Diving deep into player ownership expectations for 3/10/20 NBA DFS contests.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on. We will be using FanDuel for this article due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings
Keep in mind that this article is done mid-day for each large slate and ownership projections can change sometimes drastically as the day goes on.
Verdict: Good Chalk – Shaq Harrison has also been an amazing value over the past three games as he has produced 7x value or higher in each. The usage isn’t super high on Harrison, but he has averaged 32 minutes per game and should see that again tonight. The Cavs are an elite match-up for point guards as they rank dead last in fantasy points allowed per game and defensive efficiency to point guards. Coby White is grabbing his first career start tonight, which shouldn’t mean too much here as they shared the court plenty as is. Harrison has the ability to fill up the stat sheet as he has had five combined steals/blocks over his last two games. That is a small sample, but it is also the sample in which he has played full starters minutes at over 34 a game. There is always risk in calling a Bulls player good chalk, but at still just $4,900 I am fine taking the dive here. The only slight issue I have with this play is Coby White is also in play for me tonight and though you can, I don’t think rocking a two Bulls PG spot is optimal. Though time will tell there.
Verdict: Undecided – Don’t let the undecided tag get it twisted for you as I love the Rockets and their 129 team total tonight. But judging by his ownership percentage, everyone else does too. The TWolves have a very poor interior defense and I can see this being one of the rare games where Westbrook and Harden both have huge nights. However, at 39% projected ownership if I am going to take a stand on a high owned player it will probably be the one who is also the most expensive on the slate.
Verdict: Bad Chalk – Gay has become chalk based off his last games performance in which he shot the ball 19 times (season-high). But with LaMarcus Aldridge probable for tonight, and Dejounte Murray is the only other injury for the Spurs, I don’t see the appeal here. Lyles and Aldridge should fill the size minutes, while I expect Derrick White and Patty Mills to fill the guard minutes. This leaves Gay in the same role he has been in all season, which aside from what seems to be an outlier of last game, isn’t that appealing.
Verdict: Good Chalk – I’ve mentioned in every article that I have published today that Robert Covington is one of my favorite plays on the slate. Not only is he rocking a 129 team total with the rest of the Rockets, but he is also affordable at just $6,200 and he is facing his old team, the Timberwolves. Covington has hit 5.5x value in seven of his last ten games and holds a floor of around 3x. This is also a Rockets team on a losing streak holding down the six seed in the west. For the price compared to the team total, this feels like one of the better plays on the slate tonight.
Verdict: Good Chalk – With no Tristian Thompson on the court, Andre Drummond is averaging 27.5 points, 15 rebounds, 2.5 assists, two steals, and two blocks in 34.4 minutes of action as a Cav. Drummond has at least 57 fantasy points in each of those games. Tonight he faces a Bulls team which is one of the best match-ups for centers as this season they have the second-worst team rebounding rate and are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to centers. We also get Drummond at just $8,200 which is $3,800 cheaper than his season high.