The Primer – DFS NHL Edition – Thursday, February 27

The Primer – DFS NHL Edition for Thursday, February 27

Games on the Main Slate: 10

Games with Projected 6.5 goal totals: TOR/FLA (7), CHI/TB, VAN/OTT, WAS/WPG

Favourites that are -165 or greater: TB, BOS, MIN, STL

Where to Expect Chalk

  • Tonight, is a night where I expect a few teams to dominate ownership levels (keep in mind that it is a 10 game slate, so don’t expect NBA level concentration from a chalk standpoint).  Toronto/Florida has a whopping 7 goal projected total, and I expect the top two lines and top PP unit for each squad to be among the highest owned stacks on the board.
  • Tampa Bay’s top line and top PP unit should be among the highest owned stacks tonight as well for the -220 favourite Bolts, playing on home ice against a Blackhawks team that struggles to defend.
  • I’d expect the stack against the Sens theme to be popular with the masses yet again tonight – and as a result, I think you’ll see a lot of ownership on the big guns for the Canucks as they travel to Canada’s capitol to take on the Sens.

Some Edges to Attack Tonight…

  • Don’t sleep on the top line and PP unit for the Wild tonight as they take on a Red Wings team that is dismal at keeping pucks out of their net.  They are affordable, and even though Minnesota isn’t a team that many traditionally stack, they are in a prime spot for a big Thursday night.
  • I could see Ovie and company slipping under the radar with so many elite offences in great spots tonight.  The Caps travel to Winnipeg to take on the Jets in what should be a run and gun affair.  From a game theory standpoint, this game has a lot of appeal as I think it will see ownership levels far lower than the likes of TOR/FLA, TB & VAN.
  • Talking about that TOR/FLA game, I prefer loading up on the Panthers tonight vs. the Leafs.  With D Jake Muzzin out, the Leafs already suspect defence core is decimated with injuries – and I think they struggle to keep pucks out of the net in this one.  Just know that FLA will be a very popular team to stack tonight, so don’t think that you’ll be pulling a fast one on the field here.

Some Spots to Consider Fading…

  • I like an under-weight position on Vancouver tonight.  While I can’t argue the spot they are in, I just simply prefer some other options on the board tonight – and I think we’ll see the Sens play with enough compete to keep them from putting up large-field GPP winning numbers from any one stack.
  • Boston are big home favourites, but the game has a projected total of 5.  I love stacking BOS1/BOS PP1 on a lot of nights, but this won’t be one of them as they play at home against a stingy Dallas team that does a great job of playing boring defensive hockey.
  • On slates this deep, I like to condense the field a little bit – and tonight is no exception.  I have no problem eliminating skaters from NYR/MTL and NYI/STL from my player pool to narrow things down a little bit.  I’d be surprised if we saw any stacks here being a part of large-field GPP wins.  I think both games will be highly competitive and likely low scoring affairs.

Best of luck for those playing today and here’s to hoping it’s a good night for you in your NHL DFS action! 

If you have any questions at all, you can find me on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy!

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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