The Primer – DFS NHL Edition – Tuesday, February 11

The Primer – DFS NHL Edition for Tuesday, February 11

Games on the Main Slate: 11

Games with Projected 6.5 goal totals: WPG/NYR, OTT/COL

Favourites that are -165 or greater: BUF, TOR, COL

Where to Expect Chalk

  • With 11 games on the slate, I expect ownership levels to be fairly spread out – though there are a few spots where I expect to see some chalk:
    • Colorado check in as -290 favourites in a game with a projected total of 6.5 goals, and I think their top line and top PP unit will be the highest owned stacking option tonight as they host Ottawa.
    • The Leafs top line should be popular tonight as Matthews, Marner and Johnsson may see a slight uptick in minutes tonight with John Tavares fighting off a flu bug.  You can toss in Tyson Barrie on the back-end for another piece of the top PP unit.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see Johnsson get some run on the top PP unit if Tavares happens to sit.
    • Look for the top PP unit for the Jets and the top line and PP unit for the Rangers to be among the top 5 stacks in terms of ownership levels tonight in a game with a projected total of 6.5 goals.

Some Edges to Attack Tonight…

  • The first decision you will have to make tonight is what to do with COL1.  I like an over-weight position as they are in as good of a spot as you can have on home ice against the lowly Sens.
  • I continue to like an over-weight position on NJ2 and the top PP unit for the Devils as they host a struggling Panthers team tonight that has been struggling to defend.  Blake Coleman is priced up, but is on some kind of run right now.
  • I could see the TB/PIT game turning into a bit of a track meet, and I like the idea of running combinations of game stacks between the top two lines for each team.
  • Don’t sleep on the top line and PP unit for the Oilers, playing on home ice against the Blackhawks tonight in a game that I think will be among the highest scoring contests of the Main Slate tonight.

Some Spots to Consider Fading…

  • I like a game theory fade on TOR1 against Arizona.  While they are in a good spot on home ice, on such a deep slate, I’d be surprised if this line went off to the point where they broke the slate.
  • On a deep slate, I often like to box out the 5.5 projected total games, which is something I will do tonight to narrow down the player pool.  The only exception to this is Buffalo’s top line and PP unit as they are in a great spot on home ice against the Red Wings.

Best of luck for those playing today and here’s to hoping it’s a good night for you in your NHL DFS action! 

If you have any questions at all, you can find me on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy!

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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