DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC 246 – January 18, 2020

TOP PLAYS IN THE $8,000-9,000 RANGE


Due to cancellations, the first UFC contest of the new year presents challenges in it’s limited number of fighters. I’ve identified some top plays for fighters under $9K in salary on Saturday.

SODIQ YUSUFF (DK $8,500) – Sodiq Yusuff has been dominate as a UFC fighter. In his three fights in the octagon, he is undefeated with two first round KO’s worth 117.0 and 101.5 FP. His overall average is 99.3 FPPF making him the second highest average of all fighters on Saturday. He also has the fourth best odds to finish inside the distance of all fighters on this card. He is priced very well at just $400 over the average salary.

Caveman’s advice: Yusuff figures to be used a lot in DFS competitions this week. At this price, he deserves to be in most of your lineups. Give him lots of play in the range of 50-60% for multi-entry contests. Given the cancelled fights and limited options, he is a top candidate to be used even more than that.

(At the time of this writing, Sodiq Yusuff is -139 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 61.04 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

MAURICE GREENE (DK $8,400) – Maurice Greene can be a little hard to pin down as a fighter. Over four UFC fights, he is 3-1 with a first round KO, a first round submission, a win by split decision and a first round loss by KO. It would be nice if he had a more consistent track record but he does have first round finishes and he possesses a high ceiling having scored 134.5 FP in his last win. His opponent, Aleksei Oleinik, is worth consideration as well, but he is coming off consecutive losses and looks as though at 42 years old, his age may be a factor.

Caveman’s advice: I believe that Oleinik is at the end of his career and that Greene is in a good place here to score. It would be reasonable to give both fighters a share of lineups in multi-entry contests, but Greene deserves a much higher percentage and should be getting in the range of 40-60% exposure.

(At the time of this writing, Maurice Greene is -125 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 58.37 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

SABINA MAZO (DK $8,000) – Although she is 1-1 overall in the UFC, in Sabina Mazo’s last fight in August of last year, she dominated Shana Dobson, scoring 108 significant strikes, 3 advances, and 4 takedowns finishing with a fantasy score of 113.0. She is the slightest favorite on Saturday and faces a tough opponent in JJ Aldrich. Mazo is carrying a below average salary as a favorite at a flat $8K.

Caveman’s advice: Aldrich is going to be a challenge for Mazo, but her lower salary as a favorite combined with a demonstrated ability to score well above the century mark, makes Mazo the much better play here. Aldrich has never scored more than 80 FP and is not a threat to finish. Play Mazo at a great price and pass on Aldrich altogether. Give Mazo 30-40% exposure in your lineups.

(At the time of this writing, Sabina Mazo is -112 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 58.76 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

ASKAR ASKAROV (DK $8,700) – This matchup is a good one for Askar Askarov. Askarov is a submission expert with seven of his ten wins coming by submission. His opponent, Tim Elliott, has been submitted in four of his nine losses. Elliott is 2-3 over his last five fights. Askarov is undefeated in eleven fights, but has yet to win in the octagon having finished in a draw in his UFC debut. It was the only time he has gone the distance. In the rest of his fights he has finished his opponent prior to the final bell.

Caveman’s advice: This is a clear cut case of strength versus weakness. Askarov’s ability to submit opponents figures to be the story of this fight. Look for a second round submission by the Russian fighter. Askarov is one of my favorite plays this weekend and he should be used quite a bit. Give him 70-80% exposure in multi-entry contests. At $8,700 he is priced beneath his value and potential to finish this one early.

(At the time of this writing, Askar Askarov is -143 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 65.46 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups in 2020!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

Check Also

Good Chalk Bad Chalk Ownership Insights for NBA DFS 2/12/20

Diving deep into player ownership expectations for 2/12/20 NBA DFS contests. In this article, we …