The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – December 6, 2019

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on December 6, 2019

In this article, we are going to go position by position breaking down the top plays and values for you. We will be using FanDuel’s pricing and positions due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings.

Point Guard

Top Play

Terry Rozier

First slate in forever without Trae or Luka at the PG position which means we don’t have the definitive superstar on the slate which opens up a whole lot of players for us. That being said I’m going to go with Rozier who after a horrific start has been feeling it lately and coming off his best game of the season. Tonight, he draws the Nets who concede the most points in the entire league to point guards and an active PG like Rozier should be no different.

Others to consider: Spencer Dinwiddie, Jeff Teague

Top Value

Ish Smith

With Jordan McCrae and Isaiah Thomas, Ish Smith will handle all the minutes he can at this punt price tag. Last night he played 34 min in a great home win against the 76ers but now they are on a back-to-back in Miami. The spot scares me as the Heat have a pretty good defense. Also, Miami isn’t a bad spot to party after a big win. Risks aside tho, if this game remains competitive at all, Smith will be the top value among the point guards

Others to Consider: Yogi Ferrell (if Cory Joseph is out), Kendrick Nunn

Shooting Guard

Top Play 

Jimmy Butler

Butler gets a fantastic match-up against the Wizards who give up points to everyone but especially shooting guards where they give up the 6th most points in the league. Butler has been fantastic this year with a 25.6% usage rate and a 1.28 FPPM on the season. The only thing that can stop him is if the Wizards don’t show up after their big home win last night. In a 4 quarter game, love the upside Butler has.

Others to Consider:  Devonte Graham, Buddy Hield

Top Value

Dennis Schroder

With Diallo and Ferguson out, everyone is projecting Nader to be the big winner but quietly I think the winner will be Schroder. In the 90 minutes that Paul/Gallinari have played without Diallo/Ferguson, 84 have had Dennis Schroder on the court while only 11 have had Nader. Schroder is a high usage guy any time he’s on the floor so even if there are other high usage guys that isn’t a big concern. Also the Timberwolves give up the 11th most points to opposing shooting guards.

Others to Consider: Danny Green, Duncan Robinson

Small Forward

Top Play 

Lebron James

Another really strong SF slate today is headlined by Lebron James who is well, Lebron James. He is sporting a 32.1% USG rate and a 1.51 FPPM and this is a big game for the Lakers in their quest for home-court so expect Lebron to be pushed if needed. Match-up against Portland is about as good as it gets as it will either be buddy Carmelo Anthony or Rodney Hood. Either way Lebron in a great spot to mash in what should be a 4 quarter game.

Others To Consider: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Danilo Gallinari

Top Value

Josh Okogie

With Andrew Wiggins questionable, Okogie is potentially in line for huge minutes tonight in a winnable game against the Thunder. Okogie has posted a solid 0.85 FPPM this year and the Thunder give up the 10th most points to opposing small forwards so this is really all about the minutes. If he gets them he’s in a fantastic spot.

Others to Consider:  Abdel Nader, Rudy Gay

Power Forward

Top Play 

Anthony Davis

Much like Lebron, Anthony Davis will be needed tonight in this big game vs the Jazz. Anthony Davis is sporting a 30.7% USG rate and a phenomenal 1.53 FPPM. In a game where his minutes could get extended he has a huge ceiling here. The most likely match-up for AD tonight is to be guarded by Skal Labissiere or Carmelo Anthony. I know what you are thinking, that isn’t going to end very well for Portland.

Others to Consider:  Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo

Top Value

Rui Hachimura

With Thomas Bryant and Mahimni out tonight, Rui Hachimura is going to have to play as many minutes as he can handle between starting PF duties and back-up C duties. If the game stays close it’s hard to see him playing any less than 40 and and player who is sporting a 0.88 FPPM getting that type of minutes is a fantastic value option. Also the Heat are quite bad vs PF’s giving up the 6th most points in the league against them.

Others to Consider: Robert Covington, Skal Labissiere

Center

Top Play 

Mo Wagner

Much like Hachimura, Wagner is going to have to play all the minutes he can handle. He’s priced for a guy playing 20-24 minutes a night not the 30-40 that he is in line to play tonight. The match-up against Bam isn’t good but if he can stretch him out and make shots he should be effective on the offensive end of the floor. Bit more risk that people will have you believe but it’s worth taking.

Others to Consider: Kelly Olynyk, Brook Lopez

 

 

About CJ Kaltenbach

CJ has been around a long time having started playing DFS in 2014. He focuses on MLB/NBA/NFL but has become quite passionate about the XFL. CJ is originally from Boston (explains his die-hard Boston sports fandom) but currently lives in St. Louis. CJ can be reached on Twitter @TheSeigeDFS

Check Also

The NBA Rundown – FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Picks – August 9, 2020 (8/9/20)

Welcome to the NBA Rundown for FanDuel and DraftKings contests on Sunday, August 9, 2020.