Diving deep into player ownership expectations for 11/20/19 NBA DFS contests.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on. We will be using FanDuel for this article due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings
Keep in mind that this article is done mid-day for each large slate and ownership projections can change sometimes drastically as the day goes on.
Verdict: Undecided – With an eleven game slate we are going to fall into a lot of options at every position tonight. Nunn is currently projected as the top owned point guard with a slight edge over Trae Young. Nunn’s sub $6,000 price tag is leading to his high ownership and at this price I do think he is your best option. However, with Goran Dragic back from illness tonight we are going to see a slight minute dip from the 37-39 he has been seeing over his last three games. I think Nunn warrants ownership, but I don’t think Nunn warrants being chalk.
Verdict: Good Chalk – Even with the extreme price boost here I think Dinwiddie is still good chalk as long as he falls between the 30% and 38% usage rate he has seen with no Kyrie Irving. This is a great matchup against a poor defensive Hornets team and Brooklyn is currently pretty bare on play-makers. Look for Dinwiddie to continue his high usage rate.
Verdict: Bad Chalk – Prince is currently projected as an overwhelmingly large piece of chalk tonight and one that I have no interest in. Sure, the Hornets give up the most FP to small forwards, but Prince’s usage remains volatile and low even when factoring the injuries to Kyrie Irving and Caris Lavert. The injury situation in Brooklyn has not changed Prince’s minutes as he is still sub 28 in his last three games. This feels like a DvP chase and one I don’t want any part of if it remains chalk. Keep an eye on his ownership projection closer to lock to determine if he warrants tournament ownership. I much rather take a shot at Larry Nance in this spot.
Verdict: Undecided – Power forward is tough tonight as there are a lot of good options but none that I view as great ones. Leonard is overpriced when you factor in the team health of the Clippers, Porzingis usage doesn’t currently match his price, Aldridge carries a high team total but has been too volatile to really target. Adebayo is currently projected as the highest owned PF, yet that is still less than 25%. Adebayo has cracked double-digit rebounds in three straight games but his usage rate in the Miami offense just isn’t that high. This means Adebayo has been incredibly efficient, but his ceiling is going to lag behind others with the trade-off of consistency.
Verdict: Good Chalk – It is a bit surprising seeing Drummond as chalk as his numbers over the last five games have been pretty down. Drummond has failed to crack 5x value over his last five games and has seen his minutes sway between 28-and-38. The good news is he has finally seen a price drop from his $10,400 range down to $9,400 which is what is making Drummond chalky tonight. Luckily for us, this is a “get right spot” of sorts against a bad Bulls interior defense. Blake Griffin’s return to the Pistons hasn’t changed Drummond’s usage rate like some would assume, as it has only changed by a mere 2%. We will have the games where Drummond will concede some rebounds but overall his place seems unchanged.