Diving deep into player ownership expectations for week 11 NFL DFS contests for the 2019-2020 season.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on.
FanDuel: Lamar Jackson (14.8%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- At this point calling Jackson anything but a good play even at high ownership is foolish. Jackson is just racking up the fantasy points by the bunches thanks to his elite running ability. Jackson has at least 60 yards rushing in seven of his past eight games and has a rushing touchdown in four straight games. Jackson has at least 21 fantasy points in all but one game this season and should hit that mark with ease again this week.
DraftKings: Kyle Allen (13.2%)
Verdict: Bad Chalk- At one point in the week I was on Allen but the more I look at it the more I don’t like him especially at this ownership. Allen minus his first game of the season has not shown me the upside needed to win a GPP. The Falcons’ defense is not also as bad as they seem. The Falcons have only allowed two 300-yard passers this season and have held the past two quarterbacks they have faced who happen to go by the names of Drew Brees and Russell Wilson to under 16 fantasy points.
FanDuel: Dalvin Cook (39.0%)
Verdict: Undecided- I love Cook. I think I have stated my love for him several times throughout this season. Cook is also likely to have a huge game this week. With that being said I don’t know if you should be at the field with Cook this week at his salary as I feel there are better cheaper options that are projected for far less ownership. Josh Jacobs and Leonard Fouunetter are two names that come to mind without doing any really big deep diving.
DraftKings: Brian Hill (33.6%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- I am always going to play a cheap workhorse running back that is in a high powered offense and in a great match-up. That is what we have with Hill this week and I am going to be eating the chalk with Hill.
FanDuel: DJ Moore (33.9%)/ DraftKings: DJ Moore (29.3%)
Verdict: Undecided- Moore has two straight huge games for the Panthers and looks like a number one receiver. Moore is also dirt cheap for what you normally pay for a receiver putting up the numbers he is putting up. With that being said I don’t know if I like Moore or not this week as I don’t know if I like the Panthers passing attack or not. As of this moment, I am most likely going to be way underweight on the field on Moore and I would not be shocked if I ended up with zero shares of him in my 20-max contests.
FanDuel: Greg Olsen (20.0%)
Verdict: Bad Chalk- Yes, Olsen is coming off a huge game against the Packers but no he shouldn’t be chalk. That was Olsen’s first game scoring double-digit fantasy points since week three and only the second time he has seen over five targets in that time frame. The match-up against the Falcons is also not one that makes ignore bad numbers as the Falcons are not a great match-up for tight ends.
DraftKings: Darren Waller (24.9%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- Waller was my top-ranked tight end according to my models so of course, I think he is good chalk this week. You can view all the reasons why I love Waller this week in my Tight Ends Breakdown article.
FanDuel: Redskins (12.1%)
Verdict: Undecided- I don’t know how I really feel about the Redskins defense this week. They are not an elite defense and I normally like to roster elite defenses at such a volatile position. With that being said they are not a bad defense as they have at least two sacks in six of their past seven games and have at least one takeaway in all but two games this season. The Jets are also a positive match-up for defenses as their offense has sucked this season averaging the third-fewest points per game, allowing the second-most sacks and have the sixth-most giveaways.
DraftKings: Cardinals (13.3%)
Verdict: Bad Chalk- I get why all of these uber-cheap defenses are chalk as rostering them means you can spend up for the skill position plays but it doesn’t mean it is a smart move. I have seen week in and week out defenses being what decides GPP winners and even if a person minimum cashes or not. Spending down for a bad defense which the Cardinals are is not the move to make this season. If a defense no matter how cheap they are doesn’t have double-digit upside which the Cardinals don’t then you should not be rostering them.