The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – November 10, 2019

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on November 10, 2019

In this article, we are going to go position by position breaking down the top plays and values for you. We will be using FanDuel’s pricing and positions due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings.

Point Guard

Top Play

Damian Lillard

Lillard dropped 60 real life points as the top play on Friday and he keeps his top spot for this Sunday slate. Lillard has a 29.1% USG rate on the season averaging 1.22 FPPM and draws Trae Young defense which is nothing to be scared about. There are a couple other top end guards on this slate but I like Lillard the most and probably will be the lowest owned of the bunch.

Others to consider: Kyrie Irving, Trae Young, Ricky Rubio

Top Value

Raulzinho Neto

Ben Simmons got hurt very early on in the Jazz game which gives us a nice sample of their game-plan while Simmons is hurt and that involves a bunch of Neto. Neto played 30 minutes off the bench and sported a fantastic 22% usage rate vs the Jazz and then got the start against Denver. On a slate without a ton of value Neto is the safest of these options.

Others to consider: Aaron Holiday, Darius Garland

Shooting Guard

Top Play 

Devin Booker

As the Suns have improved as a team it’s meant Devin Booker doesn’t have to do every last thing to have them win games, but now his price has fallen to the point where we can get back on the train. Booker this year still has a 32% USG rate and has been averaging 1.15 FPPM which is a great rate over the 35 min a night he’s averaging. He draws a fantastic match-up against the Nets who give up the 4th most points to shooting guards on the year. I’m not gonna say he’s gonna put up 60 real life points but that kind of break the slate performance is in the range of outcomes here.

Others to Consider: Khris Middleton, Spencer Dinwiddie

Top Value

Furkan Korkmaz

Korkmaz hasn’t had the blow up game you’d expect without Simmons out but that should lower his ownership dramatically for this pace up spot against the Hornets who love to give up points to everyone. Korkmaz can get as hot as anyone which we’ve seen vs Phoenix and Portland this year. This value has risk but the upside is undeniable.

Others to Consider: DeAndre Bembry, Evan Fournier

 

Small Forward

Top Play 

Lebron James

Sometimes you need a very detailed write-up to explain why a certain player is the top play on the slate but for Lebron James it’s pretty straightforward. It’s healthy Lebron James. You don’t need to know that he has a 31.7% USG rate this year averaging an insane 1.50 FPPM while playing a ton of minutes and having taken an average of 21 shots in his last 3 games and draws a match-up against a Toronto team that has the size with Siakam to actually limit Anthony Davis so they’ll need Lebron at his best to win this game.

Others to Consider: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tobias Harris

Top Value

Tobias Harris

Sometimes the top value isn’t a cheap player and that’s what we have here with Tobias Harris whose picked up the slack since Ben Simmons was hurt sporting a 22.4% USG rate and a 1.04 FPPM and draws the best match-up in the league for SF’s taking on the very fast Charlotte Hornets. Expect Harris to rack up the rebounds in addition to the standard scoring he does.

Others to Consider: Joe Harris, Kent Bazemore

Power Forward

Top Play 

Julius Randle

It’s been rough for Randle so far this season in NY with a lack of spacing being the primary culprit but he’s simply too talented to be this cheap when he’s sporting a 27.2% USG rate and averaging 1.20 FPPM and getting a match-up against Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson which is great as neither can really protect the rim or rebound at an elite level. Coming off his best game of the year on Friday night hopefully he makes it two in this great spot against the Cavs who are giving up the 10th most points per game to PF’s.

Others to Consider: Anthony Davis, Kevin Love

Top Value

Kyle Kuzma

Kyle Kuzma is still returning from an ankle injury, he has the upside to mash his low-4k price tag in that time especially as his minutes keep trending in the right direction. In his four games this year he’s sporting a 23.9% USG rate and averaging 0.90 FPPM. In the last 3 games he’s gone from 16 to 21 to 25 minutes, won’t be long before he’s playing his full 30+ minutes a game and getting Kuzma in the 4k’s playing those sort of minutes is about as good as value gets.

Others to Consider:  Taj Gibson, Al Horford

Center

Top Play 

Bobby Portis

WIth Mitchell Robinson ruled out with a concussion, Bobby Portis obliterated off the bench in the Knicks last game against Dallas sporting a 31.8% usage rate. Like mentioned above for Julius Randle the front court of the Cavs doesn’t have the size to rattle Portis so he should be able to attack the rim again in this spot. While the 32% usage rate is probably unsustainable he should have a huge role on that 2nd unit which is even weaker with Larry Nance rotating in for one of Love or Thompson. Portis should be a strong consideration to make any lineup built today.

Others to Consider: Joel Embiid, Nikola Vucevic

 

 

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