The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – November 8, 2019

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on November 8, 2019

In this article, we are going to go position by position breaking down the top plays and values for you. We will be using FanDuel’s pricing and positions due to the multiple position eligibility for most players on DraftKings.

Point Guard

Top Play

Damian Lillard

The Clippers locked down Lillard in the 4th after a very good first 3 quarters last night but I’m going back to Lillard in this spot at home. Lillard has a 29% USG rate on the season averaging 1.21 FPPM and draws the #1 match-up for PG’s with Brooklyn giving up the most points to them on the season. The back-to-back is a slight concern but the ceiling in this spot is too much to pass up.

Others to consider: Kyrie Irving, Jamal Murray

Top Value

Raulzinho Neto

Ben Simmons got hurt very early on in the Jazz game which gives us a nice sample of their game-plan while Simmons is hurt and that involves a bunch of Neto. Neto played 30 minutes off the bench and sported a fantastic 22% usage rate. This isn’t the worlds best match up against Denver and there is some risk he plays fewer minutes today but it’s hard to pass up a starting PG at this cheap price no matter his warts due to the immense upside they bring.

Others to consider: Aaron Holiday, Michael Carter-Williams

Shooting Guard

Top Play 

C.J. McCcollum

Appears Portland as a squad is under-priced cause I’m back recommending yet another Blazer in this matchup against the Nets. McCollum has sported a 25.8% USG rate and is averaging near a fantasy point per minute. Combine this with Brooklyn giving up the 4th most points to SG and we get a situation where McCollum can absolutely obliterate his mid-tier price tag.

Others to Consider: D’Angelo Russell, RJ Barrett

Top Value

Furkan Korkmaz

When Ben Simmons left the game, Brett Brown inserted Korkmaz into the starting lineup for the 2nd half and did absolutely nothing but I’m not going to let that one poor game log get away from the fact Korkmaz has been their shooter off the bench this year taking 9+ shots in every game he played 20+ minutes in til the last Utah game. Hopefully this is a nice buy low spot on Korkmaz and he isn’t the mega chalk that he deserves to be in this spot.

Others to Consider: Evan Fournier, Dillon Brooks

Small Forward

Top Play 

Lebron James

Sometimes you need a very detailed write-up to explain why a certain player is the top play on the slate but for Lebron James it’s pretty straightforward. It’s healthy Lebron James. You don’t need to know that he has a 31.7% USG rate this year averaging an insane 1.50 FPPM while playing a ton of minutes and having taken an average of 21 shots in his last 3 games and draws a matchup against the Heat who give up the 6th most points to SF’s.

Others to Consider: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brandon Ingram

Top Value

Jarrett Culver

With Jeff Teague already ruled out and Shabazz Napier still doubtful, we are primed to get another game of PG Culver. Culver in the starting lineup sported a very solid 21.1% USG rate and played 30 min despite losing a few at the end when the game got away. He is facing a GSW team that loves to give up layups at the rim which is perfect for a slasher like Culver. I fully expect Culver to mash his price and be on a lot of winning teams.

Others to Consider: Rodney Hood, Joe Harris

Power Forward

Top Play 

Julius Randle

It’s been rough for Randle so far this season in NY with a lack of spacing being the primary culprit but he’s simply too talented to be this cheap when he’s sporting a 27.2% USG rate and averaging 1.20 FPPM and getting a match-up against Maxi Kleber. With Kleber, Powell and Porzingis, Dallas normally has 2 bigs on the floor at all times which should mean Randle keeps his max minutes. He’s going to explode soon so want to be in front of it.

Others to Consider: Anthony Davis,

Top Value

Kyle Kuzma

It’s always risky to play value players when you don’t have a clear understanding of their minutes but Kyle Kuzma is an exception to this rule as he showed last time out taking 16 shots in only 21 minutes against the Bulls. While Kuzma is still returning from an ankle injury, he has the upside to mash his low-4k price tag in that time. In his 3 games this year he’s sporting a 23.9% USG rate and averaging 0.90 FPPM. In this elite match-up against the Heat who are giving up the 6th most points to PF on the season he is primed to build on that great game vs the Bulls.

Others to Consider: Nemanja Bjelica, Royce O’Neale

Center

Top Play 

Bobby Portis

WIth Mitchell Robinson ruled out with a concussion, Bobby Portis is in line to either start or play more minutes off the bench. Portis has always been a high usage player and this season is no different with a 24% USG and a 1.04 FPPM rate this season. Like I mentioned for Randle, the Mavs have 2 bigs on the court at all time which should help Portis solidify his minutes. The Mavericks also give up the 7th most points on the season to Centers. There is some variance on Portis as he isn’t the most consistent player ever but the ceiling here is undeniable.

Others to Consider: Hassan Whiteside, Karl-Anthony Towns

 

 

About CJ Kaltenbach

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