Welcome to the FC Insights Running Back Targets Article. In this post, we will be breaking down our top options and plays at the RB position for each DFS week of the 2019-2020 NFL DFS season.
In this article, I am going to give you the top eight running backs in my personal model which uses a number of factors like Vegas total, match-up, salary, etc. Please note that just because a player is not in this article doesn’t mean that I don’t like them or that they are not in my player pool.
Last Weeks Results
Based off of DraftKings scoring
- Dalvin Cook (15.60 fantasy points, 1.6x value, RB15)
- Le’Veon Bell (20.10 fantasy points, 2.6x value, RB9)
- Josh Jacobs (27.00 fantasy points, 4.2x value, RB2)
- Christian McCaffrey (40.60 fantasy points, 4.1x value, RB1)
- Aaron Jones (3.90 fantasy points, 0.6x value, RB29)
- Nick Chubb (13.10 fantasy points, 1.8x value, RB19)
- Mark Walton (7.10 fantasy points, 1.6x value, RB27)
- Derrick Henry (24.90 fantasy points, 4.4x value, RB4)
- Devin Singletary (23.00 fantasy points, 4.9x value, RB6)
Derrick Henry ($7,000 FD, $6,400 DK)
The Chiefs have allowed 139 YPG on the ground to go along with 10 touchdowns on the ground, putting Henry in a prime spot this week as the Titans take on the Chiefs. If you think that the Titans will keep the game close, it’s hard to envision Henry having a poor week for the Titans. He should be in line for another game with 15+ touches, and priced down from some of the upper-echelon options at the position, I like the spot he’s in this week.
Saquon Barkley ($8,600 FD, $8,800 DK)
Barkley was bottled up on the ground in Week 9 on Sunday night, gaining 28 yards on 14 carries – but he managed to salvage his fantasy day with a 65 yard reception late in the game. Look for the Giants to continue to funnel targets his way, especially with TE Evan Engram out this week – and as per usual, he should approach 20 carries. The Jets have done a good job at limiting yardage to opposing backs (89.25 YPG), but have allowed 10 TD’s on the ground. I think that Barkley will be one of the highest scorers at the position this week – he’s a great pivot if you don’t decide to roster McCaffrey that will save you a little bit of salary.
Marlon Mack ($7,400 FD, $7,000 DK)
Mack will feast against Miami in this one. The Colts are large, double-digit favourites – playing at home, and Mack has historically smashed value when the Colts win big. I’m expecting him to clear 20 carries in this one – and I wouldn’t be surprised if he found the end-zone more than once against a defence that has allowed 150.75 YPG on the ground. I do prefer him on FD vs. DK due to his lack of involvement in the passing game and relative higher price on DK – but he’s a rock solid option nonetheless.
Christian McCaffrey ($10,500 FD, $10,500 DK)
At this point the only question when deciding to roster McCaffrey is if doing so limits your roster construction too much. He has been on a tier of his own, and has shown to be match-up proof, unless he is playing the Bucs. Green Bay has been vulnerable against opposing backs this season – and I expect McCaffrey to have another massive week this week. You’ll just have to make the call if he limits your overall build too much at his price – but I think he’s worth it.
David Montgomery ($6,400 FD, $5,300 DK)
After very puzzling usage before the bye week (to say the least), Montgomery has been heavily featured since Matt Nagy took over play-calling duties for the Bears. This week, they face a Lions defence that has been gashed by the run, allowing over 135 YPG on the ground – and I expect Nagy to continue to lean on his rookie back. The price-point here is outstanding, and I think he is one of the better values on the board this week.
Devin Singletary ($6,700 FD, $5,000 DK)
Speaking of better values on the board, enter Singletary – who broke out in Week 9’s win with a 20-95-1 showing on the ground while chipping in 45 yards on 3 catches. He seems to have won the job clean from Frank Gore, and I expect the Bills to lean heavily on them as they drive towards the stretch run. Cleveland has allowed 141.25 YPG on the ground this year, 3rd worst in the league – and I love the spot Singletary is in this week at his price. He’s an outstanding mid-priced option this week with a high floor and ceiling.
Aaron Jones ($7,600 FD, $7,400 DK)
Jones busted a week ago, but is primed for a bounce-back effort against the Panthers, who have been one of the worst defences against opposing RB’s, including allowing 14 rushing TD’s, the worst mark in the league. I’m concerned a little bit that his targets will take a hit with Davante Adams’ return – but with that said, his ceiling is as high as any back in the league – and you’ll want to make sure you have significant exposure to him in your builds this week. He can break a slate in a match-up like this if you don’t have significant exposure.
Damien Williams ($6,000 FD, $4,900 DK)
Williams did most of his damage a week ago on a 91-yard TD run, and is far from a safe play as one of the most volatile RB’s this season – but with Mahomes set to return, I expect Damien to build off of last week’s effort, despite the tough match-up. The price point is outstanding, and I expect him to be utilized in the passing attack, something he excelled in during the stretch run last year and through the Chiefs’ playoff games. I love the upside here at this price – and I’m expecting his ownership levels to be kept reasonable due to the volatility we’ve seen from him this year.
Ronald Jones ($6,300 FD, $4,300 DK)
Bruce Arians announced that Jones will be the feature back for the Bucs – and fantasy players rejoiced. He has limited involvement in the passing game puts a ceiling on his production – but going up against the Cardinals this week, it’s hard not to salivate at the potential here. Expect him to approach 20 touches again this week, and at an affordable price – he’s a rock solid option.
Narrow Miss: Alvin Kamara
I won’t argue with anyone who is wondering why I didn’t include Kamara this week. He is in as good of a spot as anyone. The Saints are 13 point favourites playing at home against the lowly Falcons – and I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw Kamara split snaps with Latavius Murray as Kamara gets eased back into things.