The Primer – DFS NHL Edition for Tuesday, November 5th
The last two nights have been short slates – and last night’s was just wild with BOS1 going off and lots of unpredictable things playing out, like chalk netminder Pekka Rinne netting an assist. Tonight, we have a traditional deep slate – which should help spread out ownership levels. Let’s look at some ways to attack building line-ups for Tuesday night.
Where to Expect Chalk
- Boston doesn’t have the best Vegas odds, but given the run that their top line and PP unit have been on – I expect them to still be one of the more popular options on the board, despite the fact that the Vegas line doesn’t suggest that they should be popular. I expect some people to stay on board with what has worked, continuing to ride the hot hand here.
- Toronto are home favourites (-235) in a game with an over/under of 6.5 as they host the Kings tonight. I expect the top line and top PP unit along with Frederik Andersen to be popular plays tonight in a great match-up on home ice.
- The Islanders host the Senators, who are on the second half of a back to back. I expect the top line and top PP unit for the Islanders to be popular here, along with Varlamov in net as the Isles are -270 favourites in a game with a projected total of 6.5 goals. It helps that they are cheaper to stack than the aforementioned two stacking options.
- On DraftKings, Claude Giroux is absurdly cheap when compared with FD, and given the fact that Farabee is skating on the top line and PP unit, I expect them to be popular on that site.
Some Edges to Attack
- I like the idea of getting exposure to a NJ/WPG game stack. The Devils have been playing in a lot of high scoring games of late (3 of the last 4 totals have been 8+ goals with the outlier seeing 7 scored) – and while the top lines for each team will be tough to stack together, I like the idea for MME of rotating various combinations that will get significant exposure to the top lines from each team. One nice bonus here is that the d-men on the back-end that play on the top PP unit are cheap (Vatanen for NJ and Morrisey for WPG), and help with salary relief.
- I love the Islanders tonight, and recommend an over-weight position on NYI1 stacking. I don’t particularly love Toews on the back-end, so I prefer stacking NYI1 vs. their PP unit(s).
- I expect the SJ/CHI game to be high scoring, and I love getting significant exposure to all of SJ1, SJ2, and both SJ PP units. I think they have a big night at home against the Blackhawks, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up getting lost in the weeds, ending up lower owned than they should be on such a deep slate of games tonight.
Some Places/Players I’ll be Fading
- I’ll be fading Boston tonight, despite the risk in doing so. The Habs are a pretty stout team in their own zone, and at the price point required to stack BOS1 or BOS PP1, it is pretty restrictive as far as what you can compliment them with from a quality standpoint. There’s some risk given how hot they have been running, but I have no problem opting for the field tonight vs. a BOS1 stack.
- I’m going to continue to fade TOR1 as a line stack. While Auston Matthews continues to churn out elite production – we have yet to see William Nylander and Andreas Johnsson post elite nights to go along with him. I like a market neutral exposure to Matthews (~15-20%), and a under-weight or fade position on Nylander and Johnsson.
Best of luck for those playing tonight! If you have any questions at all, you can find me on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy!