DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC ON ESPN 6 – October 18, 2019

UFC ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FIGHTS IN BOSTON


Friday nights are unusual nights for UFC and tonight’s DFS contests present opportunity for higher finishes against a reduced pool. Here are three fights that should play a significant role for these contests.

MAYCEE BARBER (DK $8,300) vs GILLIAN ROBERTSON (DK $7,900)

Undefeated Maycee Barber has her biggest test to date facing Gillian Robertson in Boston on Friday. These two fighters combine for the second highest average FPPF matchup of the event. Gillian Robertson should look to take the fight to the mat where she has three submission victories in the UFC to date. She did add a victory by second round KO in her last fight against Sarah Frota. Maycee has two UFC victories to her credit, with second round TKO’s of both Hannah Cifers and J.J. Alrdrich. This fight has all the signs of an early finish although the ultimate victor is less clear.

Caveman’s advice: Personally, I’m a fan of Maycee’s being from my home state of Colorado, however, I believe she may have met her match in Gillian Robertson. Both fighters have big score potential and need to be given a good deal of lineups in multi-entry contests. Robertson’s lower salary makes her a better play for me here and I like her experience and submission expertise against the striker Barber. Use this fight in 80-90% of multi-entry contest with a 60/40 split favoring Robertson.

(At the time of this writing, Maycee Barber is -145 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 62.80 on Fantasy Cruncher. Gillian Robertson is +120 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 53.38 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

GREG HARDY (DK $9,300) vs BEN SOSOLI (DK $6,900)

This matchup was recently added to the card as Greg Hardy was originally scheduled to fight on October 26 against Jarjis Danho. Hardy is a big favorite to finish prior to the final bell versus Ben Sosoli and is the biggest favorite to win of any fighter on Friday. I never love taking on a salary this high but expect him to deliver the scoring expectation required for it. On the other hand, Sosoli does have six of his seven victories by KO/TKO and should get some consideration in MME contests.

Caveman’s advice: I like Hardy to finish this fight in the first round. Give Sosoli some lineups in multi-entry contests for his ability to end fights but I fully expect his introduction into the UFC to be short one. Give this fight 90-100% exposure in multi-entry contest with a 90/10 split favoring Hardy. Hardy is an excellent cash play and most lineups should be built around him.

(At the time of this writing, Greg Hardy is -327 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 75.36 with Fantasy Cruncher. Ben Sosoli is +253 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 35.71 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

DERON WINN (DK $8,200) vs DARREN STEWART (DK $8,000)

Deron Winn missed weight on Thursday but the fight will proceed as scheduled on Friday. Some may believe that this is a sign of poor training on Winn’s behalf, but more often than not I find that fighters who miss weight have avoided the stress of making weight and come into fights feeling at the top of their game. He will be a narrow favorite in this matchup. Winn scored 114.5 points in his only UFC fight to date where he unleashed a flurry of strikes accumulating 169 significant strikes in a three round decision victory. Stewart has a much lower average, scoring 52.6 FPPF, but in his last three victories he has scored 90+ points with an average of 95.83 FPPF in those victories.

Caveman’s advice: This fight is very close to call with much certainty but I do like the winner’s chances to score well in this one. I do believe Winn will eventually overwhelm Stewart and will make him the better play in this matchup. Both fighters deserve lineups in multi-entry contests, however. Use this fight moderately with 50-60% exposure in multi-entry contests with a 70/30 split favoring Winn.

(At the time of this writing, Deron Winn is -132 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 58.60 on Fantasy Cruncher. Darren Stewart is +108 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 51.91 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

 

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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