Diving deep into player ownership expectations for week 7 NFL DFS contests for the 2019-2020 season.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be underweight on.
FanDuel: Matt Ryan (15.3%)/DraftKings: Matt Ryan (19.0%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- I love Ryan this week as I love him every week. Ryan is just seeing so much volume with the Falcons offense. Ryan has at least 300 yards passing in every game this season and leads the NFL in touchdown passes. This week is not the week we see Ryan suddenly have a bad game as the Rams especially if Jalen Ramsey is not able to suit up after being traded to them have a really bad secondary.
FanDuel: Leonard Fournette (41.2%)/DraftKings: Leonard Fournette (39.0%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- There are times you just have to eat the chalk and this week is one of the weeks when it comes to Fournette. Fournette is just playing that well and in that good of a match-up against the Bengals. The Bengals are allowing the most rushing yards per game, most rushing yards per attempt, have allowed the most rushing touchdowns and are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position.
FanDuel: Larry Fitzgerald (32.5%)
Verdict: Undecided- I think Fitzgerald is a great cash game play this week but I am still not sure how I feel about him in GPPs. I just have not seen the upside from Fitzgerald since the first week of the season. Since that game Fitzgerald has only gone over 70 yards receiving once, only has one touchdown and has failed to produce over 13 fantasy points. While the potential is there for a big game in a great match-up I think I personally am going to be underweight on him and will only be rostering him in my Kyler Murray lineups.
DraftKings: Cooper Kupp (25.4%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- I love Kupp this week and have him as my top-ranked wide receiver this week and even with him being expected to be so highly owned I am going to be above the field in terms of ownership with him. I just don’t see Kupp failing this week like he did last week for two reasons. The first is the fact that Kupp is good and prior to last week had four straight games with 100 yards receiving and at least 20 fantasy points. The second reason is the match-up with the Falcons. This season the Falcons rank in the bottom five in receiving yards allowed, receiving touchdowns and fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers.
FanDuel: Evan Engram (26.0%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- In case you missed it tight ends against the Cardinals are a thing. Especially tight ends that are active in their offense as Engram is. This season, Engram is averaging 6.6 catches for 74.6 receiving yards. This season the Cardinals have allowed the most receptions, most receiving yards, most touchdown receptions, and most fantasy points per game to the position. Don’t overthink this and roster Engram if you can afford him.
DraftKings: Darren Waller (27.7%)
Verdict: Bad Chalk- Waller was not even on my radar this week so I was really shocked to see him projected for such high ownership. As I do anytime I see a player projected for such high ownership that I was not looking at I go back to see if I missed something and I don’t think I did. Waller is dealing with a bit of an injury that is not expected to make him miss any time but we really don’t know if it will affect his game or not. The Packers are also not a positive match-up at all. In fact, the Packers are a bad match-up for Waller as they are allowing the six-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends and are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to receivers lined up in the slot.
FanDuel: Bills (21.2%)/DraftKings: Bills (12.2%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- Any defense against the Dolphins is good chalk. The Dolphins are just that bad. This season the Dolphins rank dead last in points per game at 8.4, have allowed the fifth-most sacks with 23, and are fifth in giveaways with 11. The Dolphins have allowed each opposing defense that has faced them to produce double-digit fantasy points and are allowing 16.6 fantasy points to the position which is most in the NFL. The only negative I can really say about the Bills defense and the only reason why I am thinking about being underweight than the field on them is the fact that the 49ers defense is cheaper and is expected to be a lot lower owned than the Bills are so I am personally leaning towards rostering them against the bad Redskins.