Welcome to the FC Insights Wide Receiver Targets Article. In this post, we will be breaking down our top options and plays at the WR position for each DFS week of the 2019-2020 NFL DFS season.
In this article, I am going to give you the top ten wide receivers in my personal model which uses a number of factors like Vegas total, match-up, salary, etc. Please note that just because a player is not in this article doesn’t mean that I don’t like them or that they are not in my player pool.
Last Weeks Results
Based off of DraftKings scoring
- DJ Chark Jr. (7.30 fantasy points, 1.3x value, WR32)
- Michael Gallup (8.80 fantasy points, 1.6x value, WR25)
- Cooper Kupp (5.70 fantasy points, 0.8x value, WR41)
- DeAndre Hopkins (16.50 fantasy points, 2.2x value, WR11)
- Julio Jones (21.80 fantasy points, 2.7x value, WR6)
- Larry Fitzgerald (12.90 fantasy points, 2.1x value, WR15)
- Michael Thomas (16.90 fantasy points, 2.2x value, WR10)
- Preston Williams (5.10 fantasy points, 1.2x value, WR42)
- Will Fuller V (9.40 fantasy points, 1.6x value, WR24)
- Amari Cooper (1.30 fantasy points, 0.2x value, WR85)
Cooper Kupp ($7,800 FD, $7,400 DK)
Kupp had an awful game last week with only 17 receiving yards but we are not expecting that kind of performance from Kupp this week. The kind of performance we are expecting from Kupp this week is the performance we saw from him in the four games prior to last week. In those games, Kupp had at least 100 yards receiving and 20 fantasy points in each game. The reason why we are expecting the bounce-back performance from Kupp this week is due to the match-up against the Falcons. The Falcons rank in the bottom five in receiving yards allowed, receiving touchdowns and fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers this season. This game is also expected to be high scoring and is the only game on the slate with a projected point total over 50 as of this writing.
Calvin Ridley ($5,500 FD, $5,300 DK)
Ridley is always a boom or bust play but I really like him to go boom this week and he is by far my favorite value wide receiver on this slate. The reason why I expect him to go boom is the match-up with the Rams. The Rams are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to receivers split out wide this season. The Rams also just traded for Jalen Ramsey who should be glued to Julio Jones assuming that he is able to play which should lead to a couple of extra targets to Ridley in a game that is expected to feature a lot of passing.
T.Y. Hilton ($7,600 FD, $5,900 DK)
Hilton doesn’t rank that high for me on FanDuel but on DraftKings he is my top-ranked wide receiver this week as his salary is a joke. Hilton should not be priced this low for two reasons. The first is Hilton is going to be healthy coming off the bye week and in his three games this season that he was 100% Hilton is averaging 6.66 catches, 65 yards, 1.33 touchdowns, and 21.16 fantasy points. The second reason is due to the elite match-up against the Texans. The Texans are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season and according to PFF’s WR/CB match-up chart Hilton has the second-best individual match-up on the slate.
Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600 FD, $6,100 DK)
Fitzgerald is not really someone that I want to roster in GPPs as I feel his upside is limited but in cash games, he is one of the best dollar for dollar plays on the slate. There are two reasons I feel this way about Fitz this week. The first is the consistency he has shown. This season, Fitzgerald has at least five catches in every game and has produced at least nine fantasy points in each game. The second reason is due to the match-up against the Giants. The Giants have allowed the third-most overall fantasy points to wide receivers this season and according to the WR/CB chart, Fitzgerald has the best individual match-up on the slate.
John Brown ($5,900 FD, $5,500 DK)
Brown has really enjoyed the move to Buffalo. Brown has at least four catches for 50 yards and nine fantasy points in each of his five games this season. This week we should see those numbers then some from Brown as he takes on the Dolphins. The Dolphins are one of the worst teams in NFL history and rank in the bottom ten in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers split out wide. The Dolphins best player Xavien Howard is also dealing with knee issues once again and there is a chance he could miss a second straight week which would be an even bigger boost for Brown.
Christian Kirk ($5,600 FD, $5,000 DK)
Kirk should return from injury this week and I like him for the same reasons why I like Fitzgerald this week as they both play almost the same role in the Cardinals offense. The reason why Fitzgerald is a bit higher in my rankings is that we are not sure if he is going to be limited this week and Fitzgerald is a bit more consistent. I will say that Kirk does have a big edge on DraftKings as he is $1,100 cheaper on that site.
Kenny Golladay ($7,100 FD, $5,800 DK)
Golladay can be a bit inconsistent but has as much upside as any wide receiver in the NFL. We have seen that upside plenty this season especially over his past four games. In those four games, Golladay has gone over 100 yards receiving twice, has three touchdown catches and has produced at least 20 fantasy points in three of the four games. This week call me crazy but I think Golladay can hit the 20 fantasy point mark once again as he takes on a Vikings team that has struggled against opposing teams top wide receivers and is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to receivers split out wide this season.
DJ Chark Jr. ($6,600 FD, $6,000 DK)
Chark continues to be underpriced for his production and if it wasn’t for the match-up he would be much higher on this list. The match-up with the Bengals believe it or not is that tough. This season they are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers and have only allowed one wide receiver to produce more than 15 fantasy points against them this season.
Will Fuller V ($6,300 FD, $6,200 DK)
Fuller followed up his huge three-touchdown performance last week by dropping three passes that looked like they were sure to go for touchdowns. While the drops lead to a disappointing day for Fuller there were some signs of encouragement to take from the performance. One of those signs was the fact that Fuller saw nine targets in that game. Fuller has now seen at least six targets in five straight weeks and has actually seen three more targets than DeAndre Hopkins over the past four weeks. This week I think the targets continue to be split between the two this week and that gives Fuller the edge in my eyes over Hopkins as he is much cheaper than Hopkins is.
Allen Lazard ($4,500 FD, $3,000 DK)
Lazard is only on my radar if both Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison are ruled out. If both players are ruled out Lazard would get a chance to build off of his Monday night performance. In that game against the Lions, Lazard caught four of his five targets for 65 yards and a score. Lazard would not only get another opportunity to make a name for himself but he is also in a great match-up. This season the Raiders are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. What really stands out to me about Lazard is both guys are out is his salary. Lazard is minimum salary on both sites and it not often you get a wide receiver who is projected for five-plus targets in a high powered offense at the minimum salary.