Diving deep into player ownership expectations for week 6 NFL DFS contests for the 2019-2020 season.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be fading.
FanDuel: Lamar Jackson (20.5%)
Verdict: Undecided- I understand why Jackson is going to be a popular play this week as he has only had one game below 21 fantasy points this season and is in an excellent match-up against the Bengals. This season the Bengals have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks and ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position. With that being said I don’t really love Jackson this week nor do I hate him and that is why I am undecided on if he is good chalk or bad chalk. I will say that I most likely will not have many shares of Jackson this week as I am very high on some of the quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Kyler Murray who are a bit cheaper than Jackson this week.
DraftKings: Matt Ryan (14.0%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- As I mentioned in the last portion of this article I am very high on Matt Ryan this week. There are couple of reasons why I am very high on Ryan. The first is just the sheer volume that Ryan is seeing. Ryan leads the league in passing attempts, has at least 43 passing attempts in all but one game this season, has at least 300 passing yards in every game this season and has at least two touchdown passes in all but one game this season. The second reason I am high on Ryan is the match-up with the Cardinals. The Cardinals have allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game, second-most passing touchdowns, and fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.
FanDuel: Leonard Fournette (31.0%)
Verdict: Bad Chalk- Fournette is affordable, seeing the volume and is producing big numbers. Those are three things that I normally would jump on when it comes to a running back especially on a slate-like this where there is no clear cut top back. With that being said I am not as high on Fournette as the field is. The reason why I am not as high on Fournette is the match-up with the Saints. The Saints have not allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 11 of 2017, are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, and play at one of the slowest paces in the NFL.
DraftKings: Le’Veon Bell (29.1%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- Bell might end up being bad chalk but I personally think he is good chalk. The reason why I think he is good chalk especially on DraftKings with their scoring is his involvement in the passing game. Bell is averaging eight targets per game which is second-most among running backs this season and has at least four catches in each game this season. The Cowboys are also the perfect match-up for a receiving running back like Bell. This season the Cowboys have allowed the second-most receptions to running backs and have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
FanDuel: Larry Fitzgerald (26.4%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- Fitzgerald is an elite value on FanDuel this week even if Christian Kirk is able to play. There are two reasons why Fitzgerald is an elite value. The first is, of course, the way he is playing. Fitz has at least five catches in every game this season and is averaging 71.6 receiving yards. The second is the match-up with the Falcons. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season, most touchdown passes to the position, and third-most fantasy points per game to the position.
DraftKings: DeAndre Hopkins (21.9%)
Verdict: Good Chalk- I was hoping that Hopkins would actually fly under the radar this week as he has not had the best of season since week one but based on ownership projections that doesn’t look to be the case. Obviously, with that last sentence, I think Hopkins is good chalk as I think he eats in this game against the Chiefs that should be extremely high scoring. I really am not getting cute here and I am eating this Hopkins Chalk all day long as I would honestly be shocked if he wasn’t one of the two highest-scoring wide receivers on this slate.
FanDuel: Travis Kelce (25.5%)/DraftKings: George Kittle (27.0%)
Verdict: Bad Chalk- I get why everyone is so high on Travis Kelce and George Kittle this week but they are both bad chalk for the same reason. That reason is the simple fact that Austin Hooper who is averaging the most fantasy points per game among tight ends this season is cheaper than both players and is playing the Cardinals. In case you forgot the Cardinals are dog crap awful in stopping tight ends. This season the Cardinals have allowed the second-most receptions, most receiving yards, most touchdowns, and most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
FanDuel: Redskins (20.1%)
Verdict: Undecided- The Redskins defense should be the chalk as they take on the bad Dolphins. The Dolphins are averaging a league-low 6.5 points per game, have allowed the fifth-most sacks with 18 and have nine giveaways this season. The Dolphins have allowed each opposing defense to produce ten fantasy points and are allowing the most fantasy points per game to defensive units. With that being said I don’t think the Redskins defense is actually good and the Dolphins offense has looked better under Josh Rosen.
DraftKings: Falcons (10.6%)
Verdict: Bad Chalk- Just because a defense is cheap doesn’t mean you should play them and that is the case with the Falcons this week. The Falcons defense is just bad. They only have five sacks on the season with three of those coming in one game, have only forced four turnovers on the season with three coming in the same game that they got the three sacks and have only scored over one fantasy point in four of their five games this season. The match-up is also not a great one either. Yes, the Cardinals have allowed a lot of sacks this season but they are not a turnover-prone team with only four giveaways on the season and should be able to move the ball at ease on this defense.