MLB Playoffs 2019 – DFS Strategy & Cheat Sheet for October 7, 2019
Breaking down some of the top plays and strategies for attacking the MLB Playoff DFS slate on FanDuel & DraftKings.
It’s a busy Monday for MLB DFS, with all 4 series hosting games. It all kicks off just after 1pm EST.
Max Scherzer didn’t end up throwing yesterday, with the Nats saving him for a crucial game 4 tilt instead. Anibal Sanchez was good for them on the whole yesterday, but the Dodgers came out crushing the ball overall and won the ball game. Scherzer is the top SP on the slate for me, now that he has an extra day’s worth of rest and the Nats are in a must-win scenario. That means he’ll get his full complement of work (however long he can go for) and will put his elite arsenal to the test in a huge game. He holds a 3.7 opponent total and 57% win probability – both are top 2 on the slate amongst SPs.
Zack Greinke has the lowest opp total at 3.5 runs right now, and is tied with Max for a 57% win%. He doesn’t bring the same K% to the table at all, but makes up for it by throwing deep into games and faces a TB club that is on the brink of elimination after losing to Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole over the weekend. TB did get to Greinke for 5 ER in late August when they faced off, so there’s some positive BvP history for TB. Between the two, I’d pay up for Scherzer. Charlie Morton is a hard guy to make an argument for here, as the price is a bit higher than I’d want it to be given where it sits relative to others, even though he does bring plenty of skill to the table. I see him as a fade altogether.
On the value side of things, Rich Hill and Luis Severino stand out to me as viable options. Particularly Severino, who looked very good in September for the Yankees and is primed to get a pretty full body of work. The Yankees lead the series 2-0, and Severino traditionally keeps his HRs against down to a minimum. Despite throwing on the road here, he brings a great K% to the table and is primed for a very good game. He’s a great pivot on FD but isn’t a must-play on DK given how Severino and Greinke are actually priced down.
The best hitting splits on the slate are:
- LHBs vs Dakota Hudson (.348 wOBA: 1.07 HR/9)
- LHBs vs Jake Odorizzi (.325 wOBA; 1.11 HR/9)
- LHBs vs Julio Teheran (.314 wOBA; 1.17 HR/9)
- RHBs vs Rich Hill (1.44 HR/9)
- RHBs vs Julio Teheran (1.28 HR/9)
By the numbers, that makes the Cardinals pretty stackable against Teheran (assuming he gets the ball on Monday here), and Yankees’ lefties are in an elite spot given their immense power (Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner expected to start and be chalky).
The Braves’ lefties are in the best overall spot as you can see by the wOBA splits for Hudson – so don’t be shy to get plenty of exposure to Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis, Matt Joyce and Brian McCann. That’s a core group of 5 plus-split hitters that are sure to be both popular but productive as well.
RHBs against Hill are intriguing as well, and the bulk of the Nats’ order is expected to be filled with them. Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Howie Kendrick, Kurt Suzuki, Brian Dozier, Michael Taylor could all be in the lineup. Should that be the case, they would be a lower owned stack.
I don’t mind a bit of exposure to the Twins here as the game total suggests we should see close to 10 combined runs – even though it won’t surprise me if NYY wins this game with ease and still covers the over.
The FC Cruncher Optimizer likes the cheaper SPs with a full NYY stack and some plus-split guys sprinkled in elsewhere. I do think that’s a viable place to start, but I would force in the pitcher(s) you like and make sure the right values are also being leveraged in the great match-ups that do present themselves today. I also worry that you’ll need to have the right ATL/STL exposure to be fully optimal as some of the NYY bats are in tougher vs Odorizzi than some may realize (RHBs in particular).
Check out our cheat sheet below for other key plays we feel very good about on this slate.
$ Tier P C1B 2B 3B SS OF High Zack Greinke (9.1k / 16.70) (10.3k / 29.74) Freddie Freeman (4.6k / 10.18) (4.1k / 13.28) Ozzie Albies (4.4k / 9.01) (3.3k / 11.75) Alex Bregman (4.7k / 11.18) (4.2k / 14.58) Trea Turner (5k / 11.05) (4.3k / 14.41) Aaron Judge (4.9k / 13.85) (4.5k / 18.06) Max Scherzer (9.7k / 18.84) (11k / 33.57) Ronald Acuna (5.4k / 11.35) (4.3k / 14.81) Medium Luis Severino (8.6k / 12.57) (8.4k / 22.39) Kurt Suzuki (3.9k / 5.10) (2.6k / 6.65) Jose Altuve (4.1k / 10.18) (4k / 13.27) Anthony Rendon (4.5k / 10.46) (4.3k / 13.64) Jorge Polanco (4.3k / 9.11) (3.4k / 11.88) Brett Gardner (4.1k / 10.46) (3k / 13.64) Paul Goldschmidt (4.2k / 9.56) (3.9k / 12.46) Kolten Wong (3.9k / 7.67) (2.6k / 10.00) DJ LeMahieu (4.8k / 12.82) (3.9k / 16.71) Marcell Ozuna (4.3k / 9.44) (3.7k / 12.31) Yadier Molina (3.7k / 6.90) (2.8k / 9.00) Austin Meadows (4.3k / 8.39) (3.3k / 10.94) Yordan Alvarez (4.6k / 9.72) (4k / 12.68) Low Brian McCann (3.2k / 4.48) (2.6k / 5.84) Matt Carpenter (4k / 6.34) (2.8k / 8.27) Didi Gregorius (3.9k / 6.26) (3.3k / 8.16) Matt Joyce (3.2k / 5.09) (2.3k / 6.63) Howie Kendrick (4.3k / 7.49) (2.7k / 9.76) Tommy Edman (4.9k / 6.31) (3.2k / 8.23) Giancarlo Stanton (3.9k / 10.08) (3.7k / 13.14) Nick Markakis (3.5k / 6.64) (2.8k / 8.65) Michael Taylor (3.4k / 3.93) (2.2k / 5.12)
Best of luck out there!