DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 160 – September 28, 2019


Fighters priced $9,000 and up in salary should not disappoint this week. Here are my top value plays for fighters priced under $9K for this week’s DFS contests.

MARC DIAKIESE (DK $8,500) – Diakiese isn’t my favorite value play this week, but he comes into Saturday undervalued due to losing three of his last four fights. They were quality losses, however, including defeats at the hands of Dan Hooker and Drakkar Klose (a narrow loss by split decision). His stock is slightly down but he goes into Saturday as the favorite over Lando Vannata. In his four victories in the octagon he carries an average of 92.0 FPPF. In his most recent fight he scored 92.5 fantasy points tallying 63 significant strikes, 2 advances, 3 takedowns and 1 knockdown versus Joe Duffy in March of this year.

Caveman’s advice: I prefer to pass on Diakiese in cash plays but find him a good value for multi-entry contests on Saturday. Give him 30-40% play in your lineups.

(At the time of this writing, Marc Diakiese is -156 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 61.58 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

ALEX OLIVEIRA (DK $8,800) – Oliveira deserves to be a bigger favorite here, but has been given cautious odds here due to the fact he is fighting in Denmark against Danish fighter Nicolas Dalby. Dalby couldn’t cut it in the UFC where he had a record of 1-2-1 from May of 2015 through September of 2016. He returns to the UFC after three years on Saturday and finds himself back in the octagon due mainly to his nationality. Oliveira should get right after two losses leading up to this fight. Prior to these losses he had won five straight with an average of 93.5 FPPF over that span.

Caveman’s advice: Oliveira is in a good spot here. He is a veteran fighter who will keep the crowd out of things. Look for a dominant performance from the Brazilian. Give him 40-60% play in multi-entry contests and feel confident in using him as a solid cash play on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Alex Oliveira is -143 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 62.64 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

GILBERT BURNS (DK $8,300) – Gilbert Burns fights on Saturday with the fourth highest FPPF of all fighters on Saturday. At 77.9 FPPF the only fighters with higher averages than Burns are all priced over $9K in salary. His high average is due largely to his ability to finish fights with 5 KO’s and 8 submissions to his record (his overall professional record is 16-3). He fights against submission specialist, Gunnar Nelson who may negate his grappling but doesn’t have the same striking capacity that Burns possesses. Nelson is also a decent value as his average is 71.7 FPPF giving him the 6th highest average of all fighters on Saturday.

Caveman’s advice: Burns is priced very well for a fighter with his scoring ability. In fact, both fighters in this match deserve play in multi-entry contests. Give this fight 60-70% exposure in multi-entry contests with a 70/30 split favoring Burns.

ION CUTELABA (DK $7,800) – Cutelaba brings significant value to DFS contests due to his finishing potential at such a low salary. He is a slight underdog in this fight and will have to overcome Khalil Rountree Jr to score well. This is no guarantee of victory for Cutelaba but the winner of this fight should score very well and current odds make this the closest fight of the night. In his fourteen professional victories, Cutelaba has won by KO/TKO eleven times as well as two wins by submission.

Caveman’s advice: This fight looks to be one of the highest scoring fights of the entire evening. Cutelaba has the edge in both finishing and salary and should get more play than Rountree in multi-entry contests for these reasons. Give this fight 70-80% exposure with a 60/40 split favoring Cutelaba and his lower salary.

(At the time of this writing, Ion Cutelaba is -104 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 55.67 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups! 

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and ESPORTS. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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