Welcome to the FC Insights Quarterback Targets Article. In this post, we will be breaking down our top options and plays at the QB position for each DFS week of the 2019-2020 NFL DFS season.
In this article, I am going to give you the top five quarterbacks in my personal model which uses a number of factors like Vegas total, match-up, salary, etc. Please note that just because a player is not in this article doesn’t mean that I don’t like them or that they are not in my player pool.
Last Weeks Results
Based off of DraftKings scoring
- Matthew Stafford (31.60 fantasy points, 5.9x value, QB3)
- Jameis Winston (10.06 fantasy points, 1.5x value, QB22)
- Jacoby Brissett (16.50 fantasy points, 3.1x value, QB15)
- Dak Prescott (36.40 fantasy points, 6.2x value, QB2)
- Patrick Mahomes (30.32 fantasy points, 4.2x value, QB4)
Tom Brady ($7,800 FD, $6,400 DK)
Brady carved up the Steelers defense in week one for 341 yards and three scores on his way to 28.64 DraftKings points and is my no doubt top quarterback this week as he takes on the Dolphins. The Dolphins are in full tank mode and have very few if any talented players. Last week against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens who are not known to be an elite passing team the Dolphins allowed 378 passing yards and six scores after allowing the 12th most passing yards per game a year ago. Brady for as good as he looked last week should only be better this week as the Pats add another dangerous weapon to their passing game as Antonio Brown will be making his debut.
Derek Carr ($6,600 FD, $5,100 DK)
Carr didn’t have a great game on Monday Night from a fantasy perspective as he only threw one touchdown but he looked excellent completing 84.6% of his passes for 259 yards against a Broncos defense that allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks a year ago. This week I am expecting Carr to have an even bigger fantasy game as he takes on the Chiefs. Last season the Chiefs defense allowed the second-most passing yards per game and second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks as teams passed the ball to play catchup and it looks like that is going to be the case once again this season. In week one against a Jags team that was lead by Gardner Minshew after Nick Foles went down with an injury early, the Chiefs allowed 347 passing yards and three scores. What I love the most about Carr is his salary as Carr is dirt cheap on both sites.
Lamar Jackson ($8,200 FD, $6,700 DK)
Jackson is the talk of the NFL after his week one performance. In that game against the Dolphins, Jackson showed he can beat teams with more than just his legs as he threw for 324 yards and five scores on his way to 36.56 fantasy points. While that performance was an excellent one I doubt we see that kind of performance again as Jackson only threw the ball 20 times in that game and shouldn’t throw the ball much more even in games that are close. With that being said the upside is there for Jackson with his rushing ability and the match-up this week is an excellent one against the Cardinals. The Cards are still going to be without their top two corners this week and were shreaded by Matthew Stafford and the Lions last week. The Cardinals will also likely be playing at an even faster pace this week which is going to mean more plays for the Ravens who ran the most plays per game last season and were only behind the Cardinals and Lions who played an extra quarter after tieing in plays run last week.
Josh Allen ($7,500 FD, $5,300 DK)
This is more of a DraftKings play than FanDuel as I don’t love Allen’s salary on FanDuel. On DraftKings, however, Allen is my top-ranked quarterback as he is mispriced. Allen continues to have bad real-life games while having really good fantasy games. Allen produced 19.96 DraftKings points last week despite throwing two picks and now has at least 19 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games. This week we should expect Allen to reach at least that mark as he takes on a bad Giants secondary which allowed 405 passing yards and four scores to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys last week.
Patrick Mahomes ($9,000 FD, $7,500 DK)
Mahomes did what he seems to do every game in week one passing for 378 yards and three scores on his way to over 30 DraftKings points. Mahomes has now started 18 career games in the regular season. In those games which includes one start at the end of his rookie season, Mahomes is averaging 319.9 passing yards, 2.94 touchdown passes, and 27.9 DraftKings points. This week we should expect another big Mahomes game as he takes on the Raiders. Mahomes averaged 25.7 DraftKings points against the Raiders a year ago and as a team, the Raiders allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position. The only drawback to Mahomes once again this week is his salary. Mahomes is by far the most expensive quarterback on this slate and just like last week I feel there are several other quarterbacks who have a chance to keep up with Mahomes making it hard to justify spending up for him.