DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC 242 – September 7, 2019

VALUE PLAYS FOR UFC IN THE UAE


With only $50,000 of salary to spend on lineups, every dollar spent counts. It is not enough to play fighters with strong winning and scoring potential, it is also imperative to lock down fighters that are priced well and will bring the most bang for the fantasy buck. Let’s examine some players with good value on Saturday.

DON MADGE (DK $8,700) – It should be said that Don Madge has only one UFC fight to his credit and that his 100.5 point production in that fight isn’t much of a sample size to work from. His opponent, Fares Ziam, has no UFC experience, however, and will make his debut against Madge who has five early finishes over his last five fights. In those five fights, Madge has three first round KO’s, one second round KO and one submission. Madge is not only the betting favorite here, but he is also has the fifth best odds to finish inside the distance of all fighters Saturday. Madge has a lot of potential here for a fighter well under $9K in salary.

Caveman’s advice: Avoid overplaying Madge here, but feel free to give him a fair amount of usage in DFS contests. He is a decent cash play but is a must play in multi-entry contests. I would use him in 50-60% of these contests. He presents good scoring potential and is priced well.

(At the time of this writing, Don Madge is -174 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 63.65 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

ANDREA LEE (DK $8,800) – Lee has scored progressively better in each of her three UFC contests to date. With scores of 77.5, 85.5 and 97.0, she remains undefeated against UFC competition. She faces a veteran opponent in Joanne Calderwood on Saturday. Calderwood is 5-4 against UFC competition losing three of her last five. Calderwood likes to throw strikes and push the pace of fights. Lee is the better striker of the two and should maintain an edge on her feet, but she is likely to dominate if the fight goes to the mat. She is fully capable of submitting her opponent in a grappling forward match.

Caveman’s advice: Lee can score on her feet as well as through advances and takedowns. I expect her to continue the consistent scoring and think she may eclipse the century mark for the first time in this one. She is an excellent cash play at this salary and makes an enticing multi-entry play as well. Give her 40-50% exposure in these contests.

(At the time of this writing, Andrea Lee is -228 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 69.54 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

ZAK CUMMINGS (DK $7,900) – Zak is a small dog in this fight with three submissions in his last five fights. He fights Omari Akhmedov who is 6-3-1 against UFC competition. Cummings has the shorter odds of the two fighters to finish inside the distance and has the highest scoring potential in this fight.

Caveman’s advice: Priced under $8K, Cummings brings good value for an underdog. In the range of outcomes that are possible here, Cummings is more likely to put up bigger numbers than Akhmedov and I like him as a multi-entry play. Give him 30-50% exposure for his value at a low salary.

(At the time of this writing, Zak Cummings is +101 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 53.40 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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