The Cruncher List for Week 1: FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Advice & Picks | Game-By-Game Analysis

The Cruncher List | Week 1 FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Advice, Tips & Picks.

Here to help you build the best possible FanDuel & DraftKings NFL Week 1 Line-up

If you are new to the Cruncher List – thank you for reading our game by game breakdown of the Main Slate of action for the season’s first Main Slate! If you are returning, you know the drill.

I will be breaking down each of the upcoming NFL games, providing my thoughts on who makes for good cash game plays on FanDuel and DraftKings.

I will note good picks for the week, and the options I feel are the best of the best… the guys who make The Cruncher List.  

I will be updating this piece throughout the week – so please check back for updates as they become available!

Los Angeles Rams (-1) @ Carolina Panthers, Total: 50

Los Angeles Rams – Projected total: 25.5

The Rams check in with a fairly high projected total this week, going up against a Carolina defence that should be a solid unit overall on the season.  On the surface, this total seems a little bit light compared to most of the totals that we saw from the Rams last year, and as is usually the case – I think that a number of options here are worth consideration.

The passing game focuses around QB Jared Goff and the trio of WR’s that the Rams will roll out: WR Brandin Cooks, WR Robert Woods, and WR Cooper Kupp.  Woods is as steady as they come and his a high floor cash game option – while Cooks tends to garner more attention than him, Woods is my preferred option for Week 1 out of this pair.  All reports are glowing for Cooper Kupp through the pre-season.  He looks ready to roll and while there have been some rumours floating around about a snap limit, I still think he is worth a shot.  Keep in mind he was the #2 fantasy scorer at the time of his ACL tear a year ago.  It goes without saying, but given the fact that I like the trio of Rams WR’s, Jared Goff is in play as well – and you’ll see him lower owned than some of the more chalky options at QB this week.

As for the running game, I have no problem sitting it out this week.  Reports are positive on Todd Gurley through the pre-season, however – reports were also indicating that he wasn’t hurt in the Rams post-season run a year ago too.  I’ll be fading the Rams RB’s this week (Gurley, Darrell Hednerson and Malcolm Brown).

The Cruncher List

  • WR Cooper Kupp
  • QB Jared Goff

Good Plays

  • WR Robert Woods

Carolina Panthers – Projected total: 24.5

The Panthers are slight home dogs this week in a game that should be high scoring for the Main Slate, putting them in a very interesting position.  I haven’t heard much buzz for Week 1 DFS purposes surrounding the likes of QB Cam Newton and WR D.J. Moore and WR Curtis Samuel – with the majority of players strongly considering paying up for RB Christian McCaffrey, who I projected to be the highest owned ‘high spend’ player of the week – and rightly so.  The only downside for CMac in this one is the fact that he will be chalky.

Moore and Samuel are intriguing, especially at their price points.  I expect them, along with CMac to see the vast majority of the targets from Newton this year – and with Moore and Samuel being similarly priced, I like the game theory option of plugging in Samuel at what I think will be lower ownership levels if you want to roster just one.  Both should see plenty of usage, and are in play this week.

As for Cam, when healthy – he reamins someone to consider every single week – and this week is no exception.  Based on the price point of some other options, he just misses the Cruncher List – but if you locked significant exposure to him into your rosters, I wouldn’t blame you one bit.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Christian McCaffrey

Good Plays

  • QB Cam Newton
  • WR Curtis Samuel
  • WR D.J. Moore

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns (-5), Projected total: 45.5

Tennessee – Projected Total: 20.25 points

The Titans have a low projected total, playing in what will be a hostile environment in Cleveland for a crowd that has had this game penciled into their calendars since the off-season hype skyrocketed in April.  The Titans are a boring offence to target, and unless you think RB Derrick Henry runs wild on them, I wouldn’t recommend rostering anyone else this week.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • RB Derrick Henry

Cleveland – Projected Total: 25.25 points

RB Nick Chubb should be featured plenty in a game that I actually like to go under the projected total.  Expect him to see very high usage over the first half of the season – and based on his high floor as a result, he’s an excellent back to consider, especially at his price point.  I expect him to be more involved in the passing game than most, giving him a nice boost, especially on DK if this holds true.  He’s an elite RB play this week.

The Titans ranked 21st in football in terms of DVOA against the pass a season ago, and while I’d love to play narrative street with OBJ in his first game as a Brown – I am a little worried about his hip injury and that it may hobble him a little bit.  As I mentioned earlier, I think this game will likely go under the total, and while there is some risk to it – I have no problem fading the Browns passing attack for some other spots that I prefer.  I wouldn’t argue if you wanted to lock and load QB Baker Mayfield, WR Odell Beckham Jr (though I would argue with Landry, whom I feel is over-priced) – but I won’t be using them in Week 1.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Nick Chubb

Good Plays

  • None

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars, Projected Total: 51.5

Kansas City Chiefs, Projected Total: 27.25

The Chiefs have the highest projected total on the board for the Main Slate in Week 1, which is a little surprising on the surface, given the fact they are on the road against a very talented defence.

A deeper look could tell you that it’s justfied.  The Chiefs have a plethora of weapons at the disposal of QB Patrick Mahomes – and if you can stomach the price point of the key cogs in the Jags line-up, there’s plenty to like here, especially from a game theory standpoint – where you have an opportunity to load up on Chiefs at what could possibly be their lowest ownership figures of the season.

WR Tyreke Hill is as close to a match-up proof WR as there is in the game.  He has the speed to burn anyone in football, and all it takes is one mis-step by an opposing DB and he can house it at any point.  He isn’t on The Cruncher List this week due to the match-up, but is a viable option.

TE Travis Kelce is another strong option, especially on FD where he is relatively cheaper.  He is the best TE in football and is a high floor, high ceiling play if you can afford him.  Given how soft pricing is in Week 1, paying up for Kelce could very well be a prudent strategy.

RB Damien Williams should be in line for a heavy workload in Week 1 as LeSean McCoy gets accustomed to the squad.  He’s an interesting game theory play as his season-long stock took a hit with the McCoy signing, and I think he’ll be owned in the single digits, but should be in line for 15+ touches in my books.  Given his ability to contribute in the passing game, it would not surprise me to see him provide owners with a great ROI this week, though please note – there is plenty of risk here.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Damien Williams (high-risk, contrarian game theory option)
  • TE Travis Kelce (FD)
  • Chiefs GPP stack

Good Plays

  • QB Patrick Mahomes
  • WR Tyreke Hill
  • TE Travis Kelce (DK)

Jacksonville Jaguars, Projected Total: 24.25

The Jags will be trying to keep pace with the high powered Chiefs – and to me, I expect them to attempt to do so largely through two options: RB Leonard Fournette and WR Dede Westbrook.  QB Nick Foles could have some appeal as well if you think this game turns into a shoot-out.

The Chiefs were dismal against the run a year ago, ranking 32nd in football in terms of DVOA against the run.  Fournette seems poised to be a bell-cow, 3-down back for the Jags this year, and it’s hard to argue with his expected workload in a game that should be high scoring.  At a price point that doesn’t break the bank, he’s a great option this week, especially if he does in fact play in the passing game.

QB Nick Foles loves to throw to the slot, which is music to the ears of WR Dede Westbrook.  I expect him to see double digit targets in this one, and his price point is a steal on both sites.  The only downside to rostering him is the fact that I expect him to be the highest owned player on the slate.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Leonard Fournette
  • WR Dede Westbrook

Good Plays

  • None

Baltimore Ravens (-6) @ Miami Dolphins, Projected Total: 39.5

Baltimore Ravens, Projected Total: 22.75

The Ravens shouldn’t face much of a challenge from Miami in this one, as the Dolphins have depleted their roster in what appears to be a flawlessly executed tank job…on paper.  Look for the Ravens to run the ball plenty in a game that should be very boring from a fantasy standpoint.  RB Mark Ingram is an elite play in this one, and RB Justice Hill could see plenty of run as well in a game that the Ravens should be able to control.

The Baltimore defence is the best play of the week.  They should make life very difficult for a talent starved offence with a offensive line in disarray.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Mark Ingram
  • Baltimore DST

Good Plays

  • RB Justice Hill

Miami Dolphins, Projected Total: 16.75

The Dolphins have the lowest total on the board, facing a stout Baltimore defence.  The Dolphins should be playing from behind in this one, and outside of WR Albert Wilson, who could be a viable punt with upside on DK for the full PPR, I don’t have much interest in any Dolphins this week.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • WR Albert Wilson (DK only)

 

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (-4), Projected Total: 47

Atlanta Falcons, Projected Total: 21.5

The match-up is a tough one for the high powered Falcons, travelling to Minnesota to take on the Vikings in Week 1.  Atlanta has no shortage of weapons, but I do think they are in tough against one of the league’s top units (Minnesota ranked 5th in DVOA against the pass and 11th against the run).  I actually thought the total in this one would check in a little higher than it did in the end, but I have no problem playing the numbers here.

Keep an eye on the status of WR Julio Jones.  I suspect he plays and doesn’t hold out (or sit out with an injury) – and if he plays, he’s always worth consideration regardless of match-up.  With that said, he doesn’t make the cut for The Cruncher List due to a tough draw against Xaiver Rhodes.  WR Calvin Ridley has a very high ceiling and it would not shock me to see him wiggle loose a time or two for significant yardage and a score, especially if Jones does in fact suit up.

RB Devonta Freeman looks poised for a 3-down role including goal-line work for the Falcons in 2019, and at his price point – he’s an attractive option, despite the tough match-up.  He makes for an interesting pivot away from some of the more chalky options at the position.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • RB Devonta Freeman
  • WR Julio Jones
  • WR Calvin Ridley

Minnesota Vikings, Projected Total: 25.5

The Vikings are playing at home this week against the Falcons, and check in with a fairly high total of 25.5 points.  Atlanta ranked 29th in the league in DVOA against the run and 30th against the pass – but keep in mind that the Falcons defence was ravaged by injuries.  While they aren’t an elite group, I do expect them to be significantly better in 2019.

With that said, Dalvin Cook looks poised to eat.  Much like Freeman, Cook looks poised to see significant 3-down usage for Minnesota, and I expect him to get a heavy workload in a tough Week 1 match-up.  He’s my favourite RB on the board – but keep in mind I won’t be alone on that front…he’ll be popular.

Keep an eye on the injury status of WR Stefon Diggs.  He has poor splits historically when he’s shown up on injury reports when he ends up suiting up – and while the sample size is small, I have no problem fading him until he bucks the trend.

Regardless of whether or not Diggs suits up, I expect heavy target share to flow the way of Adam Thielen, and in a game where Minnesota should be able to put up points, I think he’s an elite option at the WR position.

The Vikings DST is a contrarian option going up against an OL for the Falcons that looked very poor in the pre-season.  There’s risk here, but if you are looking for a low owned defence for a contrarian play, the Vikings are viable.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Dalvin Cook
  • WR Adam Thielen

Good Plays

  • DST Vikings

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (-2), Projected Total: 40.5

Buffalo Bills, Projected total: 19.25

This game should be quite dull from a fantasy standpoint.  It pits two below-average to average offensive units with pretty stout defences in a game with a low projected total.

QB Josh Allen has some contrarian appeal if you think he’ll run wild against the Jets…which I don’t think will be the case.  He will show flashes in 2019, but I don’t think this is the week I’ll be firing up exposure to Allen.  If you do want to toss in some exposure, WR John Brown and WR Zay Jones have some upside as deep threats for a QB that loves to throw the ball downfield.

RB Frank Gore should lead the backfield in touches in Week 1.  RB Devin Singletary should see his workload increase as the season wears on – but I expect him to be eased into action, even with the departure of Shady McCoy.

The Bills DST has appeal.  They had the league’s top ranked pass defence against fantasy QB’s by a wide margin in 2018 (2nd in DVOA) – and while they lack an elite pass rush, they are a strong unit and should be low owned.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • Bills DST

New York Jets, Projected Total: 20.25

Until I see the Bills defence get exposed, I have no problem continuing to fade whoever is playing them.  Look for this game to have a very slow pace (something that Miami had under Adam Gase).  We will see if he deploys the high-paced attack that they flashed in pre-season..time will tell on that front, but in this game, I expect a defensive affair with not many points going up on the board.

I don’t think that Le’Veon Bell will have a particularly effective Week 1.  I am curious to see what his usage will be under Adam Gase.  It would not shock me to see Ty Montgomery get enough touches to have Twitter blow up with frustrated Bell owners.

I like the Jets passing attack for 2019, but against Buffalo’s elite pass defence, I won’t be loading up the likes of QB Sam Darnold, WR Robbie Anderson or WR Jamieson Crowder in this one.

The Jets DST should be able to force a turnover or two from Josh Allen in this one, making them a viable option for multi-entry GPP’s.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • DST Jets

Washington @ Philadelphia Eagles (-10), Projected Total: 44.5

Washington, Projected Total: 17.25

With offensive line woes aplenty, and limited weapons – it shouldn’t be shocking to see Washington check in with a projected total only half a point higher than the Dolphins.  Along the same lines, it shouldn’t be shocking to see that I’ll be fading them this week.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • None

Philadelphia Eagles, Projected Total: 27.25

The Eagles have one of the highest totals on the board for the Main Slate this week.  Let’s break down some of the options here:

  • QB Carson Wentz is far too cheap, especially on DK where he checks in at $5,700.  He’s my favourite play on the board on DK – and is a great value option.  There is some blowout risk – however, I think that even if the game gets lopsided, Wentz will be a large driver in that.
  • WR Alshon Jeffery is questionable on the injury report, but I expect him to suit up in this one.  He’s a secondary option at the WR position.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see his snaps limited a little bit in this one, especially if the score gets out of hand.
  • TE Zach Ertz is an elite option at TE this week, though his price is more reasonable, relatively speaking on FD compared with DK.
  • As for the runningbacks, I think that both RB Miles Sanders and RB Jordan Howard will see significant run in this one.  I prefer Sanders by a wide margin over the course of the year – but due to what I envision being close to a 50/50 timeshare out of the gate this week, I think they are both secondary options in a plus match-up in this one.
  • The Eagles DST is an elite option this week going up against a dismal OL.

The Cruncher List

  • QB Carson Wentz
  • Eagles DST

Good Plays

  • RB Miles Sanders
  • RB Jordan Howard
  • WR Alshon Jeffery

Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers (-6), Projected Total: 44

Indianapolis Colts, Projected Total: 19

I am more bullish on the Colts than most – and think that the season is not completely lost for Indy.  No, I don’t think they are legit Superbowl contenders anymore with the shocking news of Luck’s retirement – but I do think they’ll be a slightly above average group.  With that said, I don’t like their chances of putting up fantasy value this week, going up against an elite defence.  I’ll be fading them in Week 1.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • None

Los Angeles Chargers, Projected Total: 25

The Chargers check in with a healthy total of 25 in Week 1, facing the Colts defence that ranked 20th in the league in DVOA against the pass and 4th against the run.  QB Philip Rivers, WR Keenan Allen and WR Mike Williams are all secondary plays in my books this week.  I expect Rivers to sling it on Sunday as the Chargers get used to life without Melvin Gordon, creating a slight uptick in passing % compared to 2018 levels.

With that said, at their price points, both RB Austin Ekeler and RB Justin Jackson have plenty of intrigue.  Look for both of them to see double digit targets with Ekeler likely catching 5+ balls, racking up PPR points.  Jackson’s price point makes him a very intriguing punt with upside, and while I wouldn’t recommend rostering both (unless you think the backs both go off) – they are both excellent options this week.  Which one you choose will likely depend on overall roster construction.

TE Hunter Henry is a borderline free square on DK.  I feel he was grossly mispriced and he could challenge Dede Westbrook for highest owned player of the week.  I’ll be off of Henry on FD at his price.

The Chargers have an elite DST, however – the Colts OL is one of the best in the business, and even though this looks like a spot where the Chargers DST could eat, I think it’s a trap.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Austin Ekeler
  • RB Justin Jackson
  • TE Hunter Henry (DK)

Good Plays

  • QB Philip Rivers
  • WR Mike Williams
  • WR Keenan Allen

Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks (-9), Projected Total: 44

Cincinnati Bengals, Projected Total: 17.5

The Bengals have a poor OL, a low projected total – and unless you want to play the volume option by rostering RB Joe Mixon, WR Tyler Boyd, or WR Damion Willis (as a complete punt for salary purposes) – I don’t think there is much to like here.  I’ll be off of them altogether, making this a pretty easy fade in my eyes.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • None

Seattle Seahawks, Projected Total: 26.5

RB Chris Carson should eat in this match-up, facing a defence that ranked 26th in football in terms of DVOA a year ago.  Look for the run heavy Seahawks to give him plenty of touches in a great match-up, and he’s an elite option for Week 1.

RB Rashaad Penny should see plenty of touches with RB Mike Davis departing, and he’s a secondary contrarian option at the RB position if you think this game gets out of hand and Carson hits the showers early.

QB Russell Wilson is a secondary option to me.  I’d be surprised if he threw the ball much in this one – but I do expect him to be very efficient when he does.  WR Tyler Lockett should see a massive % of targets from Wilson with Doug Baldwin no longer on the squad.  With that said in a game where Seattle could pass less than 25x, he’s a secondary play in Week 1 – though he does have a high floor and ceiling in my books.  He just missed the cut for The Cruncher List in Week 1.

Seattle’s DST is an elite option this week.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Chris Carson
  • Seahawks DST

Good Plays

  • RB Rashad Penny
  • WR Tyler Lockett

Detroit Lions (-2) @ Arizona Cardinals, Projected Total: 46

Detroit Lions, Projected Total: 24

The Cardinals defence looked atrocious in the pre-season – putting the Lions in a very intriguing spot for Week 1.  I don’t like the slow pace that they play with, but the match-up is a very intriguing one – and playing on the road with a modest total, I think they have the potential to fly under the radar in terms of ownership levels.

QB Matthew Stafford had a dismal 2018, but I am willing to give him a mulligan since I heard he played with a fractured veterbrae.  He should be less than 5% owned this week, and has plenty of contrarian appeal.

WR Kenny Golladay and WR Marvin Jones are both in spots to eat with CB Patrick Patterson suspended.  The Cards will struggle to cover both WR’s, and dollar for dollar, I love the spot that Jones is in – putting him on The Cruncher List.

RB Kerryon Johnson should see heavy usage for the Lions, with RB C.J. Anderson getting some work spelling him.  I expect the Lions to be more conservative than most expect them to be with Johnson’s usage, which is the only thing that is keeping him off of the Cruncher List in Week 1.

The Lions DST is an intriguing low-moderate owned option, going up against a new system and a rookie QB.

The Cruncher List

  • WR Marvin Jones

Good Plays

  • QB Matthew Stafford
  • WR Kenny Golladay
  • RB Kerryon Johnson
  • Lions DST

Arizona Cardinals, Projected Total: 22

I may get burned on this right out of the gate, and if I do – I have no problem fully buying in – but after an unimpressive pre-season, I’ll need to see it from Arizona before fully buying in.  I do think this offence will do big things in 2019 – but given the hype surrounding them, and the cult-like following (and likely moderate ownership levels from the masses) by bullish Cards fantasy followers, I’ll be opting for a game theory fade on them in this one.  It helps ease the pain with this decision when I factor in the fact that I do think the Lions have a pretty stout defence overall.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • None

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-7), Projected Total: 45.5

New York Giants, Projected Total: 19.25

This is a tough spot for the Giants.  Low total, facing a tough defence – there is plenty of volume-based intrigue for RB Saquon Barkley, WR Sterling Shepard, and TE Evan Engram – but none of them make the cut in my books to be on the Cruncher List.  I won’t fault anyone who rosters any of the three of them, as they should all see significant workloads in this game – but I think they are in tough against one of the best defenses in football.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • RB Saquon Barkley
  • WR Sterling Shepard
  • TE Evan Engram

Dallas Cowboys, Projected Total: 26.25

The Cowboys go up against one of the league’s worst defences in this one – and I love the spot that QB Dak Prescott is in.  He’s afforable, should be able to move the ball at will against a poor secondary with no pass rush – and I think he provides DFS players with one of the best ROI’s at his price point on both sites.  He’s an elite option this week.

WR Amari Cooper looks good to go, though we’ll see how he does playing through plantar faschitis.  Look for him to have a productive Week 1 – but he doesn’t quite make the list at his price point.  WR Michael Gallup is a great option for a value play at WR.  I expect him to see an uptick in targets in his second year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him crush value this week in a plus match-up.

RB Ezekiel Elliot should see significant snaps this week, but at his price point – I am not sure if he will see enough snaps to be able to crush value in this one.  RB Tony Pollard is an intriguing punt with upside at the position, maybe you are more bold than me – but I won’t be rostering him this week.

Dallas’ DST is a strong play this week, though I do prefer a few options on the board by a slight margin.

The Cruncher List

  • QB Dak Prescott
  • WR Michael Gallup

Good Plays

  • WR Amari Cooper
  • Dallas DST

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1), Projected Total: 50.5

San Francisco, Projected Total: 24.75

This game has the makings of a shoot-out, and there are no shortage of options to consider, including a full blown game stack.

QB Jimmy Garropolo struggled for most of the pre-season, though he looked sharp towards the ends of it, and in this match-up – it’s hard not to like the spot he is in, especially due to the fact that the masses will likely be sour on him.  I think he’s an elite option at QB this week against a defence that ranked 31st in the league in terms of DVOA against the pass.

The buzz around WR Dante Pettis was absurd.  He’s their top WR option.  His groin injury – I grant you, that is a bit of a concern, but all systems appear to be good to go for Pettis this week, and at his price – I don’t quite have him as an elite play, but he’s a great option this week if you are stacking this game.  In the same breath, WR Marquise Goodwin has plenty of appeal as a punt with upside at WR.

TE George Kittle is an elite option at TE if you can afford him.  Tampa doesn’t have anyone that can cover him, so unless they bracket him all game, I thin he eats.

The RB scenario should be a timeshare between RB Tevin Coleman and RB Matt Breida.  Look for them both to see 10-14 touches in this one – which will likely put a cap on both of them in terms of being parts of DFS winning line-ups.

The Cruncher List

  • QB Jimmy Garropolo
  • TE George Kittle

Good Plays

  • WR Dante Pettis
  • WR Marquise Goodwin

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Projected Total: 25.75

The Bucs are a pass heavy offence with a time-share in the backfield that is an easy fade.  The passing game, however has four strong options: QB Jameis Winston, WR Mike Evans (keep an eye on his illness), WR Chris Godwin and TE O.J. Howard.

Look for the Bucs to be slinging the ball on Sunday against a 49ers secondary that ranked 27th in the NFL in terms of DVOA against the pass a year ago.  I prefer other options on the board to Howard in this one, but he is a great part of a stack.  Evans, Godwin – and Winston are all elite options in a great match-up this week.

The Cruncher List

  • QB Jameis Winston
  • WR Mike Evans
  • WR Chris Godwin

Good Plays

  • TE O.J. Howard

Best of luck in your Week 1 DFS action!  If you have any questions at all, please feel free to find me @bradsgotmoxy!

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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