TOP PLAYS FOR UFC IN ARGENTINA
We’re only a week away from Cormier vs Miocic 2 and it may be hard to focus on this week but I’ve identified some good plays for this week in Argentina. Here are three key fights to look at for DFS contests on Saturday.
On the surface this fight might be a bit puzzling to some. Rodolfo Vieira has a professional record of 5-0 and has yet to fight against UFC competition. Oskar Piechota is 11-1-1 and is 2-1 against UFC competition. Why then is the lesser experienced fighter such a heavy favorite against a veteran fighter with a winning record in the octagon? The answer is that Vieira is a submission expert with four first round finishes in five fights, and in those five fights he has four submissions to his credit. Piechota’s lone loss was against submission expert, Gerald Meerschaert, a submission expert who choked him out in the second round of Piechota’s last fight. Look for an early finish in this fight which the oddsmakers make a favorite to last less than 1.5 rounds. To Piechota’s credit, in his 11 victories he has 10 by early finish and has only gone to decision once since 2013.
Caveman’s advice: This fight should be played heavily and figures to end inside of two rounds. Piechota has demonstrated his ability to finish fights but he has also demonstrated a weakness to submission experts like Vieira. I would give this fight 70-80% exposure in multi-entry contests with a 80/20 split favoring Vieira.
(At the time of this writing, Rodolfo Vieira is -220 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 67.52 on Fantasy Cruncher. Oskar Piechota is +180 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 42.98 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
In his UFC debut, Geraldo de Freitas scored 127.5 fantasy points while accumulating 49 significant strikes, 11 advances, 6 takedowns and 2 reversals in a unanimous decision victory. On Saturday he faces Chris Gutierrez who has a respectable record of 13-4-1 although he stands at 1-1 against UFC competition. The glaring statistic that should be a factor in this one is Gutierrez’s takedown defense. At a mere 60%, he has a defensive hole in his game that de Freitas is sure to exploit. Look for de Freitas to shoot for takedowns relentlessly in this fight. If he manages to take Gutierrez down as frequently as expected, the chance of submission will be high as de Freitas has 5 of his 12 victories coming by submission.
Caveman’s advice: Expect de Freitas to expose Gutierrez’s takedown defense. Despite the fact he isn’t a large favorite, he carries the most scoring potential in DFS contests. I like his chances for an early submission and anticipate he will accumulate takedowns and advances if the fight persists until decision. Play this fight in 60-70% of multi-entry contests with a 90/10 split in favor of de Freitas.
(At the time of this writing, Geraldo de Freitas is -142 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 60.96 on Fantasy Cruncher. Chris Gutierrez is +119 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 51.81 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
This fight would be one of the biggest upsets ever if Liz Carmouche finds her way to victory. Shevchenko is a relentless striker and should make short work of her opponent in this one. She is favored to win inside the distance and will score big numbers in the vast majority of possible outcomes for this match. She is a favorite to win inside the distance and has the second highest FPPF of any fighter on Saturday. Even if she doesn’t manage to finish Carmouche before the final bell, she will have five full rounds of scoring to impress fantasy players. Her giant salary is the only limiting factor for her in DFS contests.
Caveman’s advice: The question isn’t which fighter is the better play here. Carmouche won’t get play from me. The question is how limiting is Shevchenko’s salary. She’s a sure thing for cash contests but in multi-entry contests keep her exposure around 60% as at $9,600 her salary will force you to play some weaker fighters at the bottom of your lineup.
(At the time of this writing, Valentina Shevchenko is -1099 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 106.28 on Fantasy Cruncher. Liz Carmouche is +688 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 39.79 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!