Analyzing the starting pitching landscape for June 16 MLB DFS contests.
Brad Peacock vs TOR – I feel very good about recommending Peacock this afternoon, and there’s a solid chance he ends up being the highest owned SP on the slate. Partly due to price point on both sites, but also as a result of recent form, Vegas indicators (3.3 opp total; 69% win%) and opponent weakness. He’s also sporting some of the better metrics on a fairly middle-tier-oriented SP slate (3.83 SIERA; 9.5 K/9 in his last 5 starts) even though the 8%/25% whiff/chase rates are pretty average at best. He’s a solid option on the whole this afternoon, but for those wanting more contrarian exposure, you will want to look elsewhere.
Martin Perez vs KC – I’m loving his DK price point here for a 67% win% and 3.9 opponent total arm against a fairly weak team. He hasn’t been lights out in this last month of action by any means, but the GB% continues to be elite (56%) and the whiff/chase rates are very solid (11%/32% in that time). If he can just get back to his earlier-season ways in the BB% department, he could do some damage today against KC – a team he hasn’t faced since 2017 when he was a very different pitcher.
Griffin Canning @ TB – Although not an attractive split to get the Rays, I do like his price-value equation here given the fantastic 15%/35% whiff/chase metrics he brings to the table (last 5 starts) with a 3.95 SIERA. Ryne Stanek is the opener for TB today and the lack of pure clarity on the next guy up from a pitching perspective is keeping Vegas totals/lines up in the air right now. But for a guy that could get 5-6 IP with 5-7 Ks – I don’t mind the value.
Sonny Gray vs TEX – One of the better overall values once again here is Gray, whose 4.10 SIERA over the last month and tremendous 60% GB% in that time are hard to ignore for the price. He does have to throw against a TEX team that hits RHP fairly well, but the 3.8 opp total and 63% win% make him a serviceable risk-reward target to consider regardless of the tough split. The way he’s been getting whiffs and opponents to pound the ball into the ground are very worthy of GPP exposure.
Daily Dice Rolls
James Paxton @ CWS – He probably won’t make many appearances in the daily dice roll section, but while he’s struggling to get length on his outings, I’m going to be a little weary about trusting him as a top play. Frankly, I think he’s a great target for GPPs given the immense strikeout ceiling he possesses thanks to tremendous raw stuff alone, but a 6 ER outing on just 2.2 IP against the lowly Mets in his last start and then 4.2 IP of 3 run ball vs the lousy Jays just add to the hesitation. It’s worth noting that his 14%/39% whiff/chase metrics in his last 3 starts are still very healthy – as are the 3.9 opp total and 66% win probabilities – but you have to be nervous about trusting him too much since the 6+ IP and 8+ Ks just haven’t been there very often in 2019. That is somewhat built into his price today (sub-$10K on both sites), but the risk remains plenty high.