DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 153 – June 1, 2019


We examine two higher salary fighters and recommend two low salary plays to offset the cost as the UFC goes to Sweden on Saturday.

ALEXANDER GUSTAFSSON (DK $9,300)Anthony Smith is a very good fighter but he isn’t quite on the level of Gustafsson. As the fighters take the octagon in Sweden, Gustafsson will have the clear advantage as both the superior fighter and the home crowd favorite. He is a significant favorite and is only a slight dog to finish within the distance. I think he does manage to score heavily if the fight does go the distance and the five rounds scheduled will enable him to score well.

Caveman’s advice: Play Gustafsson heavily on Saturday. His salary is somewhat limiting but there are good low salary fighters on this card to pair with him. He is an excellent cash play and should be used in MME contest quite a bit. Give him 70-80% exposure in these contests.

ALEKSANDAR RAKIC (DK $8,900) – Rakic carries the shortest odds to finish inside the distance of all fighters on Saturday. He has shown the ability to finish fights early and to score in DFS contests. At 95.8 FPPF, he carries the highest average of any fighter on the card. The fact that he is priced under $9K just makes it all the sweeter. Jimi Manuwa is coming off of three consecutive losses and may be beyond his prime at this point. Look for an early stoppage in this one.

Caveman’s advice: At this salary, Rakic should be in most if not all of your lineups. He is a solid cash play and should get heavy play in MME contests. I recommend using him in 80-90% of lineups.

BEA MALECKI (DK $7,600) – Malecki’s fight against Duda Santana is intriguing. She is $1,000 less in salary, yet she is the betting favorite in this one. Neither fighter has much experience with only five professional fights between the two of them. This is certainly hard to predict, but anytime you can get a favorite at such a low salary, you have to give it consideration.

Caveman’s advice: I can’t recommend playing her too heavily. Even in victory, she may not score well, but the opportunity to take a favorite at this salary can’t be ignored. Those looking to play the more expensive fighters in DFS contests will need a bargain play to offset the costs. Look no further than Bea Malecki. Her salary makes her a good cash play and she should be used moderately in MME contests. I would give her 30-40% exposure in those contests.

DANILO BELLUARDO (DK $7,700) – Again we find a fighter with a salary under $8K who is also the betting favorite. Joel Alvarez is coming off a loss in his UFC debut. Belluardo is coming off of six consecutive victories with four first round finishes in those fights. It will, however, be his first UFC fight. He will need to be wary of Alvarez’s submission skills, but if he can do so, he figures to find success on Saturday.

Caveman’s advice: Again, finding lower salary plays is key to DFS and when a salary this low comes along with the favored fighter it demands to be in your lineups. Belluardo can finish fights as well and this makes him an amazing value. He should be a good cash play and deserves MME play too. Give him 40-50% exposure in those contests.

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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