The Hitting Rundown: Featuring stacks to target for the FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS slate on May 17, 2019 (5/17).
Every team in the majors plays on the main slate tonight and even better there are no weather concerns with this slate.
Athletics vs. Daniel Norris (Projected total: 5.1)
Daniel Norris has actually not been bad this season as he has only allowed more than three runs once this season and has only allowed five home runs. While those numbers are not normally numbers we like to stack against Norris advanced numbers show that he is going to crash hard at some point. Norris has an xFIP of 4.84 this season which is a run higher than his ERA and even with only allowing five home runs he still has an HR/9 rate of 1.30 this season. Norris also doesn’t strike a lot of batters out with a K rate of just 17% and allows a lot of hard contact with a hard hit rate of 36.4%. Norris is not only due for negative regression but he is also left-handed and the A’s are one of my favorite teams to stack against lefties as this season they have the fourth highest team wOBA and second highest team ISO against lefties.
Yesterday’s Results: Royals 1 run, 9 hits, 2 walks, 0 home runs
Indians vs. Dylan Bundy (Projected total: 5.2)
The Indians have a couple of expensive pieces at the top of their lineup on FanDuel but are dirt cheap on DraftKings with only two of their hitters costing over $4,000 in salary and not a single one costing over $4,500 in salary. Their salaries combined with an elite match-up against Dylan Bundy make them a hard stack to ignore on DraftKings and even on FanDuel where they are a bit more expensive they check in as one of the top overall stacks let alone value stacks on this slate. Bundy is just truly that bad. Since the start of last season, Bundy has an HR/9 rate of 2.20 which is second highest in the majors, a FIP of 5.36 which is second highest in the majors and a WHIP of 1.39 which is fourth highest in the majors among qualified pitchers. Bundy is allowing hitters to slug .524 with a .362 wOBA during this period.
Yesterday’s Results: Twins 11 runs, 16 hits, 1 walk, 4 home runs
Nationals vs. Cole Hamels (Projected total: 4.2)
Cole Hamels is not typically a pitcher that I like to pick on as he has been excellent since joining the Cubs. In his 20 starts with the Cubs, Hamels has an xFIP of 3.59, a WHIP of 1.09 and an HR/9 rate of 0.86. While I normally wouldn’t target hitters against Hamels I really like the Nats tonight as a stack that is likely to be under five percent owned as they are excellent against left-handed pitching. Since the start of last season, the Nationals rank in the top 11 in team ISO, team wOBA and team OPS against left-handed pitching and this season they rank in the top six in each category. The Nationals are also expected to get Trea Turner back tonight which would be a big boost to their lineup. While there is risk in this pick if the Nats go off like they have the ability to do you will find yourself near the top of the leaderboards in GPPs as you are not winning GPPs nowadays by playing nothing but chalk.
Yesterday’s Results: N/A
Good luck today! If you have any questions, you can follow and send me questions on Twitter @zachsgotmoxy.