THREE KEY FIGHTS FOR UFC IN CANADA
UFC goes “north of the wall” and sets up shop in Ottawa on Saturday. We take a deeper look at three fights and suggest some fighters than be key in lineup construction this week.
I hate stating the obvious in these articles, but occasionally I find that I must make sure the obvious is realized for just how obvious it is. Such is the case for the Chiasson/Moras fight on Saturday. In every statistical category, Chiasson is dominant. She is far and away the biggest favorite of the night and I think it’s going to be very hard to win a DFS contest without her in your lineup. Let’s be thorough, however, and look at just how one-sided this fight could be. Sarah Moras has one identifiable advantage on Saturday. The fight is in Canada. As a Canadian, the crowd will be behind her as long as she lasts. Macy Chiasson on the other hand has the height advantage (by 4 inches), the reach advantage (by 5.5 inches), the significant strike advantage (5.44/min vs 1.85/min), takedown defense (100% vs 38%), submission average (3.33 per 15 minutes vs 0.95 per 14 minutes) and UFC record (5-0-0 vs 5-5-0). She is a bigger, longer fighter who has superior skills on her feet and on the mat. Unless they actually let the Canadian crowd into the octagon with her, Sarah Moras looks to be in trouble.
Caveman’s advice: Don’t let the salary keep you from playing Macy. She’s a stronger play than the other fighters over $9K in salary. She looks to dominate and will likely be key to winning DFS contests. She’s a fantastic cash game play here. In MME contests, use her as much as you’d like. I suggest somewhere in the 80-100% range. Sarah “Cheesecake” Moras can be removed from your player pool entirely.
(At the time of this writing, Macy Chiasson is -709 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 80.47 on Fantasy Cruncher. Sarah Moras is +486 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 32.80 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
When you have a heavyweight favorite who comes in under $8,500 in salary, he is usually a good play. Juan Adams has only seen a fight go past the first round once as a professional. That was in his last fight where he TKO’d his opponent in the third after landing 86 significant strikes. Add to that 4 advances and 2 takedowns, and you come up with a total of 110.0 fantasy points in his UFC debut. His four previous fights all ended in first round victories by TKO. Arjan Bhullar is 8-1 as a professional with 3 wins coming by KO/TKO. He is 2-1 against UFC competition. He is the smaller fighter, however, and will be at a disadvantage in size. Adams has the longer reach (by 5.5 inches) and weighed in 21 pounds heavier on Friday.
Caveman’s advice: Adams has good first round finish potential at a mere $8,300 in salary. If you’re going with a high salary fighter like Macy Chiasson, Juan Adams pairs nicely for his moderate salary. In cash games, I think he’s a solid play and in MME contests I like this fight for it’s value and would use the fight in about 60-70% of lineups with a 75/25 split in favor of Adams.
(At the time of this writing, Juan Adams is -136 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 59.99 on Fantasy Cruncher. Arjan Bhullar is +112 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 51.09 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Cub Swanson is the kind of fighter that fans believe in even if they shouldn’t. I believe this is going to be the case on Saturday. Look for the field to play Cub quite a bit in lineups. In reality, he is facing a younger, hungrier fighter whose submission game can cause fits for Swanson and can win on his feet as well.. Shane Burgos has a professional record of 11-1 and of those 11 victories 5 are by submission. In Swanson’s last 5 losses, 4 of those were by submission. On their feet, Burgos has the reach advantage (by 5.5 inches) and is the taller fighter by 3 inches. He also lands more significant strikes (6.54/min vs 4.16/min) than Swanson. In his last five fights, Burgos has only landed fewer than 70 significant fights once. In that fight he finished with a first round submission.
Caveman’s advice: Cub Swanson looks outmatched here. If the field is going to play him for his lower salary and for sentimentality, consider taking a contrarian approach and playing his opponent heavier than you might have otherwise. Although it was against quality competition, Cub is on a three fight losing streak and gets no confidence from me. I will play Burgos a fair amount in MME contests and consider him a solid cash game play as well. I would use this fight moderately in MME play. Give it about 30-40% of your lineups with a heavy dose of Burgos. I would split the lineups 80/20 in his favor.
(At the time of this writing, Shane Burgos is -159 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 63.12 on Fantasy Cruncher. Cub Swanson is +132 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 50.59 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. May the Fourth be with you!