The Primer NBA DFS Fantasy Cruncher

The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – February 12, 2019

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on February 12, 2019.

Note: All stats in this article unless noted come from NBA.com, ESPN.com, FantasyPros.com, and NBA Wowy.

Slate Breakdown

Number of Games

  • 5

Teams on B2B

  • None

Note: Make sure to check out the game filter menu in the upper left-hand corner of the Cruncher page for updated totals and spreads. 

Notable Point Totals (Any total under 215 or over 225)

  • LAL @ ATL (237)
  • SAS @ MEM (210)
  • UTA @ GSW (226.5)

Notable Point Spreads (Any spread in double digits)

  • None; but GSW at -9 is worth monitoring

Note: We are going to use FanDuel’s position eligibility in regards to players due to the multiple position eligibility on DraftKings.

Point Guard

  1. Patty Mills (cash)
  2. Terry Rozier
  3. Ben Simmons
  4. Stephen Curry
  5. Mike Conley
  6. Trae Young

No Kyrie Irving on the slate tonight opens things up at the top end of the salary spectrum, and directly gives Terry Rozier value despite being slightly inflated in salary vs where we’ve been able to roster him in the past.

Simmons, Curry and Conley make our top 5 today and are sitting at 3-4-5 respectively. You have to love the totals for GSW and PHI tonight, but not as much for MEM albeit having Conley in what is easily the best DvP spot. My money is on Simmons busting out of his mini slump and putting together an excellent line with heavy minutes. He will be a load for the undersized BOS front court to handle.

We’ve touched on Mills in a couple spots across FC today, and he’s easily a great cash game option thanks to the elevated role and under-priced nature of his salary for a 5 or 6 ROI.

Young is a bit more contrarian for the Hawks tonight, but is playing in an elite game for exposure. His usage continues to be excellent, and the departure of Jeremy Lin could open up a few extra minutes. The 116 total for ATL is a great indicator of pace and possession opportunities for their young PG.

Shooting Guard

  1. Donovan Mitchell (FD)
  2. Delon Wright (DK)
  3. Klay Thompson
  4. Jrue Holiday (DK)
  5. Justin Holiday (cash)

There are 2 different ends of the spectrum to consider tonight. Mitchell is elite on FanDuel for his respective price, while Jrue Holiday is in a great spot for NOP despite being a chunk more expensive on FD (therefore being the better pivot on DK).

Delon Wright is a fine punt on DK given the expected 23-25 minute role, and Klay is a solid mid-range play who is shooting very well lately and continues to play consistent minutes. He’s safe for 33-37 fantasy points here – a mark he had no problem hitting when these 2 teams last met (excellent relative value on DK for only $6,100).

Worth a quick mention today is Justin Holiday, who is set for another high minutes role with Kyle Anderson expected to sit. He’s played 31+ minutes in 5 straight, and although the majority of his value is tied to scoring – the shooting volume at 10+ FGA per outing in his last 6 gives him a good shot at breaking the 5.0 ROI barrier (all sites).

Small Forward

  1. Jae Crowder
  2. LeBron James
  3. Jonathan Isaac (DK)
  4. Kenrich Williams (DK)
  5. Brandon Ingram
  6. Rudy Gay

On the whole, there is a lot to like at the position for DK purposes tonight – and although the relative value there exceeds that of FanDuel, many of them are still very playable.

This could be a good night to pay up for LeBron on FD in particular. His usage and minutes are expected to lead the slate at the position, and a slate-best 121 team total is hard to ignore in a plus match-up. ATL just doesn’t have enough defensively to keep him in check with how versatile his role nets out on offense.

We have Crowder as a top-tier value play today at the price. He’s done very well vs GSW in the last 2 games facing them this year (37+ FP in each) and should see 30 minutes or so off the pine.

Isaac is really turning a corner for ORL, and his confidence has to be sky high with the way he’s playing right now. He’s an absolute bargain on DK for just a hair over $5K, but is also relevant on FD despite a price hike. Williams is another DK option to consider given the heavy minutes and great production.

Ingram is a nice Vegas play for cash games (121 total), and while I am a little uneasy about Gay’s health, his usage and price on FD makes him a really interesting revenge game (narrative) play for 30+ FP.

Power Forward

  1. Marcus Morris
  2. Julius Randle
  3. Draymond Green
  4. Tobias Harris
  5. Ivan Rabb/Jaren Jackson Jr

I have a hard time recommending Anthony Davis here while the price is just as high as it is for someone who has failed to eclipse the 4.1 ROI mark in his last 3.

Instead, I would consider Randle as a pivot who is still getting elite usage responsibility and at a price that won’t break the bank (across the industry).

Marcus Morris is shaping up to be one of the better value options at the position that is middle and top heavy for the most part. He’s been a big part of Boston’s success against Philly this year, with 33 and 35.7 FP in the first 2 match-ups of the year (57 combined minutes). That production is worth heavy exposure on FD in particular given the mere $100 price delta vs DK ($5,100 on FD).

The FC model loves Draymond Green today (both sites) – and the price is certainly attractive given he’s been a strong performer against UTA the last couple times they faced off. I prefer him for cash games.

Harris seems to have settled in with PHI pretty quickly, and is doing a little of everything in his new role. At a slight discount vs his recent production, he’s viable tonight.

Worthy of a quick mention is the MEM PF/C tandem in Rabb and Jackson. I love Jackson’s elevated role from a usage (scoring) perspective, but both average better than 1.0 FPPM this year and have solidified roles with Marc Gasol’s departure. I prefer Jackson on FD and Rabb on DK based on pricing.

Center

  1. JaVale McGee (DK)
  2. DeMarcus Cousins
  3. Rudy Gobert
  4. Kevon Looney
  5. Jonas Valanciunas

Have to love McGee’s price on DK. For less than $5K, he’s back with the starting unit and playing a bigger role now that Ivica Zubac is out of the Lakers rotation (well, off the roster actually) – not to mention some injuries to the depth they have there, too.

Cousins is an elite option if you pay up into the middle tier on both sites. Especially for cash games. His consistency coming back from injury has been fantastic – but he does tend to struggle at times against Rudy Gobert (who is a really nice play in his own right thanks to expected role and minutes tonight).

If spending down past McGee on DK, Looney and Valanciunas have some appeal. Looney is a nice relative value on FD for under $4K and expected to play 20 or so minutes. JV should make his MEM debut tonight, and thanks to great FPPM numbers could be relevant at the price (we currently have him projected for 24 minutes, which may be a little high given he hasn’t played in a couple months). However, the price is right across the industry for GPPs (fade in cash).

Injuries

Players to monitor

Players already ruled out

About Jared Kwart

Jared is an expert fantasy sports player for both DFS and season-long formats. Specializing in DFS Baseball, Football & Basketball, with tens of thousands of dollars in career DFS earnings. Active player on FanDuel, DraftKings & FantasyDraft. Annual NFBC high stakes league participant.

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