The Primer NBA DFS Fantasy Cruncher

The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – February 11, 2019

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on February 11, 2019.

Note: All stats in this article unless noted come from NBA.com, ESPN.com, FantasyPros.com, and NBA Wowy.

Slate Breakdown

Number of Games

  • 9

Teams on B2B

  • MIA, DAL, POR

Note: Make sure to check out the game filter menu in the upper left-hand corner of the Cruncher page for updated totals and spreads. 

Notable Point Totals (Any total under 215 or over 225)

  • NYK @ CLE (210)
  • BKN @ TOR (226)
  • MIL @ CHI (225.5)
  • LAC @ MIN (227.5)
  • POR @ OKC (231.5)
  • MIA @ DEN (212)

Notable Point Spreads (Any spread in double digits)

  • TOR -10 vs BKN
  • MIL -10 @ CHI
  • HOU -10 vs DAL
  • DEN -10 vs MIA

Note: We are going to use FanDuel’s position eligibility in regards to players due to the multiple position eligibility on DraftKings.

Point Guard

  1. Damian Lillard
  2. Kyle Lowry
  3. Dennis Smith Jr
  4. Collin Sexton
  5. Chris Paul

Not only did Lillard have a 30%+ usage rate in B2B games against the Thunder this year, but he happened to drop over 60 FP against them when they last met. He’s been a high floor, high ceiling guy of late for the Blazers (and relative to his salary on FD is an absolute steal on DK for just over $8K). He gets top spot on our rankings for DK purposes as a result.

Lowry is set to play heavy minutes for the Raps who are going to be short-handed thanks to VanVleet being marked as doubtful. Look for him to be productive in a great situation.

A couple other mid-range salary plays in Smith Jr and Sexton are primed for strong outings tonight, too. Sexton has seen heavy minutes and a growing usage rate responsibility over his last handful of games, while Smith is clearly a go-to option for the Knicks on offense as they look towards their future (and are short-handed at the position). He’s eclipsed the 5.0 value mark in 3 straight.

I’d prefer to opt out of the MIN PG situation given there is so much uncertainty there. Instead, if you want to still get a strong candidate for a solid game at a mid-range price, Chris Paul is looking good to me. The Rockets have one of the highest team totals on the board tonight, and he’s strung together 3 straight solid games of 39+ FP with a mid-20s usage rate and 33 MPG average in that time.

Shooting Guard

  1. D’Angelo Russell
  2. Jordan Clarkson
  3. Luka Doncic
  4. Eric Gordon (cash)
  5. Lou Williams (GPP)

Lots to consider at SG today. If paying up, Doncic is hard to beat – especially at a decent discount on DK relative to FD. I am struggling to make the argument for James Harden, so he’s a great pivot down. The only concern with Doncic is the fact he played 37 minutes yesterday – and with a 30% usage rate. If he isn’t going to suit up for any reason, he’s a sit.

Russell and Williams are a couple really strong mid-range pivots in their respective match-ups. Russell has 39.5 and 45.7 FP against TOR in his last 2 games facing them. A reasonable salary on both sites makes him very attractive.

Sweet Lou had his fifth straight game of at least 30% usage off the bench for the Clippers. The price is elevated a tad, but the underlying metrics leave a lot of upside for GPPs given his typical minutes allotment and raw ceiling if he gets going. Great match-up as well, so 30+ FP feels like the floor for me today.

Clarkson and Gordon are two of the other strong options for their respective price points. Clarkson has B2B games of at least 30 minutes and is averaging better than 30% usage in that time, too. That has helped deliver over 33 FPPG in that 2 game span, and he has a dream situation against the Knicks. If you knock Russell down your list because of the price discrepancy, Clarkson has to be near the top.

Gordon is a sub-$5K name who is likely to play big minutes and have a 20-25% usage rate role against the Mavs. Not someone I love for GPPs given a healthy Chris Paul tends to limit the upside, but 25 FP is realistic and would play well for the salary in cash games.

Small Forward

  1. Paul George
  2. Danilo Gallinari
  3. Jabari Parker (FD elite value; arguably #1 play on that site)
  4. Otto Porter
  5. Joe Harris (DK)

PG13 is an elite up-spend option tonight at SF. He has 50+ FP in all but one of his last 9 games – playing ridiculous minutes and doing so with a consistent low to mid-30s usage rate on a regular basis. He has 49.6 and 66.6 fantasy points against the Blazers this year, just for good measure.

Gallinari should see a nice minutes output, and the salary for both FD and DK ($7K and $6K respectively) puts him on the cash game radar.

Parker is an elite FD play but someone you can knock down your list on DK given a much higher salary. That said, if he can string together another 40+ FP game – the salary on both sites is mighty fine.

Porter had 40 FP against MIL when they last met, and has played 34 minutes in B2B games with his new team. MIL struggles from a DvP perspective in the split – but as a lower usage type of player, he needs to do things well on the boards and steals fronts to be a fantasy-friendly name. That said, the price on each site is rock solid (especially for cash games).

Joe Harris is the last name I will mention to round out the top 5, as his sub-$5K price (DK) makes him a 5+ ROI target who is in a good spot against Toronto. He plays around 30 minutes and assuming Carroll is at less than 100% (or even ruled out ahead of time), that should lock the minutes in and give him a good shot at a nice catch and shoot role for BKN.

Power Forward

  1. Lauri Markkanen
  2. Larry Nance (DK)
  3. Bobby Portis (FD)
  4. Kenneth Faried
  5. Al-Farouq Aminu
  6. Punt: Marquese Chriss

The Markkanen Train just keeps on rolling. He continued his recent stretch of excellent play over the weekend and remains a relative value on FanDuel for only +$400 vs his salary on DraftKings. High minutes and a rock solid usage with well-rounded contributions in the scoring and rebounding departments in particular make him a very safe option across the board.

Nance should continue to be a great source of value on DK for under $6K. I’m all about him there in any and all contest formats (one of the best plays on the slate). Portis is FD relevant for GPPs in particular – and he has 33+ FP in 4 straight despite coming off the bench (with a major usage role).

Faried and Aminu are high floor guys at digestible price points on both sites. Aminu tends to really step things up against the Thunder, with 25.4, 37 and 25.6 FP in his last 3 games (at price points higher than where he is tonight).

I also don’t mind Chriss as a punt – CLE appears to be set on giving him 20+ minutes with solid usage as they see what they have in him for the future.

Center

  1. Ivica Zubac (elite value across the industry)
  2. Jusuf Nurkic
  3. Andre Drummond (DK relative value)
  4. Mitchell Robinson
  5. Cody Zeller
  6. Mason Plumlee (if Millsap sits; he would skyrocket to #2 or #3 status on the list)

This one is a little interesting I see 2 routes you can go:

Route #1 is through Zubac, who is perhaps going to be the highest owned C on the slate (both sites). He played great in his debut, and left the coaching staff gushing about how good he looked. The salary has not adjusted just yet – and it won’t surprise to see the minutes grow. If you want to stay with a value big but fade the chalk, Robinson and even Zeller are viable pivots.

Route #2 is via spending up for either Drummond or Nurkic. Drummond’s a fantastic value on DK, while Nurkic is someone I have high on my list for both sites. Drummond has 3+ blocks in 4 straight and a tremendous match-up against the Wizards – while Nurkic tends to do very well against OKC with 43+ FP in each of his last 3 games in this match-up (and cheaper than he’s been against them in each of his last 2).

The one caveat I’ll share is that Plumlee could be elevated significantly if Millsap is ruled out ahead of time. He has been great in the absence of Millsap and becomes a great compromise between value and raw point potential if he’s thrust into a starting role again. Additionally, he will be playable alongside Zubac on DK given the roster construction options.

Injuries

Players to monitor

Players already ruled out

About Jared Kwart

Jared is an expert fantasy sports player for both DFS and season-long formats. Specializing in DFS Baseball, Football & Basketball, with tens of thousands of dollars in career DFS earnings. Active player on FanDuel, DraftKings & FantasyDraft. Annual NFBC high stakes league participant.

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