The Primer NBA DFS Fantasy Cruncher

The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – February 8, 2019

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on February 8, 2019.

Note: All stats in this article unless noted come from NBA.com, ESPN.com, FantasyPros.com, and NBA Wowy.

Slate Breakdown

Number of Games

  • 8

Teams on B2B

  • MIN

Note: Make sure to check out the game filter menu in the upper left-hand corner of the Cruncher page for updated totals and spreads. 

Notable Point Totals (Any total under 215 or over 225)

  • NYK @ DET (206.5)
  • DEN @ PHI (228.5)
  • GSW @ PHX (230)
  • MIN @ NOP (233.5)

Notable Point Spreads (Any spread in double digits)

  • WAS -10 vs CLE
  • GSW -14 @ PHX

Note: We are going to use FanDuel’s position eligibility in regards to players due to the multiple position eligibility on DraftKings.

With a really exciting and active trade deadline yesterday, the Friday slate is ripe for last minute roster announcements as far as active/inactive players go. Some late news could really shake things up – but we’ll do our best here to project how we see things unfolding.

Point Guard

  1. Eric Bledsoe
  2. Collin Sexton
  3. Tomas Satoransky
  4. Kris Dunn
  5. Ben Simmons

Bledsoe has put together 4 straight games of elite production, and the situation is ripe on Friday night. If the Mavs have Luka Doncic lined up on him, he should be able to use his quickness to do his damage around the rim – where he is most effective. The price has not yet corrected itself (for example, he should be mid-$8K on FanDuel by now) – so take advantage.

Sexton shapes up as his stock points in the same direction, with growing minutes and usage for the rebuilding Cavs. The value is hard to ignore tonight, especially for PG2 consideration on FanDuel.

Dunn and Satoransky are risk-reward plays who make for strong pivots off Bledsoe if you want to fade the “chalkier” guy here. Dunn’s value gets a boost if LaVine happens to sit, too. He put together a great performance against the Pelicans last time out in 38 minutes with 41.8 FDP and despite struggling vs BKN last time out, the total here and his price are GPP relevant. Satoransky has been more productive and consistent of late, but his value is more tied to assists than in a scoring capacity. Slight pricing advantage on him vs Dunn gives him a bit of a boost in my mind – and he has 30+ FPPG in 3 straight.

Simmons is the PG with high ROI potential in a game that should not only be tightly contested despite a tough DvP situation on paper – but he is a complete mismatch for the Denver front court. Don’t be surprised to see his heavy minutes role and usage total have him flirt with a 50+ burger.

One other callout is the MIN PG situation. All are questionable – but if one of Bayless, Rose or Teague happen to be the only active names at the position – they could see 35+ minutes and be a great value option at their pricepoints.

Shooting Guard

  1. Luka Doncic
  2. Bradley Beal
  3. Malik Beasley
  4. Dwyane Wade (major boost for DK)
  5. Malcolm Brogdon

Plenty of ways to go here, and I love both Doncic and Beal on this slate if you want to spend up. They are in good spots as far as their minute and usage roles go, but Doncic’s price leaves a little to be desired on both FD and DK (making him a bit more cash game relevant). Beal gets the value edge between the two.

Beasley is a great SG2 option on FanDuel, checking in -$600 vs DraftKings for a guy playing big minutes and consistently contributing for the Nuggets. In fact, he’s eclipsed his salary expectations by a 6.3 value score in 4 of his last 6 and at least 4.5 in all 6. The role continues to grow, and this game will require him to spend 30+ minutes on the floor once again.

Brogdon has the lower ceiling than Wade, but has a high consistency rating and is in a good spot to succeed here. Wade’s DK price makes him perhaps a top 3 option at the position on the slate – $1,300 vs his FD salary. He’s going to have an elevated minutes and usage role with Tyler Johnson out of the picture and Derrick Jones still sidelined. He could flirt with 30 minutes and a 30% usage in this tilt – and with 34+ FP in 3 of 4, is an elite DK value.

Small Forward

  1. Kelly Oubre Jr
  2. Mikal Bridges
  3. Josh Richardson
  4. Trevor Ariza
  5. Dorian Finney-Smith (elite DK value)

I don’t see SF as a position I would pay up for tonight, given Giannis is crazy expensive (and a little banged up) and Kevin Durant isn’t expected to have a heavy minutes total against a “gimme” game against Phoenix.

Instead, spending down for some higher ROI upside names like Bridges, Oubre, Richardson and Ariza feels like a wise path to profit. Get your 5-6x values depending on the site (DFS, Oubre and Ariza for DK; Richardson and Bridges for FD from a relative value standpoint) and focus on spending up elsewhere.

All of these guys should have high minute roles with game scripts that could favor them (be it a blowout for PHX, high scoring game for WAS and so on).

Power Forward

  1. Julius Randle
  2. Lauri Markkanen
  3. Dwight Powell
  4. Josh Jackson
  5. Jeff Green
  6. Special mention: Kevin Love (FD)

Powell is a borderline free square on DraftKings for his salary in my mind, for mid-$4K pricing. However, Randle and Markkanen are the two best options in the upper tier on the slate. Markkanen on DK in particular, as an excellent value.

Anthony Davis is crazy expensive for a guy we can’t guarantee we’ll get a normal minutes and usage allotment out of the rest of the way – so I don’t see the benefit of paying all the way up. Similarly, Blake Griffin is not jumping off the page as worthy of paying in a game that should not see a high pace (lowest total by a wide margin) – so I would hold onto your cash to pay up at PG, SG or C instead.

Jackson’s usage has been fantastic lately, and he’s primed for a big role once again especially as the Suns are projected to play from behind. Green’s minutes and recent L4G production is super hard to ignore – as a really solid value on both sites.

I quickly want to call out Kevin Love, who is questionable to make his 2019 calendar debut and is only $5,000 on FanDuel. If it appears that he’ll suit up and play 20 or so mins (as a baseline), the potential usage alone gives him a 6+ ROI ceiling but comes with risk.

Kenrich Williams is someone else that doesn’t make the top 5 (or 6) given AD is expected to return – but he’s made an impression and I would imagine is going to get a good look as the Pels think about 2019-2020. The own% will come down and I think there are better plays – but he’s someone to monitor.

Center

  1. Karl-Anthony Towns
  2. Nikola Jokic
  3. DeMarcus Cousins
  4. Mitchell Robinson
  5. Deandre Ayton

This shapes up as a position you’ll need to think long and hard about paying up for. Towns, Jokic and even Joel Embiid are in the picture – though I prefer pocketing a little cash and opting to pay down slightly from Embiid to one of the other 2.

Check out KAT’s last 5 games against the Pelicans: 48.7, 44.7, 49.7, 70.4, 78.9 FP. The last two in particular (70+ in each) came with 37 minutes and 32%+ usage. He’s cheaper than Embiid on both sites, too.

Jokic has a track record of being a bit of a match-up nightmare for bigs like Embiid – and he put together a 70 FP performance when these two teams last met. Again, another reason to roster him over The Process.

However, if you pivot down from the 5 digit options, consider Boogie (who will have a lower minutes outlook but still an elite usage role and 35+ FP projection) or even Ayton who has put together a couple impressive outings against the Warriors this year (albeit without Cousins playing).

Robinson should continue to see his role evolve and minutes increase for the Knicks, and is the value pivot I would recommend considering given his sub-$5K salary and 22-25 minute expectation in an elite DvP situation. In the first half of this home and home, he had 31 FP in just 24 minutes of action (1.1 FPPM will slowly find its way closer to 1.2 or 1.3 from here through the balance of the year).

Injuries

Players to monitor

Players already ruled out

About Jared Kwart

Jared is an expert fantasy sports player for both DFS and season-long formats. Specializing in DFS Baseball, Football & Basketball, with tens of thousands of dollars in career DFS earnings. Active player on FanDuel, DraftKings & FantasyDraft. Annual NFBC high stakes league participant.

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