April 16, 2018 – The Primer – MLB DFS Analysis

Featuring in-depth analysis of the main slate on April 16, 2018 (4/16). Daily fantasy baseball analysis for today’s MLB DFS slate to help you build winning cash game and tournament lineups on DraftKings.

 First and foremost – welcome to The Primer column for the 2018 MLB DFS Season! We’re thrilled to be back to the grind of the baseball season, helping you build killer DFS lineups for FanDuel, DraftKings or whatever other sites you choose to play on (this article does have a DraftKings bias though).

This article is a freelance piece, written by yours truly, for almost every day of the MLB Season.  I will be sharing my thoughts on the ‘Main Slate’ and the best ways to attack it when it comes to lineup construction.  I’ll be touching on all aspects of roster construction, along with some ideas when it comes to some of the best options on the board, both pitching, and hitting!

Main Slate – 7:05pm EST

Game Selection

Tonight, we have a 10 game slate that for the most part, is not reliant on the weather.  That said, there is an issue with the roof in Toronto – which serves them right for throwing shade at Mother Nature over the weekend.  Keep your eye on the Toronto game and any cancellation announcement that may occur as a result of it.  With that said, for the sake of the Primer, I will be opting for a Toronto fade, based on the news.


Pitching tonight isn’t all that deep.  There are three arms that I like, including Aaron Nola, Jacob deGrom and Blake Snell.  I’ll opt for a fade on deGrom tonight, the Nats have a potent line-up, and while I think deGrom is the best arm on the slate, I have no problem fading him, at what should be high ownership levels – when I like a couple of the middle priced arms a lot, in Nola and Snell.

Snell is my favourite of the bunch, going up against Texas at home tonight.  He fanned 10 hitters last time out, and while I wouldn’t expect double digit strike-outs tonight – I do think he easily hits value against a line-up without a whole heck of a lot of quality RH sticks.  While control can be an issue for Snell (4.11 BB/9 in 2017), he does miss plenty of bats, and I think he is able to navigate his way through the Rangers tonight.

To compliment Snell, Nola is a close second choice for me.  He faces a solid, but unspectacular Braves line-up tonight – and won’t break the bank (though he isn’t too cheap – I like that to drive down ownership level on him).  The duo of Snell and Nola won’t break the bank, and I like his chances of being one of the best ROI’s as far as arms go for tonight’s slate of games.  His advanced stats indicate that his 1.96 ERA through 3 starts is a little too good to be true, given his sub 7 K/9 production, but I like his chances of having that metric trend north, starting tonight.  The match-up isn’t a cupcake – but it’s not one to fear either.

Let’s Talk some Bats…

Tonight – if the Jays game goes, I wrote in the hitter’s rundown about my love of the Pearce, Hernandez, Smoak stack.  You can safely deploy this trio if the game happens.  You can support them with…. (or substitute with if the game doesn’t go):

The Phillies.  They are in a great spot tonight against homer-prone Julio Teheran.  The Phillies sit 5th in the league in terms of runs scored on the young season, and aren’t getting the ownership levels that they should be.  Facing a homer-prone righty tonight, I love the spot that the likes of OF Rhys Hoskins, OF Obudel Herrera, and to a lesser extent, 3B/SS Scott Kingery (Cesar Hernandez is out of the line-up).  Keep an eye on the line-up Philly posts, as they have a lot of options for manager Gabe Kapler when it comes to filling out the line-up card.

Finally, another mini-stack I like tonight is OF Khris Davis and 3B Matt Chapman.  Both of them have been swinging it for Oakland, and while R.Lopez does have an electric arm, I don’t think he lasts long in this one, going up against an under-rated A’s line-up.  Davis has 4 HR’s in his last 4 games, and Chapman has just been raking early on in the season, something I think continues tonight.

Best of luck in your DFS adventures! 

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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