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January 12, 2018 – FanDuel NBA DFS Expert Lineup Picks – The Starting 5

FanDuel Expert NBA DFS Cash Game & GPP Lineup Picks for the Friday, January 12, 2018 main slate.

Daily fantasy basketball lineup advice, picks and plays (1/12) to help you win your NBA DFS contests.

Let’s take a closer look at some FanDuel plays for tonight’s contests with our “Starting 5” picks for the day’s main slate.

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In this column, we give you a play to consider at each position and then our Sixth Man, who is a key play we believe you should spend up for on the slate.

PG – Ricky Rubio, UTA, $5,100

I’m a little more set on Rubio as a GPP play tonight considering his tendencies to have a high beta, but it’s also hard to ignore him as a PG2 option in cash games on a 9 game slate. His usage rate has taken a bit of an increase in the New Year, rolling out at 21% or higher in 5 of his last 6. With that, we’ve seen 3 games of 33+ FDP in his last 5 outings – but –he minutes continue to be a little hard to handicap, fluctuating between the low to mid-20s and the high-30s at times. Against Charlotte, he’s in a decent spot to produce tonight, but does have a floor of sub-20 fantasy points. That being said, his stock is trending up and the price on FanDuel is still excellent for a guy that has 7.0+ ROI potential, which is what draws me to him on this slate.

SG – Devin Booker, PHX, $7,800

Booker has stumbled a bit over his last 3 games, failing to score more than 30.4 FDP in any of those contests. That said, one was at Denver (where shooters typically falter), and then the other two were at San Antonio and vs Oklahoma City who can both be very proficient at shutting down guards. The usage rate still tends to be elite for a him, and the price under $8,000 makes him far too elite of a potential value to ignore on this slate. This match-up is a far cry from the tougher ones that I’ve mentioned above – all of which have helped lower his price to this point. Look for him to bounce back with a pretty easy path to 35+ FDP as a baseline (40+ being more of where I expect him to finish) on the day.

SF – Gerald Green, HOU, $4,800

You’ll see a bit of a trend here, as I believe we have plenty of value in the HOU/PHX game to consider. A game stack is quite realistic, considering there are so many options at a variety of positions with high viability. Green continues to be too cheap on FanDuel for the $4,800 price tag, considering his high usage and bankable minutes role these days. He’s scored 24+ FDP in 4 of his last 5 games, with a  22% usage in that span (again in 4 of those outings). He’s been lighting it up from downtown, and while the FG% may come back to earth a little bit, he’s done a better job than many have expected (sustaining it for longer than conventional wisdom would have suggested). In a high total game vs a defense that struggles to contain opposing guards, he is one of the best value options at the SF position (and on the slate) this evening.

PF – Dragan Bender, PHX, $3,500

Marquese Chriss has been ruled out for the Suns tonight, which should lead to big minutes once again for Bender. He played nearly 40 against the Thunder on Jan 7th and finished with one of his best games as a pro (20-6-4-1-3) for 43.2 FDP. Is a repeat in order? Unlikely. But can he be a massive source of value at the $3,500 price tag on this slate? Absolutely. He’s a talented young player that is only going to get better as he plays more minutes, and with 30+ in the cards tonight, he has a great chance at hitting right around that mark in FDP with a pace-up, high-total game at hand.

C – Marcin Gortat, WAS, $4,500

The price remains too low for Gortat on this slate, especially when it appears he is in the midst of one of his strong runs of 10-12 games where he plays very well for the Wizards. He’s hit value in 4 straight games now, playing at least 26 minutes in that time with a fluctuating usage rate anywhere between 11% and 25%. He can be hard to predict from that perspective, but you can often put some of the pieces together when you scope out the opponent and see how they’ll play. With Vucevic out and Biyombo in, I expect Gortat will see 25+ minutes of floor time. And although Bismack is a far better defender, Gortat is a big body to handle in the post. I expect to see about a 18% usage rate here in his floor time against his old club, which will make it very difficult for him to not hit value at this price point. If you want to pay down at the position, he’s your guy. That said, there are plenty of $7,000+ options to roll with instead, should you prefer to go that route.

The Sixth Man

PG – Chris Paul, HOU, $10,800

The final guy in the HOU/PHX game that I’ll touch on here is CP3. He is nearly impossible to fade on the slate tonight, considering the uptempo game we’re expected to see between these 2 clubs and his high minutes/usage rate role with James Harden sidelined. He has scored 50.1 FDP and 68.9 FDP in his last 2 games for the Rockets, with 30% and 40% usage rates in those 2 contests. The price has certainly risen steadily over the last couple weeks, but rightfully so. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend playing Paul in GPPs as the ROI ceiling is more capped at this salary, but the fact of the matter is that the Suns are a great DvP match-up and he clearly has the keys to the offense these days sans Harden. He’s an excellent cash game staple for someone that is a near lock to play 35+ minutes with a usage rate of at least 30% – and with plenty of value on the board, you’ll have absolutely no problem making that work.

About Jared Kwart

Jared is an expert fantasy sports player for both DFS and season-long formats. Specializing in DFS Baseball, Football & Basketball, with tens of thousands of dollars in career DFS earnings. Active player on FanDuel, DraftKings & FantasyDraft. Annual NFBC high stakes league participant.

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