DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Targets & Picks – 2017 Shell Houston Open

DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Targets & Picks – 2017 Shell Houston Open

The PGA Tour has one more stop to make before we hit the Masters – and we have a pretty good field this week as many fine-tune their games before teeing it up at the Masters.  This week’s event is hosted at the Golf Club of Houston, which is a 7441 yard, par 72 course with plenty of hazards – both in the form of bunkers and water.  The rough isn’t as tough on golfers when compared with many of the other PGA courses, so accuracy isn’t paramount this week in my opinion.  That said, with the number of hazards in play – I wouldn’t completely load up on long bombers who lack the requisite control to properly navigate the course.

The picks will be focused on some of my top plays for each price level, quickly noting their DraftKings price – and rationale for why I like the play.  I need some time to process strategy for FD’s bizarre scoring system (despite strong finishes the past two weeks).  The two round per golfer format is rather bizarre as far as I am concerned, so I am only focusing on DK for the time being with my thoughts below:

Henrik Stenson ($10,400)

Stenson will be chalky this week – and usually I would just list him in the chalk section, but there is a good chance I just take 100% exposure on him this week.  He missed the cut at the Arnold, and after a week off – I like him to bounce back this week in Texas.  He has three top 3 finishes at this event in the past, and I like his chances of adding a fourth to that list.  He’s the class of the field in my humble opinion this week at this price point.  I am really hoping that some are scared off of him due to him missing the cut in his last tournament.  I don’t recommend following suit.

Rickie Fowler ($10,000)

Fowler has been playing outstanding golf, and I expect him to bring his A-game to the Houston Open right before the Masters.  He finished T10 his last time at this event, so he has shown he can be in contention at this event in the past, which is a nice bonus.  This pick is really all about his recent form though – he truly has been outstanding.  With pricing being relatively soft, you can easily pair him with the likes of Stenson for a rock solid core.  He has 4 straight top 16 finishes, and I like his chances of a top 10 finish this week.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($7,900)

He will be on this list pretty much every week until he starts to be priced higher.  I’m not sure if the reason he is priced lower is because he is not a mainstay on the American Tour, but he is a great value play.  You could get him at rock bottom ownership levels a year ago – and while those days are gone, I have no problem going significantly overweight exposure to him this week.  I like his chances of a top 15 finish.  His game is rock solid.

Jhonathan Vegas ($7,300)

With his current form, this price is pretty much criminal.  That said, I do believe there is a chance that he flies under the radar in terms of ownership levels.  I wouldn’t recommend fading him, assuming that he is chalk.  I’ve been wrong on this front before – but I will be happy to go into this weekend with a significant overweight position.  He has made 10 straight cuts, and has 4 top 15 finishes over that stretch.  He’s playing terrific golf.

Bryson DeChambeau ($7,600)

I was on DeChambeau last week – and continue to like him this week.  The price point for him this week will scare some away from him this week (he’s a little expensive for my liking), but if he can string together 4 rounds like he did last week, he could be a difference maker in your line-ups.  He’ll be significnatly higher owned this week than last, but I do think he’ll still be under-owned compared to levels that he should be.

The Chalk

Below are good plays, but ones that I expect to be fairly popular.  Unlike any chalk picks mentioned above, I will not be going over-weight with exposure here.  That said, there is risk to going with zero shares of any of those listed below:

  • Phil Mickleson
  • John Rahm
  • Jason Dufner
  • Jordan Spieth
  • Tony Finau (I think he could have highest ownership levels of the week)

Good luck this week!

 

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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