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FanDuel NFL DFS Lineup Advice and Analysis for Week 3 (9/24, 9/27)

FanDuel NFL DFS Lineup Advice and Analysis for Week 3 Fantasy Football Contests (9/24, 9/27 Slates)


Hey guys. My name is Geoff and I’m the founder of GoingFor2.com, a fantasy sports site not too dissimilar from Moxyball. During the course of the season I’ll be doing a couple of guest posts for Moxyball and I hope you’re encouraged to visit my site as well.

So let’s jump right in. Here is the format I’ll be using to feature players from every position.

Explosive Play – In the real-world NFL an explosive play is defined as any play over 20 yards, and those types of plays will typically win you football games. In the DFS world, an explosive play is a player that I think has the potential to put up huge fantasy production, based on his matchup, recent performance, and his history against the opposing team. These are the plays you need to win in the DFS world.

Deep Threat – A deep threat is a second or third tier player that I think will outperform their price on FanDuel, giving you the best Return on Investment (ROI).

Punt Play – This term is pretty universal — typically a GPP play only. It’s a player that has an outside shot to have a great game and will most likely be low-owned in large tournaments.

Missed Tackle – A missed tackle is a first or second tier player that I’ll be avoiding — be it because of match-up, weather conditions, or recent performance.

*note* I will not include kickers, because, well, they are kickers.

Quarterbacks

Explosive Play Carson Palmer, Cardinals ($8,100)

Carson Palmer has now strung together too huge games to start the season and now he gets the team that was lit up by Big Ben in Week 2. The 49ers secondary is extremely inexperienced and they will be exposed again by Palmer in Week 3.

Deep Threat Cam Newton, Panthers  ($7,900)

Newton has now had two back to back games in which he has had double-digit rushing attempts. His next opponent, the Saints, haven’t been able to stop anyone so far this year, and gave up a rushing touchdown to Jameis Winston in Week 2. Cam won’t put up huge passing numbers but as long as he keeps running he won’t have to.

Punt Play Andy Dalton, Bengals ($6,300)

The Ravens just let Derek Carr and the Raiders put up over 300 passing yards, and had of the Raiders starting wide receivers go over 100 yards receiving. Dalton has some good weapons and his price tag will allow you to pay up elsewhere.

Missed Tackle Eli Manning, Giants  ($8,000)

Last year Eli Manning had a huge game against the Redskins with five touchdowns — three of them going to Larry Donnell. This isn’t the same Redskins defense though and I expect Manning and the Giants to struggle on Thursday night. The one two punch of Alfred Morris and Matt Jones will keep Manning on the sideline much of the night. 

Running Backs

Explosive Play Le’Veon Bell, Steelers  ($8,800)

Le’Veon Bell makes his return from suspension this week, and he gets to face a Rams team that just got gashed by the Redskins on the ground. DeAngelo Williams played well in the first two weeks, but he likely won’t see the field other than in relief of Bell. 

Le’Veon Bell is also one of the few running backs that can be split out as a receiver and actually be a receiver — not just a decoy. I’m expecting Bell to have a huge debut and will likely be low owned since no one has seen anything from him yet. 

Deep Threat Latavius Murray, Raiders  ($7,000)

Latavius Murray has had a tough go of it in the first two games, but that could be because he has played some pretty good defenses in Ravens and Bengals. He gets the Browns in Week 3 and should find running a little easier, and because of his struggles his price is pretty low and should easily give a high ROI. 

Punt Play James Starks, Packers ($6,500)

Obviously this assumes Eddie Lacy sits out this game, and if he does, then Starks will have the backfield pretty much to himself. Starks would be a starter on most teams and he’ll get a chance to show his talent again this weekend. 

Missed Tackle Matt Forte, Bears ($8,400)

I had Matt Forte on this list last week and I nailed it. He only had 12 FanDuel points against a tough Cardinals defense. Not to mention John Fox has said that he wants to keep Forte fresh, which means limiting his time on the field. Add all those factors up with the fact he plays Seattle this week and that’s why he makes this list again. 

Wide Receivers

Explosive Play Odell Beckham Jr., Giants ($9,100)

How can I predict Eli Manning to struggle and then say ODB will be explosive? Easy. Manning will force it to Beckham every chance he gets. A few of those throws will result in interceptions, but Beckham is good enough that he will capitalize on at least two or three targets and make a big impact. He is really the only weapon the Giants have.

Deep Threat Brandon Marshall, Jets ($7,400)

Eric Decker may not play in this game so Marshall may get even more targets than he has seen in the first two games. He saw nine targets in Week 1 and 10 in Week 2. Not to mention the matchup is pretty juicy with the Eagles coming to town.

Punt Play Pierre Garçon, Redskins ($5,900)

Garcon has had two decent games against pretty good defenses. DeSean Jackson is going to miss this game, and the Giants can’t stop anyone. Garcon makes for a pretty good play in a Thursday night matchup.

Missed Tackle Calvin Johnson, Lions ($8,200)

Matthew Stafford hasn’t looked good yet this season and the Denver defense looks legit. That is a recipe for disaster right there.

Tight Ends

Explosive Play Rob Gronkowski, Patriots ($8,400)

Had him and Tom Brady as a “missed tackle” last week. Yeah. That didn’t work out so well. He gets the Jaguars this week, he could have another multi-TD game.

Deep Threat Greg Olsen, Panthers ($5,900)

Olsen had 14 targets in Week 2, which is what we expected of him in Week 1… better late than never I guess. He gets a good matchup with the Saints in Week 3 and I think a Cam Newton/Greg Olsen stack could be interesting. The Saints can’t stop anyone.

Punt Play Crockett Gillmore, Ravens  ($5,400)

We all know how much Joe Flacco likes to throw to his tight ends. Dennis Pitta was a household fantasy football name for a few years and Flacco even made Owen Daniels relevant. Gillmore may be the Ravens second best option in the passing game behind Steve Smith.

Missed Tackle Jimmy Graham, Seahawks  ($6,300)

Do I need to convince you on this one? How about this. 2/1/11. Whats that you ask? Targets/receptions/yards from his game against Green Bay, a game in which Russell Wilson threw the ball 30 times. 30 passes and only two targets. That’s not good.

Defense

Explosive Play Seattle Seahawks vs Bears  ($5,300)

They are playing the Bears, that’s all you need to know. Funny thing is, I may have liked them more if Jay Cutler were playing, Jimmy Clausen most likely won’t take any chances. He’ll dink and dunk and hand-off all game as the Bears will play it safe. Cutler on the other hand is good for two or three interceptions a game.

Deep Threat New England Patriots vs Jaguars  ($4,700)

They get a matchup with the Jaguars.

Punt Play New York Jets vs Eagles  ($4,500)

The Jets just made Andrew Luck look like Jay Cutler, imagine what they can do to Sam Bradford?

Missed Tackle Miami Dolphins vs Bills  ($4,600)

I had them as potentially the best defense in the AFC, so far they haven’t shown anything. Ndamukong Suh has two tackles in two games. His annual salary is $19 mil per year, so that’s $9.5 mil per tackle so far. Albert Haynesworth 2.0??

Flex

Flex players are just additional players I like, but just didn’t make the cut to be featured

I’d like to thank Jared and his team @Moxyball for letting me share some FanDuel knowledge, and if you like what you have read, come check out my team and I over at GoingFor2.com. Good luck this weekend!

About Geoff Lambert

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