The MLB DFS Pitching Primer on FanDuel & DraftKings – July 3, 2022

MLB DFS Pitching Picks - 2022 FanDuel DraftKings SP Strategies and Plays for Daily Fantasy Baseball

MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball pitchers on FanDuel & DraftKings for July 3, 2022.

Today’s best MLB DFS pitching picks to help you win your contests on FanDuel & DraftKings.

Solid nine-game slate for us this Sunday afternoon.

MLB Weather Outlook

After two straight days of us having to worry about the weather in several spots, the coast looks clear for today’s games.

Vegas Odds & Insights

Highest Win Probabilities

  • Framber Valdez (69.7%)
  • Devin Smeltzer (64.8%)
  • Carlos Carrasco (60.3%)

Lowest Team Totals

  • Los Angeles Angels (3.11 runs)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (3.35 runs)
  • Cleveland Guardians (3.65 runs)

Top Overall Plays – Main Slate

Brandon Woodruff– Woodruff made his return to the Brewers’ rotation after a month off and looked like he never took time off. In that start against the Rays, Woodruff pitched five innings and only allowed one run on two hits while striking out ten on his way to 32.05 DraftKings points. Today I don’t see why we don’t see a similar performance from Woodruff as he takes on a bad-hitting Pirates team. This season the Pirates rank in the bottom five in runs scored per game, team OPS, and team wOBA to right-handed pitching while having the fourth-highest team K rate against righties at 24.9%.

Value Plays – Main Slate

Jon Gray – Gray was on fire in the month of June. In his six starts in June, Gray had an ERA of 2.39, a WHIP of 1.01, and a 29.7% K rate. Gray had four quality starts in the month and produced at least 19 DraftKings points in five of his six starts with four starts going for at least 27 DraftKings points. I don’t see why Gray cannot continue his June success in his first start in July as he takes on a Mets team that is really struggling right now. Over the past two weeks, the Mets have had the second-lowest team OPS, the sixth-lowest team ISO, the lowest team wOBA, and the lowest team wRC+.

Devin Smeltzer – Smeltzer enjoyed pitching against the Guardians in his past two starts. In those two starts, Smeltzer allowed just one run while striking out 12 in 12 innings of action. Smeltzer produced at least 21 DraftKings points in both of those starts. While the match-up against the Guardians probably had a lot to do with Smeltzer’s performances as they are the worst hitting team in the majors against left-handed pitching the Orioles are not a much better team against lefties which makes me believe that Smeltzer can have a repeat performance in this one. This season the Orioles rank in the bottom ten in team ISO, team wOBA, and team OPS against left-handed pitching while having the third-highest team K rate at 25.6%.

Other Pitchers to Consider – Main Slate

Charlie Morton – Morton struggled to start the season but has rounded into shape as of late. In his past three starts, Morton has an ERA of 1.83, a WHIP of 0.86, and a K rate of 32.5%. Morton has at least 25 DraftKings points in three of his past four starts. Today we should see more of the same from Morton as he takes on a struggling Reds team that already struggled against right-handed pitching ranking in the bottom ten in team ISO and team OPS against them while having a top ten team K rate.

Framber Valdez – I normally prefer to target Valdez when he pitches on the road as he is so much better away from home than he is at home but even with him being at home today I really like him due to the match-up against the Angels. The Angles lineup has struggled against left-handed pitching all season long ranking in the bottom ten in team OPS, team ISO, and team wOBA against lefties while also having a team K rate in the top five.

Erick Fedde – If you are looking for a cheaper pitcher on this slate Fedde is not the worst option. Fedde has pitched at least five innings while not allowing more than three earned runs and striking out four batters in four straight starts. Fedde has double-digit DraftKings points in three of those four starts. With the Marlins struggling as of late we should see Fedde with another solid outing in this one.

 


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Published
Categorized as MLB

By Zach Qualtieri

Zach is an accomplished fantasy player who has had success in multiple sports across multiple platforms. Zach specializes in cash games where he can often be found playing $25 H2Hs but has also had a lot of success in GPPs as an 11-time winner of a large field GPP. When not talking about fantasy sports, Zach enjoys hanging out with his son. If you have any questions about fantasy or sports in general Zach can be found on Twitter @zachsgotmoxy.