DraftKings League of Legends Esports DFS Rundown (LCK-LPL) – July 1, 2022

DraftKings League of Legends Esports DFS Rundown (LCK-LPL) – July 1, 2022

Before hopping into the matchups, a note that effective 6/26, FanDuel is no longer offering League of Legends contests on their site.

Damwon Kia (DK) [-272] vs. KT Rolster (KT)

Damwon has started the split at 3-3 with a 5-4 games record. The losses here have come to GenG and T1, so the other group of elite teams in the league. Against the inferior competition, Damwon has taken care of business and KT falls in line with that here. KT is just 1-3 with a 33% games winning percentage. KT is a frustrating team as Aria, Cuzz, and Aiming haven’t been that bad statistically, but their top and support play has come up short. KT also called up Vicla to the active roster this week so while we do not have any confirmed starting rosters here, there is a chance Vicla starts over Aria for this one or at worst sometime this week. Any time we see these revolving doors at a position – especially a main position like mid-lane, it gives us a little bit of pause. The Damwon roster is built around big stage experience and both Showmaker and deokdam have had strong splits in terms of objective play. My concern with Damwon is they aren’t a team that searches out unnecessary fights. They would happily win a match with zero kills if it meant they played a strong objective game. Of course, that isn’t going to happen, it’s just that Dekodam is the only Damwon starter averaging more than three kills per game right now. Damwon is the better team here, but I don’t think a four-stack is necessary. I prefer them as a complementary stack personally as 1.) The LCK has less kill equity in general and 2.) Damwon plays objectively instead of aggressively in the less aggressive league already.

Edward Gaming (EDG) [-560] vs. ThunderTalk Gaming (TT)

I think a lot will look at ThunderTalk’s 1-3 record and also remember back to how poor they have been over the last year and a half, but really this team hasn’t been all that bad. I feel a bit bad for them as they have run into elite teams to start this split, being swept by V5 and JDG (the top two teams by standings right now) and then losing 2-1 against LNG. In their lone win, they swept Team WE and Southwind has played one of the best supports in the game so far – especially considering the record. Southwind is averaging 8.44 assists per game and less than two deaths per game for a team that is 1-3 and played three elite teams. Excitement kinda dies for a team though if you are hyping up their support player. Ucal and Puff have been solid as well this year. I guess my point is, this isn’t an instant lock guaranteed win, though EDG does deserve the -560 odds here. EDG is 4-1 on the split, but has gone to three games against Invictus and BLG in their last two games. Viper is still carrying this team in terms of overall KDA/Gold/CS – the rest of the team has been very good, but I speak often to just how good the LPL is with talent. Scout in mid-lane hasn’t seen a ton of kill equity yet this split, averaging just 2.62 kills per game. That being said he ranks second and third for CS/M and G/M. When you are playing a good mechanical game, you can carry a 19% team share in kills and Scot has a huge CS per match lead over Ucal here. Flandre is a slight concern for me as he has 27 deaths over his last three matches. While that covers eight games, that is still a pretty high number out of your top-laner. I try to make an argument for both sides in these writeups despite the odds. It is hard to see ThunderTalk winning the series – I can see them possibly winning a game if they dominate a draft, but when TT is facing the top-6 elite teams I still think they take losses. I think my general point is ThunderTalk is going to be a team in better matchups that can make an impact. The talent level in the LPL is increasing so much that even with bad records there aren’t any real bad teams. Team WE being an exception here – I think they end up being the whipping boy of the league all year.

Anyone’s Legend (AL) vs. Victory Five (V5) [-482]

Victory Five is the real deal at 5-0 and 10-1 in their games and they don’t even have their starting mid-laner in Rookie yet. I actually am not sure what this team is even going to do when they have them as Dream has been better than anyone could have predicted. V5 also has two elite junglers in Karsa and XLB. In four games from XLB he has only died one time and is averaging 5.75 kills, 0.25 deaths, and 7.25 assists per game. While it is hard to sit Karsa, I don’t know how you don’t play XLB going forward. That being said, he has played both his matches against very poor competition and Karsa is getting the start today. Dream has gone from sub to sitting second in the entire LPL in KDA and Photic in bot lane is leading the LPL in kills per game at 5.09. Oh yeah, and ppgod at support is averaging 10.09 assists per game which is good for second in the LPL. When it comes to aggression and fights, V5 is the cream of the crop for DFS purposes. Photic, Rich, and Dream all tank in the top-15 for gold per minute and while the CS numbers are a little lower, they just aren’t needed. Now, looking at Anyone’s Legend we have a team that has also been a lot of fun this split and actually has a 3-2 record. Their wins are over IG, BLG, and RA – so while not horrible teams, not elite either. They also were swept by LGD in a bit of a head-scratcher and then swept by LNG who is the toughest match they have had this split. When AL succeeds, they are usually feeding Betty who has three DFS performances over 80 fantasy points. The truth is, both of these teams want to fight. That is something that we don’t actually get a ton but we do see more in the LPL. Vicory Five has the edge in almost every lane here on paper, though again, Anyone’s Legend plays a style that if they scale ahead early can snowball into wins. The issue I have here is for AL to win they have to feed Betty or Forge and win their lane and neither Dream or Photic have really lost their lane at all this split. I think people will be tempted by AL here as they know they like to brawl, but I still prefer the V5 side here.

T1 (T1) [-237] vs. DRX (DRX)

My absolute excitement for this match probably would have been a little higher if DRX wasn’t upset by Liiv Sandbox on Wednesday along with T1 being upset by Kwangdong Freecs. I do not have the number calculated out, but the odds of both of these teams losing on the same slate after their 4-0 starts was very very low. So, what do we learn from it? Well, not a lot. We learn that Liiv Sandbox with Prince back is a threat, but that is a story for a different write-up. T1 was slowed down a ton against KDF and after winning game one just simply got out scaled. Zeus was crushed in top lane by Kiin falling behind on his Gwen by around 3k gold when all was said and done. T1 tried to steal KDF’s Gangplank top-lane play in game three and Kiin once again crushed Zeus with a final line of 7/0/9. KDF read what worked in game two and double-down in game three and T1 for the first time in a while struggled to adjust. But, we are still talking about T1 here – they are elite talent who likely got a little lazy after starting with a 1-0 series lead against an opponent who they are very clearly better than on paper. For DRX, they have followed a feed mid-lane script as Zeka has been a force so far to start the year. Zeka still led DRX in kills in game one despite the loss and in games two and three more gold was fed to their bot lane. Prince was simply able to out-play DRX, ending the series with 22 kills. So, what does this mean for this matchup? Zeka is going to run into Faker and Zeus is going to run into Kingen. I don’t think the top lane is the catalyst to this matchup, as it will come down to who is able to feed their carries quicker. T1 has won the last six meetings these teams have had, winning the last four matchups all in 2-0 wins. In terms of KDA, DRX actually falls above T1 here with Kingen, Zeka, and Pyoski averaging 5.7 KDA or higher. Zeka ranks third in the LCK for gold per minute, while Zeus and Gumayusi rank fourth and fifth. If you are a fan of League of Legends past just watching it for DFS purposes, this match is going to tell us a lot of how the split will shake out going forward with both teams coming off of upset losses. Both have something to prove here – more so DRX who was a non-competitive team just a year ago. T1 is human, but they still are favored for a reason. If running DRX stacks, Zeka is still the elite option for ceilings. We get T1 at a discount here compared to where they usually are, but I can see these games being slower and grindy. Due to price, if I am playing T1, we just have to go with Gumayusi at CPTN. T1 is the preferred stack, but DRX deserves ownership simply due to how low-priced they are. No DRX player has had a price this low all split and if they pull off the upset here, they will not only need to play perfect objectively, but the kills should come along with it. T1 doesn’t always want to take a fight, well, no one in the LCK seems to want to, but when teams decide to be aggressive it can snowball quickly.

Roster construction may get a little weird on this slate with four pretty substantial favorites. While upsets can and will happen (as we know), our +EV play is still creating rosters around teams that are favorites. Some of the easiest stacks to make with favorites here are V5/T1 and V5/DK. Due to four pretty large favorites and me not being comfortable enough to suggest DRX, KT, or Anyone’s Legend as realistic upset threats, I am excluding the Cheat Sheet today. So without a cheat sheet, here are a few extras for you.

Favorite CPTN plays: Viper, Dream, Showmaker, Gumayusi, Karsa, Zeka

Favorite Stack: V5 for slaying potential

Best chance at the upset: DRX

Best Value: Damwon Kia


Did you know FantasyCruncher is on TikTok, Twitter, YouTube, and Instagram? Follow along and never miss out on any of our free content!

Published
Categorized as eSPORTS, LOL

By James Smizek

James is a Daily Fantasy Sports vet dating all the way back to his days of writing content on DraftStreet.com for contest tickets. James specializes in College Football - qualifying for the CFB World Championship in 2018, though you can find his content for NFL, NBA, MLB, Tennis, and NASCAR on FantasyCruncher. James also picked up some new tricks during the Covid/sports shutdown, carving out a niche in League of Legends, Rocket League, and Call of Duty eSports. A winner of multiple large field GPP's, James hopes his knowledge can help you take down the next one. James currently resides in Wisconsin and is a huge Wisconsin sports fan. If you have any questions you can reach out to him @iKezims on Twitter.