NFL Chat Room
DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Ally 400 – June 26, 2022
Core Plays
Kyle Busch – DK: $11,000 | FD: $13,500 – Starting 36th
This one is a little bit unavoidable and is likely to be the chalk of the slate but Kyle Busch is starting back in 36th after not posting a qualifying time. Busch didn’t post a qualifying time because of a spin-out during his run – his team is not going to a backup car and will fix the damage. Looking at social media, it seems the damage should overall be a non-factor. Busch has been very boom-or-bust this season for DFS, with eight top-1o finishes over his last 11 races. Those other three were finishes of 30th, 21st, and 33rd. Busch started this far back earlier in the season at Vegas when he started 37th. He ended up finishing 4th in that race for almost 100 fantasy points. Busch has led at least 18 laps in six of his last seven and has double-digit fast laps in eight of his last nine. The track here at Nashville is a bit of a Darlington/Dover hybrid – both tracks Busch has always had solid success at.
Top Play Pivots: While I love the total ceiling of Busch, ultimately there is a lot to like from the front rows here. Tracks like this haven’t seen a ton of passing up front in large chunks, usually only shifting due to cautions or pit situations. Kyle Larson is always a threat on intermediate tracks, but his price is almost priced out of range here. Ryan Blaney and Ross Chastain are two other guys I figure to have a lot of exposure to today.
Michael McDowell – DK: $5,700 | FD: $4,000 – Starting 18th
To remain pretty frank here, I just don’t understand McDowell’s pricing. McDowell has five top-10 finishes over his last eight races and has an average finish of 16th on the year. McDowell is averaging 30.8 fantasy points on the year, which is higher than 13 drivers priced ahead of him. While the starting spot here is a little forward for the “value” guy, I think that works in our favor here with McDowell as he hasn’t had any real issues holding his spot when avoiding anything out of his control. Over McDowell’s last eight races he has fantasy points of: 42, 34, 38, 21, 47, 38, 53, and 43. Not sure we can ask anything more from a guy priced this low on each site. A lot of these races are intermediate tracks that are somewhat comparable here.
Cheat Sheet
| $ Tier | D |
|---|---|
| High | Kyle Busch (11k / 72.29) (13.5k / 72.29) |
| Ross Chastain (10.5k / 43.93) (12.5k / 43.93) | |
| William Byron (9.9k / 52.87) (11k / 52.87) | |
| Ryan Blaney (9.5k / 49.56) (10k / 49.56) | |
| Medium | Alex Bowman (8.7k / 38.86) (9.8k / 38.86) |
| Austin Cindric (7.9k / 45.61) (7.3k / 45.61) | |
| Ricky Stenhouse (7.1k / 32.28) (7k / 32.28) | |
| Low | AJ Allmendinger (6.8k / 24.78) (5.5k / 24.78) |
| Brad Keselowski (6.6k / 39.95) (6k / 39.95) | |
| Justin Haley (5.9k / 15.20) (4.5k / 15.20) | |
| Michael McDowell (5.7k / 28.58) (4k / 28.58) | |
