The NBA Finals – DraftKings & FanDuel NBA DFS Analysis: Game 6 – June 16, 2022
Before diving into the Game 6 analysis here, our Game 1 analysis covered a little bit more of a series preview with some matchups. While things will change game to game, I think checking this one out as a reference point is helpful as the series progresses.
- Robert Williams (Q) – Has carried this tag all playoffs and is at no real risk of missing.
- Otto Porter (Q)
- Andre Iguodala (Q)
Game 5 Optimal CPTN/MVP: Andrew Wiggins
Game 5 Optimal DraftKings Stack: 4-2 Stack (GS-BOS, GS CPTN)
Game 5 Optimal FanDuel Stack: 3-2 Stack (GS-BOS, GS MVP)
Favorite CPTN/MVP Options
Stephen Curry and Jayson Tatum are always going to be your top two options for your MVP spot for the rest of this series. Instead of writing them up each slate, we are just going to note it here instead. Both of these guys have the highest ceiling and each has returned near 4x value in each of their last eight games. These are also the usage leaders, so no surprise they carry high price tags. Both have a chance to break any slate.
Andrew Wiggins – Wiggins was optimal in Game 5 and his momentum should carry into Game 6. I don’t like the idea of chasing the optimal CPTN, but Wiggins has shot the ball 40 times over his last two games. Aside from that, he has pulled down double-digit rebounds in each of the last two games with 16 in Game 4 and 13 in Game 5. Wiggins has played 43 minutes in each of the last two as well – his rebounding upside has shortened the leash on Kevon Looney and with a chance to win the whole thing, I don’t think the Warriors have much to gain here by getting cute. So far in the Finals, Wiggins is averaging 18.4 points, 9.4 boards, 1.6 assists, and a steal and a block per game.
Robert Williams – I am going to stick with Robert Williams here despite only having 23 fantasy points on Monday. Williams still played 30 minutes, but absent from the box score was a steal or a block, which is only the first time that has happened with Williams in games he has played over 20 minutes. He also missed out on a double-double by only grabbing eight boards. Williams has been a huge factor for the Celtics defensively and while he isn’t going to be involved a ton on the offensive end he can fill up the sheet with peripherals. Williams’ best recent performances have been at home and in a must-win game, we should see the Celtics ride Williams as far as they physically can.
Al Horford – Horford’s price has dropped to a level that it has not been since March and he is still producing results. That being said, Robert Williams playing over 30-minutes has lessened the ceiling for Horford here as his rebounds per game have gone from around 10 per game against Miami to around 7 per game against Golden State. The usage is still around the 12.5% range, though the field goal attempts have dropped this series. Horford has still scored 34.5, 24, and 21.75 fantasy points over the last three and is still grabbing starts. The depth for the Celtics has been challenged a bit here as Derrick White and Grant Williams have seen their roles shrink recently. That means Tatum-Brown-Smart-Williams-Horford are going to likely play as many as physically possible in a do-or-die game. It is hard to predict who is going to be the force to step up, it probably isn’t Horford, but we have seen him catch fire before in these playoffs. We are finally getting a discount on him here and with pricing how it is, I can see him being a high upside
Gary Payton – Payton got an $800 price bump here but after playing 26 minutes on Monday we can expect that after putting up 27.75 fantasy points. Payton played 26 minutes at 16.3% usage scoring 15 points with five boards and three steals. Payton was the leading scorer for the Warriors off of the bench and played the most minutes off the bench. Payton’s defense is going to keep him on the floor and while we shouldn’t expect 75% shooting from the field, the minutes and usage are still higher than this price. I expect Payton to be the chalk value of this slate, but truthfully there aren’t really any other options.
|High||Stephen Curry (17.4k / 79.215) (24k / 75.705)||Stephen Curry (11.6k / 52.81) (16k / 50.47)||Jaylen Brown (9.8k / 45.78) (14k / 43.76)||Jayson Tatum (11.2k / 54.73) (15.5k / 52.28)|
|Jayson Tatum (16.8k / 82.095) (23.25k / 78.420)|
|Medium||Andrew Wiggins (12.3k / 62.685) (18.75k / 59.850)||Marcus Smart (8k / 37.12) (13k / 35.45)||Klay Thompson (7.6k / 40.21) (10.5k / 38.40)||Andrew Wiggins (8.2k / 41.79) (12.5k / 39.90)||Draymond Green (7k / 37.17) (11k / 35.49)||Robert Williams (6.8k / 36.45) (12k / 34.80)|
|Robert Williams (10.2k / 54.675) (18k / 52.200)||Al Horford (6.6k / 33.02) (10.5k / 31.53)||Kevon Looney (6.2k / 21.18) (9.5k / 20.25)|
|Low||Gary Payton II (4.2k / 19.74) (7.5k / 18.84)||Grant Williams (3.8k / 11.37) (8k / 10.85)|