The NBA Finals – DraftKings & FanDuel NBA DFS Analysis: Game 5 – June 13, 2022

The NBA Finals – DraftKings & FanDuel NBA DFS Analysis: Game 5 – June 13, 2022

Before diving into the Game 4 analysis here, our Game 1 analysis covered a little bit more of a series preview with some matchups. While things will change game to game, I think checking this one out as a reference point is helpful as the series progresses.

Key Injuries

  • Robert Williams (Q)
  • Otto Porter (Q)
  • Andre Iguodala (Q)

*Note: these three have carried Q tags in most games, Williams status appears “optimistic”. If Porter were to miss, we are likely looking at more minutes for Gary Payton and possibly Nemanja Bjelica.

Game 4 Optimal CPTN/MVP: Robert Williams (CPTN) – Steph Curry (MVP)

Game 4 Optimal DraftKings Stack: 3-3 Stack (BOS CPTN)

Game 4 Optimal FanDuel Stack: 3-2 Stack (BOS-GS, GS CPTN)

Favorite CPTN/MVP Options

Stephen Curry and Jayson Tatum are always going to be your top two options for your  MVP spot for the rest of this series. Instead of writing them up each slate, we are just going to note it here instead. Both of these guys have the highest ceiling and each has returned near 4x value in each of their last eight games. These are also the usage leaders, so no surprise they carry high price tags. Both have a chance to break any slate.

Robert Williams – One thing has been made clear and that is Robert Williams is a big problem for the Warriors despite this series being all tied up at 2 games a piece. Williams played 31 minutes in Game 4, which is his highest minutes since all the way back on March 15th. You might check the usage rate for Williams here and shy away, as it is sub-10%, but where he is making his presence felt is on the defensive end. Williams has 12 blocks in this series through just four games and has at least two in each game. He also has four steals in his last games as well as 7-of-8 shooting. Williams has grabbed double-digit rebounds in each of the last two and with the minutes on a rise, Williams is becoming more and more valuable. Williams was the optimal CPTN play on DraftKings for Game 4, so that could increase his ownership here. While I don’t want to make this sound like a chase play, a healthy Robert Williams against a Warriors team that I still deem as undersized is proving to be a key point in this series.

Klay Thompson – Curry is still going to absorb the highest volume shooting and usage in this offense but Thompson over his last two games has attempted a total of 34 shots. 23 of those have come from three-point range. Thompson has also not left the floor much, playing 39 and 41 minutes in the last two games with an average usage of around 21%. While we all know Curry can rock it from three, so can Thompson. If we get that game where Thompson gets hot from three his modest pricing can quickly lead to a spot in the optimal.

Salary Saving

Kevon Looney – Looney’s price has fallen below Robert Williams, Draymond, and Derrick White and while he was pulled from the starting lineup in Game 4, he actually played more minutes than he had in Games 1-3. Looney registered 28 minutes in Game 4 grabbing 11 boards, and scoring six points, with a steal and a block. What Looney lacks in a ceiling he has made up for with a floor as outside of a 17.75 fantasy point game in Game 3, Looney has had 3.8x value on his salary in 15 of his last 17 games. Looney may once again fall outside the starting five, but that in the end is likely a good thing for us. All this being said, if you have the salary to play Draymond Green over Looney, I do prefer that play.

Gary Payton – The absolute lowest price I think I am willing to go is Gary Payton here as there is no guy cheaper who is seeing any meaningful court time. Payton Pritchard maybe, as he has seen at least 10 minutes in each game, but he has just four total shot attempts over his last two and doesn’t contribute anywhere else. Payton isn’t seeing a ton of minutes either, just 10 in each of the last two, but they have come at 12.5% and 20.6% usage. In 10 minutes in Game 3, Payton scored five points with four boards and a steal and a block. Those things are almost required again to make this play worth it, but it is also a way to get both Curry or Tatum CPTN and then one also in a utility spot.

Cheat Sheets

$ TierCPTNPGSGSFPFC
High
Stephen Curry
(17.1k / 79.440)
(23.25k / 75.870)
Stephen Curry
(11.4k / 52.96)
(15.5k / 50.58)
Jaylen Brown
(10k / 44.38)
(14.5k / 42.38)
Jayson Tatum
(11k / 53.08)
(16k / 50.70)
Jayson Tatum
(16.5k / 79.620)
(24k / 76.050)
Medium
Klay Thompson
(11.1k / 59.490)
(17.25k / 56.820)
Marcus Smart
(8.2k / 35.49)
(12k / 33.89)
Klay Thompson
(7.4k / 39.66)
(11.5k / 37.88)
Andrew Wiggins
(7.6k / 38.81)
(12.5k / 37.05)
Al Horford
(7k / 33.51)
(10.5k / 32.02)
Robert Williams
(6.8k / 31.87)
(10k / 30.45)
Robert Williams
(10.2k / 47.805)
(15k / 45.675)
Draymond Green
(6.6k / 37.54)
(11k / 35.85)
Kevon Looney
(6.2k / 20.55)
(9.5k / 19.62)
Low
Gary Payton II
(3.4k / 13.30)
(7.5k / 12.70)
Grant Williams
(3.8k / 12.68)
(8k / 12.11)
Published
Categorized as NBA

By James Smizek

James is a Daily Fantasy Sports vet dating all the way back to his days of writing content on DraftStreet.com for contest tickets. James specializes in College Football - qualifying for the CFB World Championship in 2018, though you can find his content for NFL, NBA, MLB, Tennis, and NASCAR on FantasyCruncher. James also picked up some new tricks during the Covid/sports shutdown, carving out a niche in League of Legends, Rocket League, and Call of Duty eSports. A winner of multiple large field GPP's, James hopes his knowledge can help you take down the next one. James currently resides in Wisconsin and is a huge Wisconsin sports fan. If you have any questions you can reach out to him @iKezims on Twitter.