DFS Analysis of UFC Fight Night 207: Volkov vs Rozenstruik (June 4, 2022)

Top DFS Plays for UFC Fight Night 207: Volkov vs Rozenstruik (6/4/22)

The UFC returns for more MMA action from The Apex in Las Vegas. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.

 

Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around

ERIN BLANCHFIELD (DK $9,600 / FD $22) – Buyer beware – Blanchfield’s salaries on both platforms are extremely limiting, but her ability to dominate fighters with high-level grappling cannot be overlooked. In her first two UFC fights, she averaged 120.5 FPPF (DraftKings scoring) while averaging 5.0 takedowns per fight and an astounding 10:51 control time per 15 minutes inside the octagon. To date, her only loss is by split decision to Tracy Cortez – easily one of the best grapplers in the flyweight division. Her opponent, J.J. Aldrich, is nowhere near the grappler that Cortez is. Blanchfield should have an easy time taking this fight to the ground where she will dominate once again. Aldrich is a solid opponent, but Blanchfield’s takedowns are next level. Look for another big number from Blanchfield in this fight.

(At the time of this writing, Erin Blanchfield is -526 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 79.64 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

Fighter with the Best Value

TONY GRAVELY (DK $8,400 / FD $16) – Gravely’s value is based largely on his high fantasy ceiling, and not entirely about his win probability. He is 3-2 in the UFC with an average of 91.5 FPPF. In victory, he is averaging 125.4 FPPF. He is the favorite to defeat Johnny Munoz on Saturday, and once again his ceiling is very high. This fight is worth a lot of exposure on both sides but Gravely should get the bulk of those lineups. Munoz started his career with 10 straight wins but has gone just 1-1 since joining the UFC. I like Gravely to give Munoz his second loss here, and even an average score from him here would make him a solid DFS play on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Tony Gravely is -127 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 58.85 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

Fighter with the Best Upset Potential

KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ (DK $7,900 / FD $15) – Kowalkiewicz has been on a terrible slide of late. She has lost 5 straight coming into her fight with Felice Herrig. The last time she won was in 2018 against – Felice Herrig. Herrig herself is on a bad slide having lost 3 straight (including her loss to Kowalkiewicz) and has not won since 2017. Prior to her current losing streak, Kowalkiewicz had won 5 of 7 in the UFC. As she ascended the ranks, she showed herself to be a less than elite fighter falling to the likes of Jessica Andrade, Michelle Waterson, and Yan Xiaonan in her losing streak. She has come back to earth, and it is there she finds Herrig who is no elite fighter herself. This fight is no sure thing, but I like her chances at the upset. In her last 4 victories, Kowalkiewicz is averaging a very solid 85.6 FPPF.

(At the time of this writing, Karolina Kowalkiewicz is -101 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 58.54 on Fantasy Cruncher.) 

 

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

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Categorized as MMA

By Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.