MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball pitchers on FanDuel & DraftKings for May 24, 2022.
Today’s best MLB DFS pitching picks to help you win your contests on FanDuel & DraftKings.
We have a nice 10 game main slate here on Monday, with lineups locking after 7:00pm EST.
MLB Weather Outlook
As of this point in the day, we’re not expecting to see any games with serious weather risk. There are a couple spots that could be a bit of trouble later in the day though, so keep an eye on St Louis, Atlanta and Chicago who could potentially see the forecast change for the worse. Still, we don’t expect those to be high probabilities of major disruptions.
Vegas Odds & Insights
Highest Win Probabilities
Lowest Team Totals
- Baltimore (3.02 runs)
- Detroit (3.02 runs)
- Oakland (3.12 runs)
Top Overall Play – Main Slate
Corbin Burnes – Despite not owning a high win% in this one (in large part due to being on the road today), Burnes sits as one of the top overall plays on the slate this evening. His 3.1 opponent run total is excellent, and the matchup with an inferior offense (.293 wOBA, 23.4% K%, 28.5% hard hit rate in the split) is very exploitable. Not to mention a 19% whiff% and 40% chase% for him over his last 5 starts with an elite 11.0 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 combo. His stuff is electric, and the price isn’t outrageous at all to roster him. Lock and load tonight with a high degree of confidence.
Value Play – Main Slate
Sonny Gray – This one feels almost like a bit of a misprint for DraftKings in terms of salary, with Gray checking in at a mere $6,800 against the lowly Tigers. They continue to struggle in the split, sporting a league-low .256 wOBA in the split vs RHP and a highly exploitable 25.7% K% against RHP as well. Gray has a 12.6 K/9 in his last 3 starts to go along with a 59% ground ball rate and 2.73 SIERA in that time – so you can see he’s rounded nicely into form of late, too. Dollar for dollar, there isn’t another pitching I feel better about for their price point on the slate.
Other Pitchers to Consider – Main Slate
Dylan Cease – If it weren’t for a matchup with the Red Sox today, I’d be holding Cease as my top SP on the slate. No question about it. His 15.6 K/9 in his last 5 starts is other-worldly, and the 2.05 SIERA he’s put together in that time leads the slate as well. Keep in mind, however, that the Red Sox haven’t been their normal elite selves over the course of 2022 – but also that Rafel Devers and Trevor Story in particular are heating up right now. That said, I’ll still lean on the Chicago RHP continuing his true breakout season and putting together 6 or 7 productive innings with 7-8 Ks – and perhaps at a lower ownership rate than he should have for GPP purposes.
Framber Valdez – The Guardians are a bit of an anomaly in baseball this year, owning some great numbers against RHP (.334 wOBA) but some of the worst against LHP (.279 wOBA) to showcase the stark contrast they have in terms of lineup balance. Enter the ground ball specialist Valdez here today, who has a 62.1% ground ball rate in his last 5 starts to go along with an elite 1.91 ERA and 3.08 SIERA. With his ability to turn in quality starts at a great clip, and checking in at a mere $8,200 on DraftKings, I not only think he’ll have himself a great outing, but I do feel he’s a stronger play than the other lefty below who should see far higher ownership right around the same salary.
Jordan Montgomery – Despite him owning the highest win% on the slate and being one of the lower opponent totals in this one, Montgomery is a bit further down my list today. His price of $8,000 on DK is reasonable, but he owns the 9th best SIERA over the last month amongst qualified starters here and has been struggling quite a bit with the long ball of late. There is still some upside here, but given the expected popularity he’ll see as a result of facing the Orioles at a decent price point, I’d rather keep exposure on the limited side in this one. Especially for a guy that just doesn’t strike many hitters out (7.3 K/9 in his last 5 starts).