DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – AdventHealth 400 – May 15, 2022

DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – AdventHealth 400 – May 15, 2022

Core Plays

William Byron – DK: $9,900 | FD: $11,500 – Starting 13th

While William Byron has only cracked the top-five once in his last five races here in Kansas, he has managed to finish in the top-ten in all of them, with a 6th and 9th place finish in two races here last year. Byron has five top-ten on the year in 14 races, but also has the second highest fantasy points per race at 42.8. The only drivers to average more than him on the year are Chase Elliot and Ross Chastain. Las Vegas is our most comparable track here and at Vegas Byron finished 5th and with 55.85 fantasy points. Byron is having the best season of his career with two wins and eight top-ten finishes – as well as 544 total laps led. Over the last seven races, Byron has led at least 24 laps in five of them. Two of them were 122 laps or more (212 in his Martinsville win). While these stats don’t directly apply to different track types that we are dealing with, Byron has always had solid success at 1.5-mile tracks and his current form keeps Byron as one of the best fantasy options in DFS.

Michael McDowell – DK: $5,300 | FD: $4,000 – Starting 25th

This is a price that is just too low and didn’t receive a correction like I thought it would. This is the second-lowest price McDowell has been in the last three races, with the lowest being $5,200 and the highest being $6,800. Over McDowell’s last four races he has finished 7th, 17th, 8th, and 9th and in 14 races has five top-ten finishes to his name. For perspective, to find another driver with five top-tens on the year, we have to move our pricing all the way up to Kurt Busch at $7,100 and then Erik Jones at $7,700. McDowell is averaging 29.8 fantasy points a race which believe it or not is a higher per race average than the most expensive driver on the slate in Kyle Larson. Of course, Larson’s come from the boom or bust races where he has either taken a top-five or wrecked and finished with negative points. But at this price we are not chasing wins, we are just chasing value and a high enough floor for us. This hasn’t been the best track for McDowell in his career but has finished top-20 in his last four runs here. But more importantly, the equipment and form is good and this price is just simply far too low.

Cheat Sheet

$ TierD
Kyle Larson
(11.1k / 57.92)
Chase Elliott
(10.9k / 67.92)
William Byron
(9.9k / 55.83)
Ross Chastain
(9.7k / 38.21)
Joey Logano
(9.6k / 78.39)
Alex Bowman
(9.3k / 41.53)
Kevin Harvick
(8.7k / 62.17)
Erik Jones
(7.7k / 35.67)
Ricky Stenhouse
(6.8k / 37.36)
Chris Buescher
(6.7k / 30.04)
Noah Gragson
(5.5k / 32.02)
Harrison Burton
(5.4k / 17.72)
Michael McDowell
(5.3k / 12.74)
Todd Gilliland
(4.9k / 14.84)

About James Smizek

James is a Daily Fantasy Sports vet dating all the way back to his days of writing content on DraftStreet.com for contest tickets. James specializes in College Football - qualifying for the CFB World Championship in 2018, though you can find his content for NFL, NBA, MLB, Tennis, and NASCAR on FantasyCruncher. James also picked up some new tricks during the Covid/sports shutdown, carving out a niche in League of Legends, Rocket League, and Call of Duty eSports. A winner of multiple large field GPP's, James hopes his knowledge can help you take down the next one. James currently resides in Wisconsin and is a huge Wisconsin sports fan. If you have any questions you can reach out to him @iKezims on Twitter.

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