DFS Analysis of UFC 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje (May 7, 2022)

Top DFS Plays for UFC 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje (5/7/22)

The UFC returns for more MMA action from Footprint Center in Phoenix. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.


Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around

NORMA DUMONT (DK $9,100 / FD $19) – Dumont is just 4 fights into her UFC career, but she is showing amazing promise to become a legitimate contender in the featherweight division. In her debut, she left her hands down and got caught by a perfect right from Megan Anderson to end her day. Since then, she is on a 3-fight win streak and is carrying an average of 81.8 FPPF (DraftKings scoring) during that streak. She will face Macy Chiasson who presents a small submission threat (I still prefer Dumont on the ground) but lacks the power to stand toe to toe with Dumont. Chiasson is 2-2 over her last 4 fights, and despite a 4-inch height advantage, she will be outclassed in striking. This is why Dumont is a better than 2-to-1 favorite here. Look for Dumont to get her first UFC finish in this one. She will use her boxing to set up the easy takedown and score her third career submission on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Norma Dumont is -230 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 62.12 on Fantasy Cruncher.)


Fighter with the Best Value

KHAOS WILLIAMS (DK $8,300 / FD $16) – Williams is now 4-1 in the UFC, and has won consecutive fights leading up to his matchup with Randy Brown. Brown is a tough veteran fighter, but with 3 losses over his last 8 fights, he is clearly beatable. Williams, on the other hand, has 3 finishes in 4 wins inside the octagon. Two of his finishes came inside the first 30 seconds of the fight. He is averaging 102.2 FPPF (DraftKings scoring) in his 4 victories. He will have to deal with a 3-inch height disadvantage, but his reach falls just an inch shy of Brown’s. Most importantly, his value is bolstered by the fact that his salary is just above average on DraftKings and right at the average on Fanduel. I expect a fast start to this fight, and as the favorite, Williams has good scoring potential in a fight that is a -175 to end before going to the judges’ scorecards.

(At the time of this writing, Khaos Williams is -120 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 59.65 on Fantasy Cruncher.)


Fighter with the Best Upset Potential

MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA (DK $7,800 / FD $13) – De Lima has had mixed results in the UFC, but he has eclipsed the century mark in scoring (DraftKings scoring) in 3 of his last 4 fights. Only the undefeated, Alexander Romanov, has beaten him since the start of 2020. He faces Blagoy Ivanov who is just 2-3 in the UFC, and who stands 2 inches shorter and gives up a 2-inch reach disadvantage to de Lima. De Lima stands 6’1″ tall, and his last 3 losses have all been to fighters taller than him (Romanov – 6’2″ / Stefan Struve – 7’0″ / Ovince St. Preux – 6’3″). I like de Lima to score the upset here, and I have little respect for Ivanov’s skills. At this price, de Lima is going to get a lot of play for me.

(At the time of this writing, Marcos Rogerio de Lima is +125 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 48.66 on Fantasy Cruncher). 


That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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