Top DFS Plays for UFC on ESPN 35: Font vs Vera (4/30/22)
The UFC returns for more MMA action from The Apex facility in Las Vegas. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.
Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around
ALEXANDER ROMANOV (DK $9,600 / FD $23) – Romanov is in his own tier this week. He is the only fighter favored to get a finish on Saturday at -560 to win inside the distance. The next closest fighter in odds is a +135 dog to finish his opponent. Overall, he has an average of 109.7 FPPF (DraftKings scoring), and outside of his split decision win over Juan Espino, he is averaging 123.8 FPPF when scoring the finish – and he is a heavy favorite to do so again. His opponent, Chase Sherman, had lost 3 consecutive fights in the UFC and had been released from promotion before being called up to fill in as Romanov’s foe for this event. All signs point toward a decisive win for Romanov who has a perfect 15-0 record as a professional.
(At the time of this writing, Alexander Romanov is -2041 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 89.93 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Value
GRANT DAWSON (DK $8,700 / FD $19) – Dawson has the second-best average of all fighters on Saturday at 90.6 FPPF (DraftKings scoring). Overall, his record stands at 17-1-1, and he is undefeated in nearly 6 years, dating back to a TKO loss in April of 2016. After earning his UFC shot via the Contender Series, he has gone on to a 5-0-1 record with the promotion. Over his undefeated streak, he has 6 finishes to go along with 2 decisions and 1 draw. This would be an easy play if not for his opponent, Jared Gordon, who has won 3 straight coming into this fight. Over his last 7 fights, however, Gordon is just 4-3 and has not scored a finish since June of 2017. I like Dawson here, however, and his scoring potential at this price point can’t be overlooked. Outside of his draw last time out, Dawson is averaging 98.8 FPPF in his 5 wins inside the octagon.
(At the time of this writing, Grant Dawson is -183 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 64.35 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Upset Potential
FRANCISCO FIGUEIREDO (DK $8,000 / FD $14) – Figueiredo is not the fighter his brother (and current flyweight champ), Deiveson Figueiredo, is, but he is an up and coming fighter who is matched against an opponent who is extremely beatable. Figueiredo is 12-4-1 with 1 no-contest decision, and he has 10 finishes in his 12 victories to date. He is a high-level grappler with 7 submissions to his credit. He is only 1-1 in the UFC, but his opponent, Daniel Lacerda, is 0-1 with the promotion and was finished by TKO in his first fight inside the octagon. Lacerda is the betting favorite in this one, but Figueiredo is up to the task, and I expect this fight will be very close with Figueiredo having a good chance at an upset and a possible finish.
(At the time of this writing, Francisco Figueiredo is +108 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 57.65 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!