UFC Fight Night 205 – April 23, 2022: Jessica Andrade vs Amanda Lemos

Fight Study (4/23/22)

The strawweight division will take center stage for UFC Fight Night 205 when the division’s #1 ranked contender, Jessica Andrade, takes on the division’s #10 ranked contender, Amanda Lemos, from the Apex facility in Las Vegas. Both fighters are coming off of wins, however, it is the top-ranked contender, Andrade, who will be the significant favorite on Saturday. She is also the more expensive DFS play with a salary of $8,900 on DraftKings and $22 on Fanduel. Lemos is available in lineups for $7,300 and $15 respectively. This fight is the Main Event and therefore has been scheduled for 5 rounds of MMA action. Current odds suggest, however, that this fight will reach an earlier conclusion as this fight is a -200 favorite to finish prior to reaching the judges’ scorecards.

Andrade has a professional record of 22-9 with 9 wins by KO/TKO, 7 wins by submission, and 6 wins by decision. She is coming off of a first-round TKO of Cynthia Calvillo, but she is just 2-3 over her last 5 fights. It is fair to note, however, that those 3 losses have all come against current or former titleholders – Weili Zhang, Rose Namajunas, and Valentina Shevchenko. She is 6-4 over her last 10 fights, with her 4th loss over that span coming via another former champ, Joanna Jedrzejczyk. In fact, Andrade is a former champion herself having defeated Namajunas for the belt in their first fight back in 2019. She lost her first title defense to Weili Zhang just months later. Andrade has ferocious power for this division, and her submission game is quite good as well. With a win here, she will be in good shape for another title shot against the winner of Namajunas/Esparza who will contend for the strawweight belt in two weeks.

Lemos has a career record of 11-1-1 with 7 wins by KO/TKO, 2 wins by submission, and 2 wins by submission. She has won 5 straight coming into this fight, and her last fight was a decision win over arguably the best boxer in the division, Angela Hill. In fact, her only loss in the UFC was a bantamweight fight against Leslie Smith who stood a full 5 inches taller. Since fighting in the strawweight division, Lemos is a perfect 5-0 inside the octagon. She has great hands and hits with good power, but will need to keep this fight at distance to avoid Andrade whose power is next level. Lemos will have the length advantage, however, as she stands 3 inches taller and has a 3-inch reach advantage as well.

Current odds make Andrade a better than 2 to 1 favorite, but I believe this fight is a dangerous one for her. Much like her fights with Namajunas, Andrade will be outmatched by Lemos’ striking skill set, but her power makes up for so much. At distance, Lemos will have the advantage. On the ground and in a phone booth, Andrade will have the upper hand. Although the smaller octagon of the Apex plays to Andrade’s favor, Lemos is fully capable of getting a decision win here if she can stick and move effectively. Her longer reach will be key to making that happen. It will be hard to do this over a 5-round fight, however, and Andrade needs only one well-placed strike to stun an opponent.

In DFS contests, I find this matchup to be well worth exposure on both platforms. The salaries of both fighters with respect to the field are much better on DraftKings, and the value of both women there is very good. I also like the scoring potential for this fight as only Alexander Romanov is averaging better than these two of all fighters on Saturday. I will lean toward heavier use of Lemos on DraftKings where she is priced well below the average salary, but I find her salary a bit too high on Fanduel for my liking. Overall, I agree with the oddsmakers in making Andrade the favorite, but I disagree with the disparity in odds. I would not be at all surprised to see an upset here and will be featuring Lemos in a lot of lineups.

That’s all for this edition of Fight Study. Good luck with your lineups! For more advice on DFS contests for MMA, click HERE.

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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