DFS Analysis of UFC Fight Night 205: Lemos vs Andrade (April 23, 2022)

Top DFS Plays for UFC Fight Night 205: Lemos vs Andrade (4/23/22)

The UFC returns for more MMA action from The Apex facility in Las Vegas. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.

 

Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around

TYSON PEDRO (DK $9,300 / FD $21) – Pedro is -285 to get a finish in his fight against Ike Villanueva on Saturday. Yet, he is third in salary on DraftKings and tied for third on Fanduel. He is only 3-3 in the UFC, but each of his 3 wins has come in the first round, and overall he has 7 first-round finishes in 7 victories as a professional. Villanueva is just 1-4 in the UFC and has been finished in all 4 of his losses with the promotion. Look for Pedro to get his submission game going as Villanueva has given up submissions in 5 of his career losses to date. You really can’t go wrong with the top salaried fighters on Saturday, but Pedro is priced low enough to allow for a better value at the bottom of lineups in DFS contests on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Tyson Pedro is -613 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 83.71 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

Fighter with the Best Value

CHARLES JOURDAIN (DK $8,500 / FD $17) – Jourdain is 3-2-1 over his last 6 fights. In victories, over that span, he is averaging 109.1 FPPF (DraftKings scoring), and in losses, during that span, he has an average of 41.7 FPPF. He has a high ceiling with a solid floor, and he is the favorite over Lando Vannata who hasn’t finished an opponent in over 5 years. This fight is closely handicapped, and Jourdain is not a sure thing here, but his ability to score (especially against an opponent with little finishing ability), win or lose, makes him an attractive play in cash lineups. In addition, his ceiling is high enough to make him a solid GPP play at his moderate salary.

(At the time of this writing, Charles Jourdain is -119 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 58.25 on Fantasy Cruncher.) 

 

Fighter with the Best Upset Potential

CLAUDIO PUELLES (DK $8,000 / FD $15) – After dropping his UFC debut over 5 years ago, Puelles has gone on to win 4 straight leading into his fight with Clay Guida on Saturday. During that span, he has 2 submission wins along with 2 wins by decision. Over his last 3 fights, he averaged 89.7 FPPF (DraftKings scoring), and he has nearly even odds with Guida despite being the cheaper play on both platforms. Meanwhile, Guida is 2-3 over his last 5 fights and has given up an average of 89.9 FPPF in those losses. Finally, just two days after his 26th birthday, Puelles is 11 years younger than Guida who is fading as quickly as Puelles is rising. I like an upset here from Puelles, and I wonder just how many fights Guida has left in him.

(At the time of this writing, Claudio Puelles is -110 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 55.34 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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