Chalk Talk: NFL DFS Player Ownership Report – DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 18 (1/9/22)

Chalk Talk: NFL DFS Player Ownership Report – DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 18 (1/9/22)

Welcome to Chalk Talk – an article dedicated to deep diving the slates projected highest owned players.

In this article, we will look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is considered a hot, cold, or neutral option for this week.

As a note, if I am hot on a player, I will likely have ownership over the projected amount. Cold means I will have ownership considerably lower than the projected amount, while neutral means I am around the projected amount. It should be noted that ownership projections are still projections, and this article is based solely on my personal opinions. Importantly, ownership projections are always changing, so the values in this article may not be the values at the time of lock. This article is usually drafted late Friday/early Saturday before the slate.

Name DK Salary FD Salary Matchup DK Ownership Projection FD Ownership Projection Position
Josh Allen 8,100 8,800 NYJ@BUF 13.6% 15.1% QB

Verdict: Neutral – With 13-games on our main slate, we have a lot of playoff scenarios and some games that really will have no real impact on anything. So while we should be able to navigate the field this week, just know that the field may also be littered with some landmines if we step in the wrong spot. The chalk this week is mostly coming from teams with things to play for and we get that here with the Bills. The Bills can lock up the division with a win so there is no reason to think Buffalo will rest any starters, unless they jump out to a massive lead. That being said, the Jets have played much better football over the last few weeks and despite the 28.25 team total for the Bills, the Jets defense has shown improvement. Allen has gone for 21 or more fantasy points in each of his last four starts and passed for 366 yards and two touchdowns when these two teams met back in week 10. The Bills won that game in New York 45-17. We know what we are getting with Allen 18 weeks into the season – he is a huge dual-threat option in a very favorable option. If you also read this article weekly you know my theory on quarterbacks is almost to never go all-in on anyone. His 15% ownership projection tops the projection this week and I think the 15-20% range is perfectly acceptable. If you want to go higher that is your choice! I am not here to steer you in one direction or the other, just my personal approach to quarterbacks.

Name DK Salary FD Salary Matchup DK Ownership Projection FD Ownership Projection Position
Jonathan Taylor 9,300 10,200 IND@JAX 23% 28.7% RB

Verdict: Neutral – The match is pretty easy for the Colts here – win and you are in the playoffs. Indy also gets the benefit of playing the Jaguars, BUT Indy also has not won in Jacksonville in the last four years. In control your destiny scenario’s you focus on what got you there, and what has got the Colts there is Jonathan Taylor. The Jags have a bottom-five rush defense and is allowing the second-most points per game.Taylor has 1,734 yards and 20 touchdowns. There isn’t much that needs to be explained here. The drawback is the price and the only thing limiting us. I can back a big argument on fading a $10,200 running back at near 30% ownership as that is a ton of salary leverage, but if he is ever leaned on this will be the game. Jacksonville knows what is coming, but I don’t think they have the prowess to stop it even if you know it is coming.

Name DK Salary FD Salary Matchup DK Ownership Projection FD Ownership Projection Position
Justin Jefferson 8,100 8,500 CHI@MIN 22% 25.3% WR

Verdict: Cold/Neutral – This one surprised me a little bit and actually made me think for a while before laying my fingers to the keyboard. At first glance, I was cold on this play and I was pretty prepared to explain why, but after reassessing I think it is a fine play, but also one I am still a little weary on. Kirk Cousins is back this week and Justin Jefferson on paper is set up for a massive target share against a shaky Bears secondary. But then hits the prospect of the Vikings have nothing to really play for, so do they let the superstar pieces (Cook, Jefferson) maybe take it a little easier to avoid any injuries. But then, I kind of thought of it from a coaching staff perspective – this is a staff that could be playing for their jobs as a coaching change in Minnesota wouldn’t surprise me after this. Does Zimmer slam the foot on the peddle in hopes of keeping his job? This is one of those landmine situations that everything should go fine, but there is an underlying doubt for me. Add in the fact that this is the highest projected owned wide receiver and if we get it right by fading him we gain a ton of leverage across contests. I am cold to neutral on this one, I am hoping we get some concrete news on playing time before kickoff. We should assume it is all systems go (and maybe then some).

Name DK Salary FD Salary Matchup DK Ownership Projection FD Ownership Projection Position
Zach Ertz 5,300 5,600 SEA@ARI 15.6% 15.9% TE

Verdict: HotZach Ertz has three straight weeks between 11-14 fantasy points but while that seems low he also has a total of 33 targets and 21 receptions. While Ertz has not found the end zone recently and isn’t carving out massive chunk yardage plays, an average of 11 targets per game is a massive number for us here. Ertz over the last month is tied with Christian Kirk for the team lead in targets and the Seahawks allow the eighth most points to tight ends on the year. The Cardinals need to win and have the Rams lose to clinch the division title, so there is something to play here. The price is perfect here and the 15% ownership projection isn’t too high to worry about eating the chalk. I will be considerably over the field on this play.

Name DK Salary FD Salary Matchup DK Ownership Projection FD Ownership Projection Position
Cleveland Browns 2,600 4,500 CIN@CLE 12.3% 7.1% DST
Buffalo Bills 3,700 4,500 NYJ@BUF 9.8% 15.1% DST

Verdict: Neutral – I am leaving this sentence here for the rest of the season: Choosing which defense to play in DFS is similar to Chaos Theory; defensive touchdowns are very random, and any defense can be in the winning lineup on any given slate. Don’t overthink this one; play every defense equally based on what fits in your lineup.

Categorized as NFL

By James Smizek

James is a Daily Fantasy Sports vet dating all the way back to his days of writing content on for contest tickets. James specializes in College Football - qualifying for the CFB World Championship in 2018, though you can find his content for NFL, NBA, MLB, Tennis, and NASCAR on FantasyCruncher. James also picked up some new tricks during the Covid/sports shutdown, carving out a niche in League of Legends, Rocket League, and Call of Duty eSports. A winner of multiple large field GPP's, James hopes his knowledge can help you take down the next one. James currently resides in Wisconsin and is a huge Wisconsin sports fan. If you have any questions you can reach out to him @iKezims on Twitter.