The College Football National Championship Rundown – January 10, 2022 (1/10/22)

The College Football National Championship Rundown – January 10, 2022 (1/10/22)

Georgia (-2/52) vs. Alabama

On December 4th in the SEC Championship game, we were treated to the matchup we all really wanted to see in Georgia/Alabama. Alabama’s offense was clicking in this one with Bryce Young leading the passing game, going for 421 yards passing and three touchdowns. Jameson Williams ended this one as the leading receiver with seven receptions for 184 yards and two touchdowns, but a lot of damage came after the loss of John Metchie – an injury that would in fact end his season as a whole. Brian Robinson didn’t find a ton of running room against Georgia’s top front line – averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. The complimentary pieces here were stretched pretty wide, with Slade Bolden hauling in five receptions, but no one else cracking two.

On the Georgia side for this game, the defense was tested just a little too much and the offense was not able to keep pace. That isn’t saying that Stetson Bennett didn’t have a great game, he still managed 340 yards and three touchdowns but sprinkled in two interceptions as well. With the depth of the Georgia running game, we also never really had anything established, as James Cook led the backfield in carries. I think all season we were trained to believe Zamir White was the top running back here, but over the last few games James Cook is the one I would rather lay my chips on. They are going to alternate volume, but Cook offers the pass-catching upside. The passing game however is going to remain a bit frustrating outside of Brock Bowers. Back in the SEC Championship game, Bowers had ten catches for 139 yards and a touchdown. Ten other wideouts caught at least one pass in that game with seven catching at least two, but only one (Bowers) catching more than four. We have to remember, Georgia is a team that attempted under 30 passes total in the fourth quarter of games during the regular season. Mostly because they simply did not have to.

Moving forward to each team’s College Football Playoff games, both handled business quite easily with Georgia beating Michigan 34-11 and Alabama defeating Cinci 27-6. Stetson Bennett completed 21-of-31 for 310 yards and three touchdowns, with nine different receivers catching a pass and none having more than five. The five was once again Brock Bowers, who is the one guy we have grown to trust in this passing game. Zamir White led the backfield here with 12 carries, averaging 4.5 yards per. James Cook however led the passing game in yards with four catches for 112 yards and a touchdown. Alabama leaned heavily on the run game in their win over Cinci, with Brian Robinson carries 25 times for 198 yards and Trey Sanders 15 times for 73 yards. Jameson Williams led the passing attack in receptions and targets but was outgained by Ja’Corey Brooks who had four catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. It should be noted that Jameson Williams did temporarily leave this game with an injury, though did return quickly.

So, when we break this down to the rematch, where does the value lie in Showdown and Single Game formats? Starting at the top, it is pretty easy to decipher the top five priced plays on the slate. These are QB1, WR1, RB1. While Brock Bowers is technically TE1, I am going to lump him into calling him a wideout. Bryce Young and Jameson Williams are the two most expensive on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which comes as little surprise as they are a high volume stack option that combined for over 80 fantasy points combined in their last game against Georgia. The worry here is now without Metchie, Georgia can really focus a defensive scheme to double Williams. This argument kind of comes down to name recognition, as Williams is a proven receiver with over 1,500 yards receiving on the year, but it is Alabama – every wideout is a five-star recruit, and Ja’Corey Brooks (the next big name from Alabama), filled in nicely with 16.6 fantasy points. Slade Bolden is another name who has had some hit or miss production but has the talent out of the slot to play a big factor. Cameron Latu is an oft forgot about piece to the offense, but with 21 receptions and seven touchdowns, we find a guy who has a 33% touchdown per reception share. Alabama will like always attempt to establish the run, but the Georgia front is not one who has given up chunk yardage this year. Georgia is allowing just 82 yards on the ground per game in total. I think the run game is a contrarian approach here, but the passing game is what will be needed to win the game for Alabama.

On the Georgia side, we are kind of presented with a slew of cheap options and one of which is likely going to be the dart to win it for someone. What I mean by that is outside of Brock Bowers’ 52 receptions on the season, Ladd McConkey is the next highest at 30, though seven other receivers have recorded at least one catch over the last two games. We can also add in that George Pickens is once again active and while not actively on the depth chart, has seen play in the last two games and had 49 receptions last season. From a pricing standpoint, Brock Bowers is still my favorite play here and also one of my favorite CPTN/MVP options as he holds a massive edge in terms of yards, receptions, targets, and touchdowns in this offense. The running game on the ground should run solely through Zamir White and James Cook. Each have alternated a bit this year on who gets the volume, though White has the 147-to-107 edge in attempts. That being said, Cook has the 25-to-9 edge in receptions and has found the end zone one more time than White on the year. Cook is considerably higher priced on DraftKings ($8,200 vs. $5,400) but on FanDuel only $1,000 separates the two. Receptions are more valuable on DraftKings with the full point, but I personally am still willing to pay the excess to roster Cook over White from a simple ceiling standpoint. Zamir White has only had a two-touchdown game twice this year, and none since week six. Much like what I said with Alabama, the passing game is likely to be the biggest factor here as the Alabama rush defense is actually a hair better than Georgia’s on the season. From just comparing total numbers, James Cook ends up as the third-best receiver on this team while also carrying the ball around eight times per game.

In closing, each kicker is in play as a FLEX option, which both average over nine fantasy points per contest. Podlesny has attempted two more field goal attempts on the year, while Reichard has attempted a handful of more extra points. Rostering a kicker in Showdown usually comes down to how you think the pace of play and game script goes. Neither kicker was in the optimal lineup from the first time these two met, though Reichard was in a handful of top-50 lineups and outscored Podlesny 2:1. Ultimately predicting kickers is a bit of a crapshoot as too many random variables go into projecting field goal attempts. Ultimately here, I want to focus on the passing game from each side. Bryce Young, Jameson Williams, and Brock Bowers are all three guys who can break the slate at CPTN. I will be mixing and matching those with players from my Cheat Sheet below.

DraftKings Cheat Sheet

$ TierCPTNQBRBWRK
High
Bryce Young
(15.9k / 43.995)
Bryce Young
(10.6k / 29.33)
Brian Robinson Jr.
(9.8k / 17.58)
Jameson Williams
(10.2k / 23.57)
Will Reichard
(4.6k / 6.72)
Jameson Williams
(15.3k / 35.355)
James Cook
(8.2k / 12.59)
Brock Bowers
(9.2k / 22.54)
Medium
Brock Bowers
(13.8k / 33.810)
Stetson Bennett
(10k / 24.15)
Zamir White
(5.4k / 6.96)
Ja'Corey Brooks
(6.4k / 12.30)
Jack Podlesny
(4.4k / 6.48)
James Cook
(12.3k / 18.885)
Slade Bolden
(5.8k / 11.28)
Ladd McConkey
(5k / 9.72)
Low
Ja'Corey Brooks
(9.6k / 18.450)
Kenny McIntosh
(3.6k / 4.62)
Cameron Latu
(2.8k / 3.12)

FanDuel Cheat Sheet

$ TierMVPQBRBWRTE
High
Bryce Young
(17k / 43.995)
Bryce Young
(17k / 29.33)
Brian Robinson Jr.
(12k / 16.58)
Jameson Williams
(14.5k / 21.57)
Brock Bowers
(12.5k / 20.54)
Jameson Williams
(14.5k / 32.355)
Medium
Brock Bowers
(12.5k / 30.810)
Stetson Bennett
(14k / 24.15)
James Cook
(11k / 10.50)
Ladd McConkey
(8.5k / 8.10)
Ja'Corey Brooks
(8k / 10.25)
Low
Kenny McIntosh
(7k / 4.12)
Slade Bolden
(7.5k / 9.40)
Cameron Latu
(7k / 2.52)

About James Smizek

James is a Daily Fantasy Sports vet dating all the way back to his days of writing content on DraftStreet.com for contest tickets. James specializes in College Football - qualifying for the CFB World Championship in 2018, though you can find his content for NFL, NBA, MLB, Tennis, and NASCAR on FantasyCruncher. James also picked up some new tricks during the Covid/sports shutdown, carving out a niche in League of Legends, Rocket League, and Call of Duty eSports. A winner of multiple large field GPP's, James hopes his knowledge can help you take down the next one. James currently resides in Wisconsin and is a huge Wisconsin sports fan. If you have any questions you can reach out to him @iKezims on Twitter.

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