The College Football Rundown – DraftKings & Fanduel CFB DFS – December 4, 2021

The College Football Rundown – DraftKings & Fanduel CFB DFS – Championship Saturday – December 4, 2021

Welcome back, friends. While we likely will have some form of write-ups during Bowl Season, this marks the last consistent Saturday version of the College Football Rundown. While this article is free, I hope it helped you find value during the season. A quick thanks to all readers of this article and an extra thanks to all FantasyCruncher subscribers who take advantage of our projections and tools provided. We will continue to support every and all slates through Bowl Season. That being said, lets get into my favorite plays for this Championship Saturday slate.

Quarterback

Kenny Pickett & Sam Hartman – DK: $9,700 & $9,500 | FD: $11,000 & $11,500

I don’t like doing dual players from the same game, but this really is a pick your poison kind of spot in my opinion. Both offenses run through their quarterback and both are averaging over 31 fantasy points per contest on the year. Neither team’s passing defense is all that strong and this should be a back and forth battle between two highly rated quarterbacks. Pickett is slightly more expensive on DraftKings, while Hartman is more expensive on FanDuel. Hartman has an edge on the rushing upside, as he has 10 total on the year compared to Pickett’s four. Pickett however has six more passing touchdowns with 300+ more yards to his name. In a bubble for one game, I can’t separate these guys – each has elite weapons at their disposal and this game has a small three-point spread in Pitts favor. Pickett has missed a practice this week due to illness, but it has been said to be a non-issue. I will likely be splitting exposure between these two quarterbacks, with a very small edge to Hartman based solely around his knack of finding the end zone with his legs and a less established run game for Wake Forest.

Rocky Lombardi – DK: $7,500 | FD: $9,700

It is important to note that Rocky Lombardi still carries a questionable tag and we haven’t got great updates on his status, but it felt like he was held out last week more as a precaution than anything serious so I am willing to place my bets that he will play in the MAC Championship game. There are really only two games on this slate that project as shootouts as I said above, with Pitt/Wake being one, and Kent State/Northern Illinois being the other. In fact, this game has the highest total of the week at 74.5 and NIU at 35.75 for their team total. These two teams met roughly three weeks ago, with Kent State winning 52-47. In that game, Lombardi passed for 532 yards and three touchdowns. While it is unreasonable to ever predict a repeat performance when 500+ yards are in play, it is encouraging that this will be a defense that he already picked apart once. Cole Tucker appears to be trending in the right direction (more on that shortly) and the return of Lombardi boosts the upside of Trayvon Rudolph (again, we will talk about him). We are getting Lombardi at a suppressed price due to him missing last week and a few games of him just not needing to throw the ball. This, however, will not be a game that NIU can just focus the run, as Kent State’s offense is going to score. This is more a DraftKings play for me than FanDuel, but will have exposure on both. Again though, keep an eye on his status incase there is more to his injury than the school is letting on.

Spencer Sanders, OKST – DK: $7,200 | FD: $8,400

Sanders is rarely a “break the slate” kind of guy, but he is a consistent source of a floor of fantasy production which is sometimes just fine with us. Over Sanders’ last two games though he has kicked an extra gear, averaging around 25 fantasy points per contest. The completion percentage for Sanders at 60% has been disappointing from your quarterback, but he did run 16 times last week against Oklahoma for 93 yards and a touchdown. Sanders also found the end zone against Texas Tech the week prior and has 48 or more rushing yards in four of his last five games. Now, this game does carry the second-lowest total on the slate only next to Iowa/Michigan, but Baylor has been a way more stout defense against the run as opposed to the pass. The margain is slim, Baylor is still an elite defense in general, but Sanders’ legs are really what we are targeting here. Oklahoma State with a win finds themselves very near a CFB Playoff berth and with a five-point spread in their favor, I like this price – more so on FanDuel – for the value Sanders can provide us. Again, we can’t expect a 40 point slate-breaking performance here, but Sanders has had 23 or more fantasy points in four of his last six starts. When these two teams met back in week five, Sanders only had 182 yards passing but ran 12 times for 76 yards. If we can tack on a rushing touchdown, this play will pay for itself.

Jordon Brookshire, SDSU – DK: $5,900 | FD: $6,900

I contemplated adding this play or not, but if you are trying to punt quarterback or just get an interesting superflex option, Brookshire is at worst an intriguing tournament dart for us. This will be Brookshire’s first start since October as Lucas Johnson has had this spot locked down, but Brookshire is expected to start against Utah State with Johnson battling injury. The Aztecs in general are going to control the game on the ground, but Brookshire has legs himself and had 46 yards rushing and a touchdown in relief last week in a win over Boise State. In Brookshire’s other start on the year, a win over New Mexico State, Brookshire ran for 45 yards and two touchdowns. Brookshire himself is listed more as a pro-style quarterback, but his rushing numbers at least show us he is comfortable getting out of the pocket. It is important to remember that Brookshire was San Diego State’s starting quarterback to start the year, but was injured, and then lost the job to Lucas Johnson. Again, this should not be your main quarterback play, but makes for a great superflex option. Utah State’s offense is likely going to keep the pressure on, though the SDSU defense is one of the top in the country.

Running back

Jerome Ford, CINCY – DK: $7,100 | FD: $9,400

Ultimately I just do not understand this DraftKings price here. Jerome Ford missed one game back in week 11, but has played a full snap count his last two games, including exactly 20 carries in each game. Sure, Ford has not eclipsed 100 yards in either game, but he has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last seven games and every game on the season except for one. The matchup here for Ford is tough, I will admit that, as Houston has a top-25 rushing defense in the nation, but I also firmly believe there are no other C-USA running backs at the pedigree of Alabama transfer Jerome Ford. Ford has rushed for over 1,000 yards on the year and has 18 touchdowns. Ford has also been priced at $8,300 or higher in each of his last six games, so this price drop is quite significant. With Cinci as a 10-point favorite here and a 31.50 team total, it’s a safe bet for Ford to find the end zone at least once.

Marquez Cooper, KENT – DK: $6,500 | FD: $8,800

We’ve already touched on the high total of this game and the last time these two teams met we had a 52-47 game. Cooper has 21 or more carries in each of his last four games, with 83 yards being his lowest total and 126 or more in the other three. Cooper also has at least one touchdown in each of his last five games and found the end zone twice the last time he faced NIU – he also had 173 yards rushing. While Cooper is only averaging 17.4 fantasy points on the year, he is averaging over 25 over his last four games. I think Cooper is a very slept-on running back who quietly ran for over 1,000 yards this year. Given the matchup and the price, Cooper is one of the guys who can absolutely break this slate wide open. Northern Illinois rush defense is allowing 217 yards a game which is one of the worst marks in the nation.

Blake Corum, MICH – DK: $4,300 | FD: $7,500

Corum missed two weeks with a foot injury, but returned last week against Ohio State and took six carries for 87 yards. Corum wasn’t needed much with Hassan Haskins absolutely dominating on the ground with 28 carries for 169 yards and five touchdowns. Corum, in a massive spot and big game, was going to be eased back into action and it is not surprising to see Michigan stick with Haskins to secure the victory against Ohio State. That doesn’t diminish the season Corum has had though, with 865 yards and 11 touchdowns. Corum also has 20 receptions for 137 yards. While I still expect Michigan to lean on Haskins, I also do not think Michigan has a difficult time against Iowa who has not looked that great recently. Haskins has been priced way up, while Corum is actually even cheaper than he was last week. I expect the workload to even out a little bit more, though Haskins will still likely keep the “lead” role. But with the role Corum has played this year, he is not going to be ignored here and should see red zone opprotunity. This price is just too low for the impact he can potentially make, though the risk of Haskins just dominating the ball does exist still.

Camerun Peoples, APPST – DK: $4,000 | FD: $6,900

This is another tough situation to shake out but Peoples and Nate Noel are the 1-2 in the App State rushing attack. Peoples starting the year as the 1A option, though Noel has taken those reigns a little bit as Noel ended with over 1,000 yards, while Peoples had just 764. While Noel has the yardage advantage, Peoples has 13 touchdowns compared to just four from Noel. Over the last three games though, the volume for each has been pretty low, with Noel with just 31 carries and Peoples with 40. That being said, App State has also outscored their opponents by a 103-17 margin – no opponent has scored more than seven points in the last three games against this defense. This has led to guys like Anderson Castle and Daetrich Harrington seeing some increased work. With only a combined 6.5 fantasy points over Peoples last two games, I think it worries a few people, but ultimately it is a product of the game scripts. App State is only a three-point favorite against ULL and this sets up as a game that allows the running back room to get more volume. The issue is how will the coaching staff spread the volume? I am a firm believer that big players step up in big games and Peoples has been that guy for most of the year – the touchdown numbers do not lie. The $4,000 price tag on DraftKings is wild to me and one I will be eating up heavily this weekend.

Wide receiver

Jordan Addison, PITT – DK: $9,300 | FD: $10,000

It is not going to be easy to work in Addison at this price, but if you can you just simply have to do it. Addison ended the regular season as the touchdown leader in college football with 18. Addison has 11 or more targets in each of his last five games and 32 over his last two. Over Addison’s last two games he has a total of 25 receptions for 283 yards and six touchdowns. With a shootout with Wake Forest on tap, Addison will once again lead this prolific passing attack. There isn’t a ton to put here that can’t just be highlighted by stats.

Tay Martin, OKST – DK: $7,300 | FD: $8,200 

Martin is the target leader in the Oklahoma State offense with a 28% target share and 25 targets over his last two games. Of those 25 targets, only 14 have resulted in receptions, but for 219 yards and a touchdown. Martin has 23.9 fantasy points or more in his last two games and has been a consistent weapon in this passing game. I have already talked about the struggles of Sanders at times with completion percentage, but we are still getting the volume of targets and with Baylor having an elite rushing defense, the pass could be leaned on more here. I really enjoy this play on FanDuel at savings as either part of a stack or a one-off.

John Metchie, BAMA – DK: $7,200 | FD: $7,800 

Just peep that FanDuel price and it tells you all you need to know about why Metchie is here. Sure, Georgie is the obvious favorite here and Alabama has just a 21-point team total, but Metchie still has a 28.2% target share in this offense and saw 23 targets last week. Of course, this had to do with overtime and the loss of Jameson Williams to a targeting call, but Metchie has double-digit targets in four of his last five games, with the game he didn’t being an outlier against New Mexico State. Metchie has over 320 yards receiving the last two games and with running back Brian Robinson questionable, Bama will need to lean on the pass against this elite Georgia defense. Yardage will be harder to come by here and I don’t expect a ton of points in this one, but the FanDuel price here makes him a high upside one-off. I still think Metchie is also in play on DraftKings based around volume alone as he can rack up receptions on swing routes and screens that Bama likes to run – especially if they struggle getting the ball downfield against Georgia’s #1 ranked defense.

Trayvon Rudolph & Cole Tucker, NIU – DK: $6,900 & $5,000 | FD: $8,700 & $6,800

If we are looking to target Rocky Lombardi and the NIU passing game, it only makes sense to stack here, especially with a duo that had massive games against Kent State the last time they met. Rudolph back in week 10 against Kent State caught 14 of 23 targets, for 309 yards and three touchdowns. Now, it goes without saying, this is an outlier performance. But target share doesn’t lie as Rudolph was constantly able to beat the Kent State secondary on big plays. This will obviously be a big point of game-planning for Kent State this weekend so we can probably expect a little extra attention to be shifted Rudolph’s way, but with fellow receiver Tyrice Richie still out, the volume should shift to Rudolph and Cole Tucker. Tucker missed five weeks in the middle of the season before returning in week 10 against Kent State. While Tucker missed last week with an injury, he is back on the depth chart as a starter for this week so there shouldn’t be any injuries to worry about (though note the MAC injury reporting is very poor). Since his return in three games, Tucker has 33 targets, 21 receptions, 252 yards, and one touchdown. Rudolph carries the ceiling – it is tempting to chase his last performance – but his price isn’t really chasing for us it is actually pretty mellow. Tucker’s value on his price on each site makes him one of my favorite cash plays on the slate.

When it comes to value receivers, it really ends for me at Cole Tucker. I would say that Corey Sutton at $4,900 also makes some sense, as does Brandon Bowling, Jared Wayne, and Nykeim Johnson. None of these are absolute must plays for me though this week and there is no real “stand out” value at wide receiver. You can reference the cheat sheet link below to see all cheaper wide outs in my player pool this week.

Click here for Saturday’s Cheat Sheets for both DraftKings and FanDuel

My projections are now live on FantasyCruncher and will be available for every slate all season for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Though this content is free I encourage you to take your game to the next level by considering a subscription to FC Premium. If you are a lower-stakes player, FC Lite gets you all the tools that Premium does, just with a lower lineup crunch cap. I will post the link below for anyone interested. You can also reach out to me on Twitter @iKezims

https://www.fantasycruncher.com/premium-signup/CFB/monthly

About James Smizek

James is a Daily Fantasy Sports Veteran dating all the way back to his days of writing content on DraftStreet.com for contest tickets. James specializes in College Football - qualifying for the CFB World Championship in 2018, though you can find his content for NFL, NBA, MLB, and NASCAR on FantasyCruncher. James also picked up some new tricks during the Covid/sports shutdown, carving out a niche in League of Legends, Rocket League, and Call of Duty eSports. A winner of multiple large field GPP's, James hopes his knowledge can help you take down the next one. James currently resides in Wisconsin and is a huge Wisconsin sports fan. If you have any questions you can reach out to him @iKezims on Twitter.

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