The College Football Rundown – DraftKings & Fanduel CFB DFS – November 27, 2021

The College Football Rundown – DraftKings & Fanduel CFB DFS – November 27, 2021

Welcome back everyone – it is a joy and honor to be back for the 2021 College Football season. If you are reading this, you likely can note that it is completely free. All written content on FantasyCruncher is free – the only time you will be charged is if you want access to the optimizer and access to my projections. In that case, you can follow this link to sign up – with weekly/monthly/annual options across three different tiers that should be able to fit every level of DFS player. I will be providing written content for any slate of four games or more, though projections and optimizer access will be available for all normal and showdown slates.

Quarterback

Brennan Armstrong, UV – DK: $9,800 | FD: $10,700

If you are looking to spend up at quarterback this week you get the option between CJ Stroud, Armstrong, and Sam Hartman. It was a toss up for me between Stroud and Armstrong as I believe both are great tournament guys this week as I doubt either carry sky-high ownership. Ohio State carries a 0.50 higher team total over Virginia, but I do like the matchup for Armstrong a little more than Stroud. That being said, the Michigan matchup could scare enough ownership away from Stroud and in reality, I think the Ohio State offense in their current form and with all weapons is matchup proof. But I think this game will also test that theory to the fullest. That being said, Armstrong returned from injury last week and threw for 487 yards and three touchdowns against Pitt and was only really held back by his -27 yards rushing. Armstrong is now third in the nation for passing yards at 4,044 and he has missed a week with injury. Virginia Tech’s pass defense is above average, but I also argue that they haven’t face a quarterback of Armstrong’s pedigree. I will take Virginia at home here in what should be another showcase game for Armstrong. As a note – Virginia Tech may have a change at quarterback this week with Connor Blumrick. He is min price on DraftKings and would provide massive dual-threat upside at a cheap price. We will need to play this by ear though.

Jordan Travis, FSU – DK: $6,900 | FD: $9,000

In Travis’ last two starts against Miami and Boston College, he has averaged around 27 fantasy points per game and really over his last six games the only one he struggled in was against Clemson when he only managed 11.44 fantasy points. Travis is a true dual-threat option, as he passed for three passing touchdowns last weekend but ran for two the week before. While Florida State is 5-6 on the season, they have played a ton of close games and staying in ball games is only going to elevate the potential from our quarterback position. It is rivalry week, so we get Florida/Florida State, but the Gators just dropped an overtime game to Missouri and allowed Samford to put up 52 and South Carolina 40 in the two weeks prior. If you need a refresher, the Gamecock offense is bad – I guess I don’t know enough about Samford but I can confidently say Florida shouldn’t be allowing 52 points to them. While Florida is three-point favorite, mostly strictly stemming from the home advantage, I like Florida State as an upset pick this weekend. As a note, keep an eye on who starts for Florida as both Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson’s prices are far too low this week as well.

Aidan O’Connell, PUR – DK: $6,500 | FD: $9,000

This play is expensive on FanDuel, but DraftKings just refuses to move O’Connell up a pricing tier even though he has 31 or more fantasy points now in three straight games. As you likely know already (because he has been in this article now for the fourth straight week), O’Connell passed for 536 against Michigan State, 390 against Ohio State, and 423 last week against Northwestern. The Northwestern game was actually the one I was the weariest with as I was worried about the pace of the game, but O’Connell still managed three touchdowns and 420 plus yards in a 32-14 victory. This week it is a home matchup for the Boilermakers against Indiana, whose defense is one of the poorer in the Big Ten in terms of points allowed at 33.1 per game.

Running back

Brian Robinson Jr., BAMA – DK: $8,600 | FD: $10,000

Robinson carried the ball 27 times last week against Arkansas but was unable to find the endzone which actually led to a $400 dollar price decrease for us on DraftKings. Robinson has been an absolute workhorse for the Crimson Tide this year and sees a huge usage rate inside of the red zone. Unfortunately for fantasy owners last week, Alabama did a ton of damage with big plays outside the red zone. The Auburn rush defense has been poor in the last two weeks, allowing roughly a six-yard per carry average – and that was to South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M. Alabama still needs to lock in their spot in the CFB playoff, and as 20-point favorites, the game script favors the rushing attack here.

Pat Garwo, BC – DK: $6,100 | FD: $7,700

As we all move on from last week’s chalk week of Phil Jurkovec’s minimum price, we return to the reality that no matter what, Boston College is a run-first team. Over the last three games, Garwo has a combined 78 total carries with no fewer than 24 in any of those games. The only thing really holding Garwo back recently is the lack of finding the end zone, as he only has two rushing touchdowns over his last five games. While Wake Forest will push the pace with their passing game, Boston College will counter it with their rushing attack. Boston College is a slight 5-point underdog here, but they do carry the home matchup. The price on both sites is very affordable here and with Boston College still slated for near 30 team points, Garwo feels like a safe volume bet.

Chase Brown, ILL – DK: $5,800 | FD: $6,800

It is pretty rare that we get Illinois as a favorite, but they open here as a 6-point favorite over Northwestern. When Illinois has won recently, the thing that goes hand in hand is a massive day on the ground (at least volume-wise) from Chase Brown. Back in week 10 against Minnesota, Brown had 32 carries for 147 yards. Week 8 against Penn State it was 33 carries for 233 yards. Week 5 against Charlotte, 26 carries for 257 yards. Northwestern is the worst rushing defense in the Big Ten and also one of the worst in the nation, allowing almost 230 yards per game on the ground. Brown’s price marks him as one of my favorite plays at price on this slate.

Wide receiver

General note here before I dive in, the top of the wide receiver list this week is just jam-packed with both Alabama studs, all Ohio State studs, Wake Forest, Virginia, and then guys like David Bell and Jahan Dotson. They just all can’t make the write-up (though you can find them on the cheat sheet). I firmly believe all of them are in play in some capacity and the needle hovering between their upside, usage, matchup, etc is teetering more to the side of guessing/luck than actual analysis. There just is not a lot to separate these guys enough to say play X over Y. Factoring in the prices, I will likely be lighter on Jameson Williams, Jaquarii Roberson, and Dontayvion Wicks due to the 8k+ price tags. That being said, the higher price tags also lower the ownership on them. When it comes to Ohio State, I will likely focus Olave and Wilson over Smith-Njigba, all three have a similar 21% target share in the offense.

Keytaon Thompson, UV – DK: $7,200 | FD: $8,500

While Dontayvion Wicks has been the big downfield threat for Virginia, we can get Thompson $1,100 cheaper on DraftKings and get a guy who has double-digit targets in six of his last seven games and nine or more receptions in his last four. Thompson, a converted quarterback, is really used everywhere on the field, averaging around 8.6 yards per target and while his target share is just 20.6%, that is a large 20% of a very pass-heavy offense. Target numbers do not lie as Thompson has 102 targets on the season that have resonated into 70 receptions and 882 yards. Thompson only has two receiving touchdowns on the year which is why we can still get him at this price, but in what should remain a pass-heavy game plan, this price is very nice for us.

Bo Melton, RU – DK: $5,100 | FD: $6,700 

I am not sure why I allow myself (and potentially you as well) the pain of rostering Bo Melton when I can, but on paper everything lines up to him being in a good spot. Nothing is mindblowing looking at Melton’s last five games, but he does have doublt-digit fantasy points in all but two games this season. Melton is still averaging 8.8 targets per game and has a 27% target share in the Rutgers offense. This includes ten or more targets in three of his last four contests. The matchup this week is the best we can get against Maryland and their low-ranked passing defense. Maryland is also allowing over 415 yards and 31 points per game. Rutgers is slated for around four touchdowns here so someone has to score. Melton’s volume should remain the same, it now just falls to if he can break one downfield. I will once again buy into this play and price.

Parker Washington, PSU – DK: $4,100 | FD: $6,800

Check the schedule, find who plays Michigan State, find the best value, load up. This strategy has been pretty bulletproof the last few weeks as the Michigan State pass defense is one of the very worst in the entire nation, allowing 311 yards passing per game. So we have a few choices here, we can pay up for Jahan Dotson who has slate-breaking potential, or we can get an insane value on Parker Washington at $4,100 on DraftKings. This price is confusing as Washington was $5,500 just three weeks ago and in the two games played since then he has 13.2 and 19.2 fantasy point performances, so not sure why the price didn’t move at all here. But because of it, this is likely a chalky option and borderline free square for cash games. Washington has seven or more targets in four of his last five games and has 72 yards receiving or more in three of his last four.

Chris Autman-Bell, MIN – DK: $4,200 | FD: $6,000

While I usually sort these by DraftKings price, I wanted to put Autman-Bell last to drive home the fact that he was my least prioritized play on this slate. That being said, CAB (I’m calling him that now) has nine catches and 152 yards with three touchdowns over his last two games. This week it is the Axe week for Wisconsin and Minnesota and one thing I am confident in is if Minnesota wants to pull the upset, it will not be done by running the ball. Nebraska was able to pass for 351 yards against Wisconsin last week and while that is a lot, it didn’t move the needle much for hurting Wisconsin’s defensive ranks as they rank second in the nation in total yards per game and first in the nation for rush defense. If Minnesota wants to have a chance they will need to throw. Autman-Bell has 19 targets over the last two games and a 24% target share in the offense. There is a ton of risk here, but if someone succeeds, CAB is my pick for it and this price makes it a great tournament shot.

Click here for Saturday’s Cheat Sheets for both DraftKings and FanDuel

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About James Smizek

James is a Daily Fantasy Sports Veteran dating all the way back to his days of writing content on DraftStreet.com for contest tickets. James specializes in College Football - qualifying for the CFB World Championship in 2018, though you can find his content for NFL, NBA, MLB, and NASCAR on FantasyCruncher. James also picked up some new tricks during the Covid/sports shutdown, carving out a niche in League of Legends, Rocket League, and Call of Duty eSports. A winner of multiple large field GPP's, James hopes his knowledge can help you take down the next one. James currently resides in Wisconsin and is a huge Wisconsin sports fan. If you have any questions you can reach out to him @iKezims on Twitter.

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