FantasyCruncher NFL Elo Ratings – Week 11 (11/21/21)

NFL DFS: FantasyCruncher NFL Elo Ratings – Week 11 (11/21/21)


The Elo rating system is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games, originating with the game of chess and modified to fit numerous game types. One unique way to apply the Elo rating system in Daily Fantasy Sports is to compare player performance against the Draftkings pricing algorithm in a zero-sum fashion. In tournaments and cash games, establishing an expected points output from each player in your lineup is standard practice nowadays, and applying the Elo rating system is pretty simple with that expectation established. The player either met your expectation or did not live up to the desired output. The Elo rating calculation is simple, the players gain and lose ratings based on meeting expectations or not. The margin in which they exceed or fail is also an essential factor. If a player exceeds expectations by 20 points, it impacts the rating, and the opposite is true. Each week I’ll be simulating the Draftkings Classic Main Slate 1000 times and sharing the results here with you.


Elo Ratings-

What are they?

To be competitive in top-heavy NFL DFS tournaments requires great performances from every player in your lineup. The Elo ratings help you identify players who have the best chance to exceed expectations relative to salary and position. For each position, the target fantasy point expectation is derived by average points/ 1k, plus a constant. For example: QB points expectation would be (salary/1k)*3 + 11.2

How does it work?
Each player starts with an equal rating of 1,500. As the simulation progresses, the players gain or lose rating points based on how many fantasy points they score at each iteration.  If a player scored 24 fantasy points and his target score was 20, his Elo rating will increase based on meeting the target and by the margin of victory +4. That rating follows the player until all 1,000 iterations of the sim are completed. Below are the final Elo Ratings after the simulation has been completed.
Legend:
Position- The Players DraftKings Position
Salary- The Players DraftKings Salary ( Main Slate )
FC ELO- Fantasy Cruncher Elo Rating
Points Expectation- Target score based on salary and position ( GPP )

Name Team Position Salary FC ELO Points Expectation
Mark Ingram II NO RB 5400 1360.191 23.24049
AJ Dillon GB RB 6200 1340.397 24.90575
Darren Waller LV TE 6100 1326.507 25.71421
Jaylen Waddle MIA WR 5600 1319.989 25.53502
Dalvin Cook MIN RB 8200 1306.271 29.06889
Tyreek Hill KC WR 8200 1304.234 31.81914
James Conner ARI RB 6100 1302.389 24.69759
Jonathan Taylor IND RB 8300 1297.099 29.27705
Alex Collins SEA RB 5000 1295.401 22.40786
Dalton Schultz DAL TE 4600 1292.435 22.34186
Jeff Wilson Jr. SF RB 5100 1287.743 22.61602
Nick Chubb CLE RB 7800 1286.219 28.23626
Stefon Diggs BUF WR 7900 1283.375 31.09405
Cole Beasley BUF WR 4800 1282.583 23.60145
Tyler Lockett SEA WR 6000 1282.342 26.50181
Deebo Samuel SF WR 7800 1264.324 30.85235
Christian McCaffrey CAR RB 8900 1243.816 30.52599
Travis Kelce KC TE 7100 1239.963 27.96244
Michael Carter NYJ RB 5800 1235.95 24.07312
DK Metcalf SEA WR 6800 1233.057 28.43538
Cam Newton CAR QB 5100 1232.772 28.337
David Montgomery CHI RB 5500 1230.989 23.44864
Michael Pittman Jr. IND WR 6100 1229.668 26.7435
Corey Davis NYJ WR 5000 1227.669 24.08484
Mike Gesicki MIA TE 5200 1227.458 23.6908
Adam Thielen MIN WR 6600 1226.809 27.95199
A.J. Green ARI WR 4600 1220.425 23.11805
Adrian Peterson TEN RB 4800 1220.175 21.99154
Davante Adams GB WR 8400 1218.782 32.30253
Tua Tagovailoa MIA QB 5500 1213.869 29.61833
Dallas Goedert PHI TE 4400 1212.219 21.89222
George Kittle SF TE 6300 1208.125 26.16385
Brandin Cooks HOU WR 6000 1207.693 26.50181
Tee Higgins CIN WR 5400 1207.139 25.05163
Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB 7700 1203.654 28.0281
Jarvis Landry CLE WR 5100 1202.023 24.32654
Josh Allen BUF QB 8100 1201.014 37.947
Darrel Williams KC RB 5400 1198.763 23.24049
Michael Gallup DAL WR 4200 1197.328 22.15126
Hunter Renfrow LV WR 5800 1197.067 26.01841
Ja’Marr Chase CIN WR 7200 1192.394 29.40217
D’Onta Foreman TEN RB 4900 1190.171 22.1997
Miles Sanders PHI RB 5000 1189.81 22.40786
Myles Gaskin MIA RB 5700 1189.703 23.86496
Marvin Jones JAX WR 5200 1189.095 24.56823
Josh Jacobs LV RB 6000 1188.589 24.48943
Cole Kmet CHI TE 3400 1183.711 19.64399
Joe Mixon CIN RB 7600 1183.082 27.81995
Darnell Mooney CHI WR 5200 1175.315 24.56823
D.J. Moore CAR WR 5900 1175.096 26.26011
A.J. Brown TEN WR 7700 1169.421 30.61065
D’Andre Swift DET RB 7000 1167.402 26.571
CeeDee Lamb DAL WR 7600 1166.707 30.36896
Rondale Moore ARI WR 4200 1165.726 22.15126
Patrick Mahomes KC QB 7600 1160.779 36.34533
Quez Watkins PHI WR 3700 1148.961 20.94278
Colt McCoy ARI QB 4900 1145.918 27.69633
Christian Kirk ARI WR 5700 1142.012 25.77672
Dan Arnold JAX TE 4100 1138.799 21.21775
Derek Carr LV QB 5900 1137.843 30.89967
Mark Andrews BAL TE 6000 1134.38 25.48939
James Robinson JAX RB 6400 1131.738 25.32206
Laviska Shenault Jr. JAX WR 4100 1131.343 21.90957
Justin Jefferson MIN WR 8100 1126.72 31.57744
Jimmy Garoppolo SF QB 5600 1126.119 29.93867
Russell Wilson SEA QB 6500 1118.695 32.82167
Sammy Watkins BAL WR 4000 1118.034 21.66787
T.Y. Hilton IND WR 4300 1116.303 22.39296
Terry McLaurin WAS WR 7000 1115.465 28.91877
Joe Flacco NYJ QB 4600 1114 26.73533
Austin Hooper CLE TE 3200 1112.728 19.19434
Mo Alie-Cox IND TE 2700 1111.124 18.07022
Carson Wentz IND QB 5500 1109.886 29.61833
Tyler Boyd CIN WR 4800 1104.958 23.60145
J.D. McKissic WAS RB 5000 1104.113 22.40786
Jalen Hurts PHI QB 6800 1103.839 33.78267
DeVonta Smith PHI WR 6400 1100.541 27.46859
Rashod Bateman BAL WR 4500 1099.31 22.87636
Tony Pollard DAL RB 4700 1096.033 21.78339
Antonio Gibson WAS RB 5900 1095.759 24.28127
Jauan Jennings SF WR 3000 1091.895 19.2509
Gerald Everett SEA TE 3100 1091.762 18.96952
Emmanuel Sanders BUF WR 5300 1087.159 24.80993
David Njoku CLE TE 2900 1085.965 18.51987
Cedrick Wilson DAL WR 3200 1082.994 19.7343
Anthony Firkser TEN TE 2500 1080.367 17.62058
Randall Cobb GB WR 4400 1078.947 22.63466
Devin Singletary BUF RB 4600 1077.114 21.57523
Deonte Harris NO WR 4200 1076.366 22.15126
John Bates WAS TE 2500 1073.917 17.62058
Lamar Jackson BAL QB 8000 1072.634 37.62667
Tyler Conklin MIN TE 3900 1066.637 20.7681
Trevor Lawrence JAX QB 5200 1064.462 28.65733
K.J. Osborn MIN WR 3400 1064.307 20.21769
Jamison Crowder NYJ WR 4700 1061.284 23.35975
Taylor Heinicke WAS QB 5300 1056.091 28.97767
Jamaal Williams DET RB 4400 1055.988 21.15892
Dawson Knox BUF TE 4000 1054.398 20.99292
Bryan Edwards LV WR 4100 1052.864 21.90957
Kirk Cousins MIN QB 6100 1049.133 31.54033
Byron Pringle KC WR 3400 1047.65 20.21769
Danny Amendola HOU WR 3100 1046.917 19.4926
Zack Moss BUF RB 5000 1046.846 22.40786
Marquise Goodwin CHI WR 3300 1045.965 19.97599
Zach Pascal IND WR 4000 1044.867 21.66787
Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC RB 5200 1043.931 22.82417
Zach Ertz ARI TE 4800 1043.173 22.79151
Tre’Quan Smith NO WR 4400 1042.616 22.63466
Marcus Johnson TEN WR 3500 1042.483 20.45939
Tyrod Taylor HOU QB 5000 1041.409 28.01667
Jalen Reagor PHI WR 3300 1035.864 19.97599
Mecole Hardman KC WR 4000 1029.051 21.66787
Nico Collins HOU WR 3300 1028.05 19.97599
T.J. Hockenson DET TE 5700 1023.697 24.81492
Baker Mayfield CLE QB 5400 1023.355 29.298
Latavius Murray BAL RB 5300 1020.466 23.03233
Albert Wilson MIA WR 3100 1019.458 19.4926
Ryan Tannehill TEN QB 6700 1018.317 33.46233
DeAndre Carter WAS WR 3300 1017.49 19.97599
Antoine Wesley ARI WR 3000 1014.874 19.2509
Ty Johnson NYJ RB 4600 1013.849 21.57523
Dak Prescott DAL QB 7200 1010.148 35.064
Justin Fields CHI QB 5700 1007.711 30.259
Kalif Raymond DET WR 5000 1006.073 24.08484
D’Ernest Johnson CLE RB 5600 1005.199 23.6568
Durham Smythe MIA TE 2500 1003.008 17.62058
Jamal Agnew JAX WR 4700 1002.43 23.35975
Robby Anderson CAR WR 4600 997.9132 23.11805
C.J. Uzomah CIN TE 3500 993.6666 19.86881
Freddie Swain SEA WR 3000 993.1263 19.2509
Marquez Callaway NO WR 5100 992.2465 24.32654
Rashard Higgins CLE WR 3200 990.3485 19.7343
Joe Burrow CIN QB 6600 989.8295 33.142
Gabriel Davis BUF WR 3900 986.1114 21.42617
Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB WR 3700 985.8234 20.94278
Ryan Griffin NYJ TE 2500 984.6952 17.62058
Zay Jones LV WR 3000 984.2546 19.2509
Adam Trautman NO TE 3300 983.0716 19.41916
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR 4300 982.4257 22.39296
Adam Humphries WAS WR 3200 981.6208 19.7343
Alexander Mattison MIN RB 4700 980.7304 21.78339
Adam Shaheen MIA TE 2500 980.7251 17.62058
DeSean Jackson LV WR 3400 980.028 20.21769
Aaron Rodgers GB QB 7000 974.1913 34.42333
Jack Doyle IND TE 3000 974.0192 18.74469
Devonta Freeman BAL RB 5100 972.8102 22.61602
David Johnson HOU RB 4400 971.4956 21.15892
Nyheim Hines IND RB 4300 970.7042 20.95076
Carlos Hyde JAX RB 4400 969.9725 21.15892
Jordan Akins HOU TE 2700 968.1972 18.07022
Demetric Felton CLE RB 4000 964.7379 20.32629
Kenyan Drake LV RB 5200 960.972 22.82417
Elijah Moore NYJ WR 4900 960.493 23.84314
Devin Duvernay BAL WR 3800 959.3162 21.18448
Trinity Benson DET WR 3000 958.7694 19.2509
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN WR 3300 958.5696 19.97599
Tim Boyle DET QB 4000 951.1426 24.81333
Brandon Aiyuk SF WR 5000 950.27 24.08484
Trevor Siemian NO QB 5300 949.0658 28.97767
Anthony Schwartz CLE WR 3000 948.4981 19.2509
Eno Benjamin ARI RB 4200 941.1797 20.7426
Samaje Perine CIN RB 4500 940.2929 21.36707
Preston Williams MIA WR 3000 939.5187 19.2509
Phillip Lindsay HOU RB 4100 939.2213 20.53444
Rashaad Penny SEA RB 4000 939.2051 20.32629
Mack Hollins MIA WR 3000 938.8869 19.2509
Salvon Ahmed MIA RB 4000 938.8165 20.32629
Travis Homer SEA RB 4500 937.7043 21.36707
Patrick Taylor GB RB 4000 937.3004 20.32629
Chester Rogers TEN WR 3500 936.6749 20.45939
Trey Sermon SF RB 4500 936.568 21.36707
Jordan Howard PHI RB 4800 936.1691 21.99154
Khalil Herbert CHI RB 4800 934.8646 21.99154
Taysom Hill NO QB 4900 928.7701 27.69633

About Dustin Shook

Dustin is an experienced DFS player who has had success across multiple sports and platforms. Dustin is a GPP specialist focusing on game theory and data analytics. When he's not grinding daily fantasy sports contests, Dustin enjoys R programming and hanging out with his son. He can be found on twitter @dshook420

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