The College Football Rundown – DraftKings & Fanduel CFB DFS – November 20, 2021
Welcome back everyone – it is a joy and honor to be back for the 2021 College Football season. If you are reading this, you likely can note that it is completely free. All written content on FantasyCruncher is free – the only time you will be charged is if you want access to the optimizer and access to my projections. In that case, you can follow this link to sign up – with weekly/monthly/annual options across three different tiers that should be able to fit every level of DFS player. I will be providing written content for any slate of four games or more, though projections and optimizer access will be available for all normal and showdown slates.
CJ Stroud, OSU – DK: $9,500 | FD: $11,200
I think the play this week may be to save on the quarterback position because we have a good amount of value options but if you want to spend up here I also can’t blame you with guys like Stroud and Pickett in great matchups. For the sake of the better matchup though, CJ Stroud against a horrible Michigan State secondary tops the list for me this week. The Spartans got a win against Maryland last week, but they still allowed Taulia Tagovailoa to pass for 350 yards. A week prior in a loss to Purdue, Michigan State surrendered 536 yards passing to Aidan O’Connell. No knock to either of those guys (O’Connell is next in this write-up) but they don’t have the arm talent that Stroud does. Regardless if Ohio State fans want to still drag him through the mud for his loss to Oregon or the “few mistakes” he makes, CJ Stroud is still on a trajectory to be one of the best quarterbacks in college football. Last week against Purdue, Stroud completed 81% of his passes for 361 yards and five touchdown passes. With a healthy Garret Wilson and the emergence of Smith-Njigba, there are all the pieces to make Michigan State run circles around themselves this weekend. Ohio State is still trying to tidy up the resume to lock down a playoff spot and a win against a high-ranked Michigan State team would be a nice cherry on top for them. Stroud lacks the dual-threat ability we like to target, but 400+ yards passing is in the cards this weekend.
Aidan O’Connell, PUR – DK: $6,200 | FD: $9,400
From this point on in the quarterback section of this writeup, I am likely going to take quite a few shots at DraftKings pricing – I still love you guys, but you just really messed up this week and I am not sure what you are doing. Starting with O’Connell, he now has back-to-back weeks of 34 or more fantasy points. He passed for 536 against Michigan State and 390 against Ohio State and has a 76% completion percentage over his last five starts. While DraftKings did boost the price a little here, it is still too enticing of a price point to not roster this weekend. O’Connell is locked in and getting all of his receivers involved which has also boosted the value of guys like Jackson Anthrop and Milton Wright who also didn’t get large price increases. I will concede that a road matchup with Northwestern isn’t the prettiest environment ever, but O’Connell was able to hold up his end of the offense against Ohio State. However, Northwestern is going to nuke the pace here and I doubt we get rapid passing opprutunities. All that being said, which I don’t see 50+ attempts likely this weekend, there is still a lot to like in this price on DraftKings.
Sean Clifford, PSU – DK: $6,000 | FD: $9,000
If O’Connell isn’t your cup of tea this weekend, can I interest you in someone $200 cheaper, playing at home, against a worse team? Sean Clifford was a $8,200 priced quarterback at his peak this year and after 28.32 fantasy points against Maryland, Clifford got a price drop against Michigan but still managed 15.8 against them. Of course, that isn’t the production we are looking for, but Michigan is a pretty highly rated defense. So if the price drops for a bad matchup, you would think the price would go up for a good matchup? Well, wrong. Clifford is just $6,000 against a Rutgers team that ranks near the middle in every category this year. I’ve held true to the idea that Penn State has no idea what they are doing with their running game this year and Clifford is constantly being put into spots to succeed. This is another value-ridden play that does have some bust potential, but the reward outweighs the risk.
Phil Jurkovec, BC – DK: $4,500 | FD: $8,700
And welcome to our final stop of the “bad pricing” carousel and this one just takes the cake for us. Phil Jurkovec returned from injury two weeks ago to retake the starting reigns for Boston College. Against Virginia Tech in week 10, Jurkovec had a modest game only attempting 13 passes but he did run nine times for 65 yards. Last week against Georgia Tech, Jurkovec completed 13 of 20 for 310 yards and two touchdowns and ran eight times for 71 yards and three touchdowns. This led to Jurkovec to player of the week honors. Jurkovec is a large man who has dual-threat upside and is in my opinion one of the more slept on prospects in college football. So what is the reward for all of this? DraftKings priced him at a minimum price against Florida State at home. Don’t overthink it, don’t question it (well, actually question it a lot) but this ownership is going to be enormous but almost unfadeable to a point.
Kyren Williams, ND – DK: $8,000 | FD: $9,400
As most weeks we have a ton of great running back options on this slate but the best value among the top tier for me is Kyren Williams in a home matchup against Georgia Tech. Williams has gone over 27 fantasy points in four of his last five games, with the one being last week against Virginia in a 28-3 blowout where he wasn’t needed in the passing game. Over his last five games, Williams has 22 receptions and seven rushing touchdowns and this week’s matchup against Georgia Tech may be the friendliest over that stretch as the Jackets are allowing 450 yards per game and over 30 points. The worry here is the game getting out of hand and Williams giving up some rushes to the depth here but I do believe Georgia Tech is good enough (even with Jordan Yates) to keep the game within reach.
Leddie Brown, WV – DK: $6,200 | FD: $8,600
Leddie Brown has been frequent of this article and I will admit I have got him wrong a few times this year. The West Virginia offense isn’t that well-paced and inconsistent quarterback and defense play can sometimes really nuke the Brown share before it ever really gets started. However, he still has about a 95% share of the carries in the backfield by running backs and he has still seen 20 or more carries in three of his last four games. This week West Virginia gets a home game against Texas who will be without Bijan Robinson. The Longhorns feature one of the worst rush defenses in the nation, allowing over 200 yards rushing a game and 32.5 points in total. If Leddie Brown can’t piece it together this game then it will probably be the jumping-off point for me. We get Brown at a great price for the matchup here as Brown is a true workhorse at his position.
Roschon Johnson, TEX – DK: $3,800 | FD: $7,400
As mentioned above, Bijan Robinson is likely done for the year for Texas which removes one of the best players at his position from the equation. Robinson on the year had 1,127 yards rushing and 11 rushing touchdowns to go along with 26 reception and four receiving touchdowns. Replacing Robinson is next to impossible, but Texas has two very capable backs in Roschon Johnson and Keilan Robinson. Johnson is slated to take over as the lead back here and did see three receptions last week against Kansas. While the West Virginia defense is solid and is only allowing 126 yards rushing per game, the Texas offense is built around a rushing attack. I think both Johnson and Keilan Robinson should be used, but Johnson has the experience under his belt and his floor is pretty established already.
Jordan Addison, PITT – DK: $7,100 | FD: $9,300
Addison checks in as the third most expensive wide receiver on FanDuel yet the 11th on DraftKings with what is actually his cheapest price on DraftKings this entire season. Addison is tied for the NCAA lead for touchdown receptions at 12 and has 60 catches for 1,070 yards on the year. Addison has 34 targets over his last three games and is averaging around nine targets per game. Pitt gets a very friendly home matchup this week against a Virginia team who may still be without Brennan Armstrong. From a game script standpoint, we want Armstrong to suit up as that will bring the pace of this game way up. Regardless, the price here on Addison is just too low for his output and matchup.
Garrett Wilson, OSU – DK: $6,800 | FD: $9,400
Similar to the above, Wilson is the second most expensive option on FanDuel, but checks in as the 17th most expensive on DraftKings. I think there is a little bit too much stock put into Wilson’s performance from last week when he caught 10 passes for 126 and three touchdowns and also ran in a touchdown from 51 yards out. All that being said, I still think Wilson holds more stock in this offense at $6,800 compared to Jaxon Smith-Njigba who is priced at $7,900. If we back reference to what I said about CJ Stroud and the matchup against Michigan State here we may just be overthinking this. I don’t think there is anything that can separate Olave, Wilson, and Njigba here, they all have between a 21% and 23% target share in this offense. Olave is just $6,400 as well and could easily be the name above. An Ohio State stack with two of these three (and hell, maybe all three if they over-commit to the pass) are all in play this week. I don’t think there is a secret formula right now to be able to separate them, but I would make sure I am exposed to them all.
Jayden Reed, MSU – DK: $6,500 | FD: $7,700
Reed was in the midst of a quiet three-week stretch where he fell between 11-14 fantasy points against Indiana, Michigan, and Purdue but broke out last week against Maryland with eight catches for 114 yards and two touchdowns. Michigan State is a 19-point underdog this week to Ohio State this week, but Michigan State is still slated for around 26 points. Ohio State boasts a strong rush defense that is only allowing 107 yards per game and while I think Kenneth Walker is one of the tougher tests that Ohio State will face this year, the fact that the Spartans should be playing from behind should put the ball in Payton Thorne’s hand a bit more. Jalen Nailor is currently doubtful for this game so at worst we should get volume out of Reed here. While there are some other players I rather roster on DraftKings at that price, the FanDuel price feels very low here for a guy who has double-digit targets in three straight games.
Beaux Collins, CLEM – DK: $4,500 | FD: $5,900 & Dacari Collins, CLEM – DK: $3,500 | FD: $5,500
With Justyn Ross likely lost for the season and Joseph Ngata’s status likely out but still unclear, the Clemson offense is going to have to turn to their freshman in the receiving core. Last week against UConn it was the “Collins” experience, as freshman Dacari Collins and Beaux Collins led the way for the Tigers. Dacari was actually the leader in catches and yards with six receptions for 97 yards. Dacari stands at a 6’4″ frame, though his action last week was only the second time he saw the field this season. That being said, we are still awaiting a Clemson depth chart to emerge without Justyn Ross on it – as while he has been reported out for this weekend’s game, he is still on it. So while the size of Dacari and his lower price on DraftKings makes him interesting for me, Beaux Collins has been a little more consistent with 11 catches for 144 yards over his last two games with a touchdown in each. While the Tigers will probably lean on Will Shipley pretty heavily, the Wake Forest offense plays at a quick pace and also features a relatively poor defense. Clemson’s offense is not one to be trusted, but it is one with some value for the matchup here.